NASCAR Cup Series at Mexico City odds, expert predictions for Viva Mexico 250

New York Times

13 hours ago

The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Mexico City for its first-ever event in Mexico and its first international points race in over six decades. The track is most known for hosting Formula One races, but NASCAR drivers will use a slightly altered 2.49-mile layout compared to F1's 2.67-mile layout, and they'll have to complete 29 more laps than the F1 race.
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It's a massive event, with high stakes for the league's work to expand internationally. Plus, a brand-new track for the Cup Series brings new intrigue and unpredictability to this weekend's race.
We're bringing our questions about the race — who could excel on the track, what the high altitude could mean for teams, etc. — to our motorsports experts, Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi.
Take it away, guys!
I have to start with this softball: How hyped are you for the first-ever NASCAR Cup Series points race in Mexico?
Jeff: My overriding emotion going into this whole experience is curiosity. I'm curious to see how the Mexican fans react — will they show up in huge numbers and bring the enthusiasm we see at Formula One races? — and how the Mexican media covers it. I'm curious to see what NASCAR drivers think of the city and the racetrack and whether they would like to return. I'm curious to see what the team members, many of whom seem somewhat skeptical about foreign travel, take away from the event. And how will the racing be? So while I'm excited, I'm also just interested in the unknowns.
Jordan: Should be an electric, festive atmosphere with an environment that hopefully elevates the race to the point that people watching at home get the sense of just how big a deal this race is. Because NASCAR adding Mexico City to the schedule is a big deal. This is the first time since 1958 that NASCAR's premier series has raced outside the continental United States, and having an international points race is something NASCAR and many of its teams have sought to accomplish for some time. So the fact that they were able to pull it off is commendable.
Jeff shared some insights this week into how drivers and teams are preparing for the altitude in Mexico City. Which teams do you think stand to gain the most advantage from this change? Who adapts best? Does it help even the playing field or exacerbate disparities?
Jeff: I personally think the altitude thing is overblown in terms of the athletes. As a Denver resident who lives at 5,280 feet, I don't think 7,300 feet will be much of a shock to these drivers' bodies. Sure, they might get out of breath a little bit quicker. But it's not like they're climbing Everest here. That said, I don't fault anyone (like the Toyota drivers) who are preparing as much as they can; why not, right? Better safe than sorry. I think the bigger issue is the engines running hotter and generating less horsepower, which the engine builders and tuners will have to figure out. But it's hard to tell who could benefit.
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Jordan: When you look back at the four-year stretch when the Xfinity Series raced at Mexico City (2005-08), the altitude didn't seem to have much effect on either the drivers or the cars' performance. And with nearly every driver in good shape, the expectation is that they should be able to adapt to conditions that will be unlike any they face throughout the season. Whether this also applies to the cars' performance or not, we'll see. One issue to be mindful of is the concern many teams have regarding overheating the engine, as the high altitude can put a strain on this, especially during caution laps when engine temperatures tend to rise more due to reduced air circulation brought on by the slower laps. If there are a number of cautions on Sunday, don't be surprised if some teams begin to fight mechanical gremlins.
I love a sports crossover moment, so I really enjoyed reading your account of Chase Briscoe drawing inspiration from the Indiana Pacers' clutch play in the NBA playoffs. What is the outlook for Briscoe over the next several races? With his three consecutive starts in pole position, what's not connecting for Briscoe in his races? Do any other drivers strike you as a Pacers' comp in terms of surprising us with a second-half surge?
Jeff: It's clear Briscoe has speed, but the team doesn't seem to be able to keep up with the track during the race, and they have faded (or had bad things happen). But it was only a month ago that Briscoe said he was finally getting the feel of the Joe Gibbs Racing cars after joining the team in the offseason; he still has time to put it all together and win a race before the playoffs (thus eliminating the points-bubble talk). In terms of other drivers who could be a 'We should have never counted this person out!' Pacers-like performer? I'll go with Brad Keselowski. He's had a horrible start to the year, but has shown enough flashes of speed lately that you could see him jumping up and salvaging the season with a victory before the playoffs.
Jordan: Briscoe has had a good start to his first season with Joe Gibbs Racing. He's won a series-best four poles, his six top-five finishes rank sixth best, and he is 21 points above the cut line to make the playoffs. But the one thing Briscoe has yet to do is win, and this, ultimately, is likely going to define whether his first season with Joe Gibbs Racing is deemed successful. His team has had speed most weeks, especially on intermediate-sized tracks, and now they have to convert this speed into consistent top-end results.
Who is your favorite to win this week?
Jeff: This is going to be tough as we sit here before seeing any practice, as this is NASCAR's inaugural visit to the track. In addition, the Xfinity Series race here in the mid-2000s (the last of which was won by Kyle Busch) had a different layout. But without the ability to see who unloads fastest and gets up to speed quickly, I'll jump on board with Tyler Reddick. Yes, it's tempting to pick Shane van Gisbergen — but he's a fairly significant favorite, and sometimes that can be a trap. Reddick has won four career road course poles, including the inaugural NASCAR race at the other shared F1 track, Circuit of the Americas (COTA) in Austin. He has never finished outside the top 10 when he wins a road-course pole. If you look at his team as a whole, including the pit crew, it is stronger than SVG's. Maybe I'm talking myself into it just to pick someone other than SVG, but Reddick is a good choice.
Jordan: This is actually a more wide-open race than many think, and a good case could be made for any number of drivers. Denny Hamlin would have been near the top of the list, but won't race due to the birth of his son. Reddick is certainly up there, and so too are Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson, Chris Buescher, Kyle Busch and Christopher Bell. But this is also a great opportunity for the likes of van Gisbergen and AJ Allmendinger, two drivers who excel on road courses and likely need a win to make the playoffs. So, forced to go with a pick, let's go with van Gisbergen. He should have little issue getting up to speed, and his team knows they need to win and that points are rather meaningless, which allows them to set up their strategy accordingly. All the unknowns favor a driver who won the last time NASCAR visited a track so different than what NASCAR typically races on (the Chicago street course).
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Who is a long shot you like?
Jeff: Looking at the odds list, the lowest I'd go is Briscoe at +4000. He's a good road racer and will have a fast car, so he should be higher than that. Austin Cindric has the same odds and is another solid pick on road courses, but he had a very disappointing outing at COTA earlier this season, which gives me pause. But there are plenty of excellent road racers with so-so odds who could win: Michael McDowell at +2500, Ty Gibbs at +3000. Heck, Alex Bowman is +3000 and won the Chicago street course race last year.
Jordan: Austin Cindric at +3500 is enticing, considering the Team Penske driver comes from a road-course background and should be among the contenders on Sunday. Don't overlook Bowman, who may be in a slump but did surprise everyone by winning at Chicago last year. And Kyle Busch at +1400 has good value considering he nearly won at COTA earlier this year.
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(Photo of Daniel Suarez: James Gilbert / Getty Images)