A cold winter stalls New England's recovery from summer-fall drought
By comparison, last winter was much warmer: The season delivered well above-average temperatures across all six New England states, reaching 5 degrees above the climatological average and resulting in far more rain than snow falling across the region. Meanwhile, this winter's average temperature in New England is actually pacing below the norm by about a half degree, something that hasn't happened since the winter of 2018-19 (the average temperature slipped 0.38 degrees below normal that season). The colder winter has also meant more rounds of snow from passing storms, hindering an already slow drought recovery.
As a result, parts of New England remain in some level of drought - currently moderate to severe drought, with the worst conditions across Southern New England, according to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor report released Thursday.
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'We track streamflow, groundwater, and how much water is getting into lakes and ponds,' said Vandana Rao, director of water policy for Massachusetts. 'Recently, we've seen precipitation events mostly come in the form of snow, but the moisture we need is locked up in the snow, preventing any immediate impacts with continuing decreasing water levels.'
Much of the state has seen water-level deficits reach 8 to 13 inches since the onset of drought in late August. And the cold air is really to blame. Snowmelt isn't occurring and with frozen topsoil, any melting struggles to actually get into the ground.
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The lack of intensity from the storms our region has been seeing in January and February, with dry spells in between, has worsened the problem.
'It has been a drier than normal winter, even with the recent precipitation events, and what has been alarming throughout the region is that when we have hit dry patches, groundwater and well water supplies have dropped much more rapidly, telling us that there are underlying drought issues that are going to take some time to resolve,' said Brian Fuchs, a climatologist at the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln.
If this active weather pattern continues, Fuchs said, there could 'be good opportunities to see the drought intensity ease and in some cases, it will be removed completely.'
But right now, he said, with 'snow staying on the ground along with frozen soils, it is very hard to see that precipitation absorbed into the local hydrologic systems.'
And with a double-digit deficit continuing, it's going to take persistent weather patterns producing rain instead of snow to pull Massachusetts and much of the region out of the drought.
The decrease in water use for landscaping, pool and other recreational needs as well as agricultural needs does help, according to Rao.
There is light at the end of the tunnel as we work closer to spring and more rainstorms may head our way. It'll come down to storm track, which this winter has favored more of an inside track, limiting warmer air and moisture needed for rain to push into the region. Our storms have been relatively mild, although conditions may likely change in the coming weeks.
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In fact,
'The upcoming rain could help increase streamflows and perhaps river levels, though it would take more frequent precipitation for a meaningful improvement,' said Brad Pugh, meteorologist with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.
New England is likely to end the month at average or above in terms of precipitation.
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Looking ahead, Pugh added, 'Our seasonal drought outlook calls for improving conditions and even drought removal in some areas.' He predicts New England could see improving drought conditions over the next couple of months.
Globe correspondent Chris Gloninger contributed to this report.
Ken Mahan can be reached at
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