How many hurricanes could there be in 2025? Will and impact Tennessee? NOAA's predictions
Hurricane season is here.
June 1 marks the beginning of hurricane season in the Gulf of Mexico, renamed by the U.S. government as Gulf of America in 2025, and the Atlantic Ocean.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts that this hurricane season could be particularly active. There is 30% chance of a near-normal season, a 60% chance of an above-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season, according to forecasts
The agency forecasts that there could be between 13 and 19 named storms in the 2025 hurricane season. Of those, three to five could be major hurricanes.
As an inland state, historically, Tennessee has not needed to pay too much attention to hurricane season. However, in the wake of Tropical Storm Helene's widespread devastation in the region, hurricane season is at the forefront of the mind for many in the Volunteer State.
Helene greatly damaged infrastructure and roads in the eastern part of the state. The storm and the residual floods killed 18 people in Tennessee alone.
'As we witnessed last year with significant inland flooding from hurricanes Helene and Debby, the impacts of hurricanes can reach far beyond coastal communities,' said acting NOAA Administrator Laura Grimm. 'NOAA is critical for the delivery of early and accurate forecasts and warnings, and provides the scientific expertise needed to save lives and property.'
Hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean runs from June 1 through Nov. 30, according to the NOAA.
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A major hurricane is considered a named storm with maximum sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or higher. According to the NOAA, Category 3, Category 4 and Category 5 storms are major hurricanes.
There is a 21% chance for another tropical storm to reach Tennessee in 2025, according to Colorado State University research. The university also released a hurricane season forecast in April.
The probability of a tropical storm in Tennessee this season is slightly greater than the 141-year historical average of 17%, according to Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University. There have been 26 tropical storms within 50 miles of the Volunteer State from 1880 to 2020.
Compared to other states in the southeast, the chances of tropical storms hitting the Volunteer State appear especially slim. Florida has a 92% chance of seeing a named storm in 2025 and a 35% chance of seeing a major hurricane.
Tennessee's neighbors to the south, Alabama and Georgia, have a 72% and 67% chance, respectively, of being hit by a named storm this season, according to Colorado State University research. Mississippi has a 62% of seeing a named storm in 2025.
This article originally appeared on Knoxville News Sentinel: When's hurricane season? NOAA tropical storm, hurricane predictions 2025
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