Heat's offseason presents many questions, some of which only Pat Riley can answer

New York Times

01-05-2025

What's next for the Heat?
Miami just concluded one of the most challenging seasons in franchise history with one of the worst playoff performances of all time. If you're concerned about that description being too harsh, don't worry — the Heat are being honest about coming up short, too. Their offseason probably begins with more questions than they answered and endured the regular season.
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Next week, team president Pat Riley is expected to address the media before Miami begins kicks off its offseason. With that offseason just about underway, let's examine the most prominent storylines and questions around the team's future.
This past season had everything for the Heat. Jimmy Butler entered the season saying he would focus on playing basketball, but his contract negotiations escalated to one of the NBA's biggest storylines as the season progressed. Throughout the season, the Heat weren't sure if/when Butler would practice, travel with the team or fully engage in games, and that left Spoelstra making fluid decisions more often than he probably ever has in 17 seasons as Heat head coach.
Once the Butler drama was nipped in February, there remained plenty of season for the Heat to turn things around, but adjusting to the midseason departure of a top-20 player is harder in application than theory. Miami proved that by going only 16-24 after trading Butler to the Golden State Warriors. Its regression bottomed out with the franchise's longest losing streak since 2008 (10 games) while finishing 10th in the Eastern Conference to barely qualify for the Play-In Tournament.
Although the Heat became the first No. 10 seed to reach the playoffs, their late-season push was undone by the most lopsided sweep in postseason history (minus-122 point differential against the Cleveland Cavaliers). For most coaches, especially one overseeing a sometimes stagnant offense such as Miami's, a season like this might induce concerns over job security, but Spoelstra is still in the early days of an eight-year contract extension he signed in January 2024. He's not going anywhere. But with the Cavaliers and defending champion Boston Celtics being the standard of the East, how would Spoelstra rate Miami's progress in seeking a return to the conference elite?
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'I'm not gonna rate it. We'd have to evaluate four or five different segments of the season,' Spoelstra said Wednesday. 'What I told the team was — and this is no type of moral message or victory — what you want out of a season is to come together for whatever reason and improve and do something. We were all faced with a very uncomfortable segment of the season — there are some other segments where it was what it was — but during the losing streak, we were playing great. We were making progress and losing games. … It could've gotten worse, but I think that's where we made our most improvement, was during that 10-game losing streak.
'We put ourselves out there. When you put yourselves out there as competitors, you put yourself out there for everything. And we deserve it. We deserve the criticism. We deserve the embarrassment. Those last two games, it's not what our organization is about. But we put ourselves out there to earn our right to go to the playoffs … We felt like it was going to lead to a lot more, and that was irrational on our part.'
One of the — if not the outright — most positive storyline for the Heat this season was Tyler Herro's leap to All-Star status. The 25-year-old guard posted career highs across the board, averaging bests in points (23.9), assists (5.5), 3-pointers per game (3.1), minutes (35.4), free-throw attempts (4.2) and true shooting percentage (60.5). Herro earned his first All-Star nod thanks to carrying Miami's offense up to that point, especially as he adjusted to heightened defensive attention during and after the Butler drama.
Unfortunately, though, Miami's offense finished outside the top 20 for the third consecutive season, and its struggles in late-game situations were a huge reason for the franchise's first losing season in a decade. Herro finished the season ranked third among all players in clutch-time shot attempts (104), but he shot only 30.8 percent on those looks as the Heat led the NBA in clutch-time losses (28).
'I learned closing games isn't as easy as some people make it look,' Herro said Wednesday. 'And that's my improvement this summer, is how I can figure out ways to help this team win games at the end of games — whether that's making a play for myself or making a play for a teammate.
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'But ultimately, just making the right and overall best play for the team. I think that's what I'll be working on this summer: a lot of film, a lot of studying the situations that went wrong this year, so when we're in those situations next year, we can turn those into wins instead of losses.'
Despite those struggles, Herro will soon be eligible for a contract extension that could pay him $50 million a year, and the Heat will have a key choice to consider. The NBA's most recent collective bargaining agreement almost acts as a hard cap, meaning teams can spend only so much money before roster construction becomes dicey. Without Butler in the fold, is Herro destined to be the leading man on the court and in terms of salary structure? That remains to be seen. The new money from an extension wouldn't kick in for another two seasons, but it's an inevitable debate that Miami must ponder as it shapes a new long-term identity.
Tyler Herro on his contract extension. Says it's ok if it doesn't get done by October. But laughs when he said that if it waits a year, 'it will be a little higher of a price.' pic.twitter.com/hoLu96UjPl
— Five Reasons Sports 🏀🏈⚾️🏒⚽️ (@5ReasonsSports) April 30, 2025
Heat could offer Tyler Herro a 3-year, $150M extension starting Oct. 1:
$46M in 2027-28
$50M in 2028-29
$54M in 2029-30
What should the Heat offer? pic.twitter.com/qoRq7cCKrb
— 𝙃𝙀𝘼𝙏 𝙉𝘼𝙏𝙄𝙊𝙉 (@HeatvsHaters) April 30, 2025
This season was only Adebayo's second as Heat team captain, but he earned his stripes as the Heat navigated their peaks and valleys. Adebayo preached all season about his teammates not letting go of the rope. Beyond the Butler situation, the Heat simply struggled with maintaining a game-to-game identity. Scoring droughts were commonplace. Their defense was strong for key stretches, but distinct lapses helped prove to be the difference between winning and losing many matchups.
Adebayo had his own ups and downs, most notably because he sought to space the floor more often by attempting more 3-pointers, but he caught fire well enough down the stretch to resemble the All-Star form many expect him to contribute. The biggest question is whether Miami can acquire more star power to put alongside Adebayo and/or Herro to return the Heat to contender status. After Monday's season-ending defeat, Adebayo expressed an expectation for Miami to have many changes this offseason because he trusts Riley to go star-hunting.
'At the end of the day, I wanna win, so I can't really go into logistics about the tweaks and everything,' Adebayo said Wednesday. 'I feel like that's more of a Pat Riley question, and I hope you can ask that question to him and he doesn't blow you off and ignore you.
'He knows my mentality. He knows I want to win. We want to be in the best way possible (position) to do that. After he talks to you, he'll probably talk to me, and we'll figure out what happens.'
Bam Adebayo asked what changes he'd like to see this summer after his game 4 comment postgame
'That's a Pat Riley question. I hope you can ask that question to him and he doesn't blow you off and ignore you' 😭 pic.twitter.com/twnGVyA8q7
— Heat Culture (@HeatCulture13) April 30, 2025
Would it be fun for Kevin Durant to stop by? Sure. Could Giannis Antetokounmpo's days in Milwaukee be numbered? It's possible. This past season illustrated why we should keep an open mind with the random possibilities that could lie ahead. Although this season was a dud, the Heat have enjoyed success with Adebayo as one of the team's most important players, so there is plenty of reason to believe the Heat can climb back up the East standings … if Riley and the front office can lure another big name to South Florida.
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With that being said, a big aspect of the Butler drama was his impatience with waiting for a star to join him on South Beach. Durant and Antetokounmpo? The team has tried that path before, but a host of first-round picks, promising young players and a clear vision could turn things around sooner than later, depending on the leverage Miami can craft after its disappointing season.
At 26 years old, Mitchell is still finding his way in the NBA, but he did a great job of filling in wherever the Heat needed him. Miami is Mitchell's third NBA team in four seasons, but he expressed his comfort with the Heat and a desire to return under the right circumstances, although he admittedly doesn't know what to expect from his first bout with free agency.
'I haven't really thought about or talked about it with my representation,' Mitchell said. 'I think that there's a long summer that we're going to have a lot of talks about it, and when we do, I'll be prepared for that. As of right now, I don't really know because I've never been in this situation before.'
Standing 6-foot-2, Mitchell is one of the league's most aggressive point-of-attack defenders and was very comfortable with filling in as a ballhandler (5.3 assists per game) and floor-spacer (44.7 percent from deep), so he should be expected to have suitors. His presence is key because he's comfortable pushing tempo, guarding an opponent's best perimeter players and driving the lane to create opportunities on offense.
It's possible he could get the midlevel exception from the right team (maybe the $14 million to $16 million range), but Miami should do what it can to retain him. He's an energetic player who seeks ways to improve, and even if fellow backup guard Dru Smith returns fine from his torn Achilles, the Heat would greatly benefit from stocking up on guard depth and further honing their versatility.
Throughout the season, Kel'el Ware showed promising flashes that helped him establish a presence in Spoelstra's rotation. People throughout the Heat organization often rave about Ware's upside and desire to learn.
In Wednesday's exit meetings, he was frank about how hard it was to adjust to the NBA's physicality, but he expects that to be his focus throughout the offseason. Spoelstra routinely spoke highly of the work Ware put in this season, but he also never pressured Ware to be something he isn't.
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'This will be an important summer for Kel'el,' Spoelstra said. 'These last six to eight weeks were really important for him — just the heightened pressure and expectations of us driving to get in the playoffs, the two Play-In games and the learning lesson from these four games.
'I'm grateful Kel'el was able to get these experiences and set up for a really important summer.'
Adebayo quipped all season about not playing much as a rookie, so Ware playing consistent minutes at all — let alone in the playoffs — can only aid his development.
If Ware is long for Miami's future, the Heat will need him to maximize every layer of his potential because of what he adds. His shot-blocking makes Adebayo an even more versatile and effective defender. Shooting from deep helps Spoelstra get a bit more creative on offense, given the overreactions Miami likes to force with cutters and aspiring floor-spacers. On occasion, Ware made highlight-worthy plays only a player with immense raw talent could pull off. His numbers were up and down throughout the season, but Miami looked incredibly formidable when Ware was at his best in Year 1.
Fellow rookie Pelle Larsson (44th overall) was also impressive at times. He was productive as a cutter, shooter, rebounder, finisher and hustle player, all of which are vital ingredients to being valuable for the Heat. Moreover, his early strides helped the Heat find immense value from what was seen as an underwhelming 2024 NBA Draft. Spoelstra routinely complimented Larsson for being a valuable rotation piece so quickly, especially when other teammates struggled to stay in the lineup.
For Nikola Jović and Jaime Jaquez Jr., staying in the rotation was a fleeting endeavor as they continued trying to find their way in the league. Both were candid about their inconsistencies throughout the season. Jović was frank about feeling the need to nail down his momentary lapses to become a steadier rotation piece, while Jaquez reflected on the struggles of going from promising rookie to struggling sophomore.
'I think I take a lot away,' Jaquez said. 'You can learn a lot about yourself. I think it was an extremely humbling experience. Sometimes, things don't go your way, and sometimes, only after do you realize why that happened to you. You know, I'm taking it all with me in the summer. Just going to get back to work. I'm happy I just got to spend this time with a great group of guys and enjoy moments off the court as well as on.'
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With a potentially huge summer looming, it remains to be seen who on Miami's roster is considered a given to return next season, but things might be clearer come next week, when Riley addresses the media and officially puts an end to one of the most challenging seasons in franchise history.