Is Mikko Rantanen a bad fit with Hurricanes? Only if you're not paying attention

New York Times

22-02-2025

The fact is, Mikko Rantanen doesn't really know whether he likes Raleigh yet. He's barely spent any time there. Four of his first six games with the Carolina Hurricanes were on the road, and then it was off to Montreal for the 4 Nations Face-Off. Sebastian Aho invited Rantanen over for dinner Thursday night, but he hasn't exactly had a good opportunity to drive his old friend and new teammate around town and show him all the best restaurants and hidden gems.
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And no, Aho didn't spend all his time in Montreal and Boston giving Rantanen the hard sell on sticking around for, say, eight more seasons.
'I leave him alone, mostly,' Aho said. 'It's probably a big shock to get traded midseason, so I just try to be there as a friend and help him off the ice. If he needs help figuring out where to eat, I'll help with that. Normal stuff. It's quite a lot to jump to a new city and a new team.'
It's been an eventful month for Rantanen, who's still just trying to get his bearings. That might be why he can only laugh when the idea of his being flipped again before the March 7 trade deadline — something Sportsnet's Elliotte Friedman floated rather seriously on his '32 Thoughts' podcast Friday.
'I understand people are speculating and stuff like that, it's normal,' Rantanen told The Athletic later that day. 'I don't worry about that. I just try to focus on what happens on the ice.'
Could Rantanen be moved again? Sure. He's still a pending unrestricted free agent, and the Hurricanes could lose him for nothing this summer if they can't re-sign him. It's why the Colorado Avalanche traded him to Carolina in the first place. And frankly, Rantanen hasn't produced the way he's expected to in Carolina. So, yeah, the Hurricanes could feasibly deal Rantanen away.
But a better question is: Why would they?
It's true Rantanen has just one goal and one assist in his first six games with the Hurricanes, far below the 100-point pace to which he's become accustomed. And the Hurricanes have lost four of the six games he's played in, including the last three. It's led to the inevitable rending of garments and gnashing of teeth around the league. Is he a bad fit in Rod Brind'Amour's unique system? Were his stats inflated by playing alongside Nathan MacKinnon in Colorado? Did the Hurricanes make a massive mistake dealing away Martin Necas, who is two years younger, is signed for next season and just so happens to have four goals and five assists in eight games with the Avalanche?
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Well, all you have to do is watch a single Hurricanes game to realize Rantanen is doing just fine and has been far more dynamic than the counting stats suggest.
'Mikko has been fantastic,' Hurricanes general manager Eric Tulsky said. 'He has fit in very well to the way we play, creating some tremendous chances around the net for himself and his linemates. A couple of posts and some great saves have kept it from showing up on the scoresheet yet, but we can all see that the points will come. He has been exactly what we had hoped for on the ice, and off the ice, he has been a great addition to our locker room.'
Tulsky is as analytically driven as any GM in league history, and the data certainly backs up that rosy picture just as well as the eye test does. It's a small sample, of course, but Rantanen leads the Hurricanes in shots per 60 minutes, individual attempts per 60, individual expected goals per 60, individual scoring chances per 60, rebounds created per 60 and takeaways per 60 (per Natural Stat Trick). And in every key metric, Rantanen has dramatically improved from how he fared in Colorado over the first 49 games of the season.
Expected-goals share? Up from 51.86 percent to 63.44.
Scoring-chance share? Up from 55.66 percent to 72.73 (a whopping 64-24 edge at five-on-five).
High-danger chance share? Up from 47.52 percent to 61.54 (24-15).
Compared with his numbers in Colorado, Rantanen is averaging nearly five more shots per 60 minutes, 0.4 more expected individual goals per 60, more than six more individual shots per 60, more than two more rebounds created per 60, and more than one more takeaway per 60. Now, it's worth pointing out that Brind'Amour's aggressive, high-volume system can be flattering to just about any player. But Rantanen's underlying numbers are staggering.
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The one that isn't? Shooting percentage — down from 11.49 in Colorado to just 6.67 in Carolina.
In other words, Rantanen is due.
'We've definitely had some chances and looks,' said Aho, Rantanen's center on the Hurricanes' top line. 'I don't know if it's puck luck or what. Sometimes you try too hard because you want to succeed right away so bad, so maybe you're not relaxed when you have a chance. But he's an unbelievable hockey player. He's fit right in.'
Here's just a smattering of grade A chances Rantanen has had or has created.
Some players are completely unfazed by a scoring drought as long as the chances are there. Other players just need to see the puck go in and can crawl inside their own heads when it's not, no matter how well they're playing.
Rantanen said he's somewhere in between.
'Obviously, it's frustrating, especially when you lose games,' he said. 'We lost three in a row there. You just try to stay calm, though. As long as you're getting chances and creating, you know eventually it's going to start going in. It's hard sometimes not to get frustrated, but that's the key. If you can keep working and stay calm in those moments, it's going to pay out at some point.'
Playing in the Western Conference his whole career, Rantanen only saw the Hurricanes twice a season. But he always found them particularly maddening to play against, because between their speed and their relentless forecheck, there was never any room to operate.
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Now that he's on Brind'Amour's side, he's suddenly a big fan.
'He's obviously a really good coach, and all the guys buy into his stuff,' Rantanen said. 'You can tell he was a very good player because he understands the game really well.'
Aho has seen plenty of players come and go during his nine seasons in Carolina. Some players have had trouble adjusting, others haven't. So are the Hurricanes particularly difficult for newcomers?
'Mikko's a smart hockey player,' Aho said. 'So for him, it's not. Really, I don't think it's that complicated. He's already figured out the system.'
Brind'Amour has been generally pleased with Rantanen's play so far but acknowledged there's always an adjustment period.
'He's a great player, he's going to fit anywhere,' Brind'Amour said. 'And I think he's adapting his game a little to what we do, how he has to play. And that takes time. … But I think he's getting more and more comfortable every day.'
Comfortable enough to stick around eight more seasons? That's the big question. And it's one Rantanen — who could command a contract akin to Leon Draisaitl's eight-year, $112 million deal on the open market — is still mulling.
In the very near future, the numbers suggest Rantanen is due for a points spree. In the longer term, he has a different kind of windfall coming his way. It's just a matter of where.
'You think about it,' he said. 'But with the 4 Nations, I just had a week and a half thinking about Team Finland stuff. Now we're back, but I haven't really had too much time to sit down and really think. For now, I'm just trying to focus on the games and try to help the team here. But eventually, you've got to think about the future.'
(Photo of Sebastian Aho and Mikko Rantanen: Bruce Bennett / Getty Images)