Brazil inflation estimated to have edged down in May
June 9 (Reuters) - Brazil's inflation is estimated to have edged down in May as a persistent rise in food and beverage prices took a break, a Reuters poll found.
Food inflation has begun to cool due to a large supply of foodstuffs from a good crop and rising cattle farming, coupled with the commercial impact of a bird flu outbreak leading to a glut on the domestic market.
Official data to be published on Tuesday will likely show inflation ran at a 0.33% monthly rate and 5.40% in the 12 months to May, according to median estimates of 19 economists polled June 4-9.
This would mark a decline from April's 0.43% monthly rate and 5.53% for the 12-month reading, the fastest annual clip since February 2023.
UBS analysts noted May's trajectory was driven by an energy price hike, while "(monthly) food inflation is likely to print close to zero, as it reaches its low season of May-August."
"Fresh food may already show prices falling, contributing 4 basis points to the downside", the bank's economists added.
Bi-weekly figures last month reflected price falls in categories like grains, fruits and vegetables as well as low increases in flour and milk.
Also, chicken prices dropped around 7% since the start of the bird-flu event, Brazil's Agriculture minister said last week. Exporters redirected poultry products to domestic consumers after a slew of international bans.
Still, the 12-month inflation gauge is set to come in for the 8th consecutive month above the government's target of 3% plus/minus 1.5 percentage points.
Beyond food and energy trends, services have been a key factor behind Brazil's sticky inflation recently, with a resilient job market pushing up the sector's costs.
However, core services inflation probably moderated to a 0.35% monthly rate in May from 0.61% in April, Barclays said in a report.
This would support growing views the economy is slowing down, a process expected to become clearer in the second half of the year.
The nascent deceleration is the result of a monetary tightening campaign that last month brought up Brazil's benchmark interest rate to 14.75%, a near-two decade high.
The central bank is maintaining a data-driven approach for its June rate-setting meeting, without committing to a specific policy path, governor Gabriel Galipolo said on Saturday.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Daily Mail
2 hours ago
- Daily Mail
Inflation is so high, even Rachel Reeves's voice is going up: Chancellor suffers from technical gaffe as inflation surges to 3.5% - far higher than expected as Labour's economy spinsout of control
Rachel Reeves demonstrated it isn't just inflation soaring higher today as she was seen on TV defending her economic record in a bizarre falsetto. An unfortunate technical error meant the under-fire Chancellor's response to a dramatic spike in prices was delivered in a tone more akin to Mickey Mouse. The episode left Sky News presenter Wilfred Frost - son of Sir David - briefly dumbfounded before he said: 'I think we have a problem...' Ms Reeves said: 'The numbers today are clearly disappointing. We want to see inflation coming down after the cost of living challenges that people have been through these last few years.' Her voice was then silenced entirely as broadcast bosses realised things were going awry. The glitch sparked hilarity on social media, with users comparing the rise in Ms Reeves's voice to Labour party policies which have caused 'ballooning national debt'. Speaking to Sky News , Ms Reeves said: 'The numbers today are clearly disappointing. We want to see inflation coming down after the cost of living challenges that people have been through these last few years' Ms Reeves was facing the music after headline CPI rate rocketed from 2.6 per cent in March to 3.5 per cent last month, a peak not seen since January 2024. Worryingly, it was significantly more than the 3.3 per cent analysts had pencilled in, with Ms Reeves acknowledging the figures were 'disappointing' and her national insurance hikes were partly to blame. Core CPI - excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco - was also at the highest for a year. The grim data will fuel Bank of England concerns about underling pressures, with chief economist Huw Pill having already warned that interest rate cuts have been too fast. Experts immediately suggested that Threadneedle Street might pause reductions at the next monetary policy committee meeting next month. The Bank had forecast that inflation would top out at 3.5 per cent in the third quarter of the year. The spike comes after Ofgem 's energy price cap rose by 6.4 per cent in April, having fallen a year earlier. That was alongside a raft of bill rises for struggling households, including steep increases to water charges, council tax, mobile and broadband tariffs. Meanwhile, Labour's NICs and minimum wage increases will have been stoking pressure in the system. Office of National Statistics (ONS) acting director-general Grant Fitzner said: 'Significant increases in household bills caused inflation to climb steeply. 'Gas and electricity bills rose this month compared with sharp falls at the same time last year due to changes to the Ofgem energy price cap. 'Water and sewerage bills also rose strongly this year, as did vehicle excise duty, which all pushed the headline rate up to its highest level since the beginning of last year.' Ms Reeves said: 'I am disappointed with these figures because I know cost of living pressures are still weighing down on working people. 'We are a long way from the double-digit inflation we saw under the previous administration, but I'm determined that we go further and faster to put more money in people's pockets. 'That's why we have increased the minimum wage for millions of working people, frozen fuel duty to protect commuters and struck three trade deals in the past two weeks that will go towards cutting bills.' Asked if the inflation figures had been pushed up by measures including the NICs hike, Ms Reeves said: 'When I became Chancellor last year, I faced the very difficult challenge that there was a £22billion black hole in the public finances. 'We had to fix that, and if we hadn't have done the Bank of England would not have been able to cut interest rates four times this last year, which has obviously had a direct effect on the mortgages and the rents that people pay. 'And also that money that we raised from national insurance, but also cracking down on non-doms, tax - VAT - on private schools, increasing capital gains, particularly on private equity firms, that money has gone into our National Health Service, which is why waiting lists and waiting times are going down after spiralling out of control the last few years. 'So I do recognise that all policies have consequences, but if I hadn't have acted to stabilise the public finances, we would be in a worse position today.' However, shadow chancellor Sir Mel Stride squarely blamed Ms Reeves for the hike in inflation. He said: 'This morning's news that inflation is up - and now well above the 2 per cent target - is worrying for families. 'We left Labour with inflation bang on target, but Labour's economic mismanagement is pushing up the cost of living for families - on top of the £3,500 hit to households from the Chancellor's damaging jobs tax. 'Higher inflation could also mean interest rates stay higher for longer, hitting family finances hard. 'Families are paying the price for the Labour Chancellor's choices.' Speaking at an event held at Barclays in London yesterday, Mr Pill said the pace of interest rate reductions since August last year has been 'too rapid'. He said progress of 'disinflation' was partly a signal that easing monetary policy – meaning rates coming down – was working. 'And in my view, that withdrawal of policy restriction has been running a little too fast of late, given the progress achieved thus far with returning inflation to target on a lasting basis.' 'I remain concerned about upside risks to the achievement of the inflation target,' he added. Mr Pill, who is a member of the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), was among the members to vote against cutting rates to 4.25 per cent, instead preferring to leave them unchanged. The bank's base rate has come down from a peak of 5.25 per cent, when it was hiked to try to quell surging inflation across the UK. He said his vote to hold interest rates at this month's policy meeting was more of a 'skip' than a 'halt' in rate cuts. This reflects his view that the 'pace of bank rate reduction should be 'cautious', running slower than the 25bp (basis points) per quarter we have implemented since last August', the economist said. 'That requires a 'skip' in that quarterly pattern at some point. And I decided that the May meeting was an appropriate moment for that 'skip'.' Meanwhile, Mr Pill stressed that he was concerned about inflation persistence – meaning price rises remaining elevated – which would mean 'you need to run the economy a little bit cooler'. 'That's an uncomfortable message, but it may be an important message for policymakers with inflation targets to normalise,' he said. 'I do worry about the fact that inflation has stayed stubbornly high, and pay dynamics have stayed stubbornly strong, even as activity has been relatively disappointing… over the last two to three years. 'So that's what I worry about… and I think that does influence the way I vote in the committee as an individual.' Daniel Casali, chief investment strategist at wealth manager Evelyn Partners, said: 'This acceleration in inflation for April was driven by a triple-whammy of factors. One, large indexed and regulated price increases, including mobile phone charges, vehicle excise duty, and water and energy bills. 'Two, a later-than-usual Easter weekend, which lifted airfare and accommodation prices, and three, businesses passing on the higher National Minimum Wage and employers' National Insurance (NI) contributions to consumers... 'If inflation exceeds expectations – as today's figure suggests it could - the MPC could well delay a further interest rate cut at its next meeting on June 19, particularly if news on the real economy remains stable.'
Finextra
3 hours ago
- Finextra
LSEG to provide trading technology to Brazilian digital exchange A5X
LSEG (London Stock Exchange Group) today announced that it has signed a strategic agreement to provide its trading, clearing, and market surveillance technology to A5X, S.A. (A5X), Brazil's first next-generation derivatives and futures exchange of its kind. 0 This announcement follows intensive joint design efforts to tailor LSEG's systems specifically for the Brazilian market, regulators, and A5X's unique requirements, a critical step in the platform's development and a key enabler of its swift and successful deployment. Under the agreement, LSEG will deliver its integrated market infrastructure technology suite, including pre-trade risk management, ultra-low latency matching engine, market data distribution and real-time surveillance, and will provide end-to-end post-trade platform including clearing, settlement, and risk management. A5X will operate LSEG's suite, integrating it into its state-of-the-art technology ecosystem. Designed for rapid configuration and seamless upgrades, the combined solution brings a powerful technology stack to the Brazilian market to help drive growth, liquidity, and innovation. Ron Lefferts, Group Head of Sales & Account Management, LSEG: 'As Brazil's economy grows and its markets continue to evolve, LSEG will deploy its real-time insights, performance analytics, and market infrastructure expertise to empower A5X in its journey of creating a more robust, innovative and efficient market in Brazil. Embedded in financial systems worldwide, our technology powers economies by strengthening market resilience, supporting compliance, and enabling traders to make data-driven decisions.' Carlos Ferreira, Chief Executive Officer, A5X: "We are incredibly honored to have the opportunity to bring LSEG to our side on the journey of creating a more efficient and innovative market in Brazil, driving growth and transformation. A5X was born to improve the experience of all investors in Brazil and the technology partnership with LSEG, combined with the access to its deep knowledge of global markets and products, materially strengthens our position to achieve this goal.' A5X aims to be ready for regulatory testing by Q4 2025 and for commercial launch of the new platform in H1 2026. The partnership lays the groundwork for a seamless, end to end derivatives and futures ecosystem in Brazil and this could significantly reshape Brazil's financial landscape, designed to accelerate product innovation, enhance price discovery and streamline operational risk across the trade lifecycle.
Reuters
5 hours ago
- Reuters
NY Fed finds moderating inflation expectations in May
June 9 (Reuters) - Americans' anxiety about the future path of inflation eased in May, as they also grew more upbeat about the state of their personal finances, a report released on Monday by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said. The bank reported in its Survey of Consumer Expectations for May that the outlook for inflation across all the horizons it measures retreated. A year from now, survey respondents see inflation at 3.2% versus 3.6% in April, while three years from now it's seen at 3% versus 3.2%. Five years from now, inflation is projected at 2.6% from the prior month's 2.7%. The report found that survey respondents are expecting moderating price gains for gas, rent, medical care and college, while food costs a year from now are seen rising at a 5.5% rate, the highest mark since October 2023. Meanwhile, in May the year- ahead expected rise in house prices stood at 3%, down from April's 3.3%. The moderation in the outlook for inflation took place against a background of high uncertainty over the future of price pressures. Huge and ever-shifting tax hikes on imports imposed by the Trump administration are broadly expected by economists and policymakers to push up inflation, while depressing hiring and growth. The major question is whether the gain is a one-off or the makings of something more persistent. There's been little clarity on how much those tariffs will impact the economy, especially as President Donald Trump raises and lowers his import levies unpredictably. The survey period for the New York Fed report overlapped some of the biggest shifts on tariffs, and the moderation in May's readings will likely bolster officials' confidence that inflation is not fixing for an extended breakout to higher levels. The Fed is set to meet to deliberate on monetary policy on June 17-18 in a gathering that will almost certainly see the central bank leave its interest rate range steady at between 4.25% and 4.5%. Inflation remains above the 2% target and is not expected to moderate to desired levels any time soon, in an otherwise healthy economy. The New York Fed report also found that expectations of moderating future inflation gains came as households also upgraded their views on their incomes, earnings, hiring prospects and finances. The survey found 'slightly' improved views on households' views of their current financial situation in May, as respondents said access to credit improved relative to last year, while expectations of missing a debt payment declined.
