Mike Waltz's demotion threatens grave consequences for America's allies
The reassignment of Mike Waltz from his post as Donald Trump's national security adviser to the job of ambassador to the United Nations could signal a shift in Trump's foreign policy – or it may just show that infighting among the rival factions is only getting worse.
A highly decorated former Army Special Forces veteran of Afghanistan and adviser to Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld, and Robert Gates, before succeeding Ron DeSantis in Congress, Waltz has long staked out hawkish views of the threats posed by China and Iran. That put him at odds with the increasingly vocal dovish faction in the administration, which includes vice-president JD Vance and director of national intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, as well as close Vance ally Donald Trump Jr.
Waltz's demotion leaves the more hawkish Secretary of State Marco Rubio largely isolated in Trump's national security team; Rubio will now serve as interim national security adviser as well as Secretary of State, acting national archivist, and interim head of the United States Agency for International Development.
Waltz wasn't necessarily demoted over his ideas. He has been on shaky ground ever since accidentally adding Atlantic editor Jeffrey Goldberg to a Signal chat in which details of an upcoming strike on the Houthis were discussed. Defence secretary Pete Hegseth, also under fire for sharing sensitive combat plans in that chat and another, has survived thus far, but over a dozen members of his inner circle have already lost their jobs amid controversies over press leaks. Although more broadly aligned with the doves, Hegseth is increasingly mistrusted by both factions.
Neither bloc is monolithic. Both groups include 'China Firsters' who want the United States to de-emphasise Europe and the Middle East in order to prepare for a future confrontation with China over Taiwan. Among the doves, some remain closely aligned with Israel, while others favour an Obama-style agenda of rapprochement with Iran and distance from Israel.
Some doves want Europe to take the lead in confronting Russia (another echo of Obama's 'leading from behind' ethos), while others believe it is feasible to eliminate tensions between Washington and Moscow. There are also divisions over how aggressively to use American force against Mexican drug cartels. Rubio and Waltz have both advocated a more intensive focus on the Western Hemisphere, and in particular on countering Chinese influence south of the Rio Grande.
Trump himself ran on stridently dovish, isolationist rhetoric in 2016, but proved more hawkish in office during his first term. He backed Israel to the hilt, put tough sanctions on Russia, sent lethal aid to Ukraine, and authorised the strike that killed Iranian Quds Force commander Qassim Soleimani. He withdrew from Obama's 'Iran Deal,' which paid off the mullahs to pretend to disarm their nuclear programme, and hesitated to pull out of Afghanistan, although he struck agreements with the Taliban that set the stage for Joe Biden's decision to withdraw.
This time, however, Trump has done away with the bevy of generals that surrounded him previously, and replaced hawkish advisers such as Mike Pence, Mike Pompeo, and Nikki Haley with people more in line with his earlier rhetorical emphasis. The departure of Waltz raises the prospect that Trump's administration will finally put the doves firmly in the saddle.
That could have grave consequences. Trump has increasingly taken Russia's side in its public arguments, but has yet to entirely abandon Ukraine, even inking on Wednesday the mineral-rights deal that had previously collapsed in a contentious Oval Office meeting between Trump, Vance, and Volodymyr Zelensky.
But the prospect of forcing a harsh peace on Ukraine that disarms it and paves the way for its future absorption by Russia may still be on the table. So is a revival of the Obama-era Iran Deal that would leave in place the Islamic Republic's 'peaceful' nuclear capacity. Trump's refusal to enforce the congressional statute requiring an end to Chinese operation of TikTok could also be an early warning that he will shrink from confronting Xi Jinping.
Predicting ideological consistency from Trump is never a sure bet. But the odds just rose that America's allies around the world could find themselves on their own.
Dan McLaughlin is senior writer at National Review
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