You are more likely to be hit by lightning than the Pacers were to win their playoff comebacks
When the Indiana Pacers trailed the Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points with 2 minutes and 52 seconds left in Game 1 of the NBA Finals, ESPN's win probability model gave the Pacers only a 3.6% chance to win.
Not only did the Pacers overcome that deficit to win 111-110 and take a 1-0 lead in the series, that wasn't even Indiana's most improbable comeback this postseason.
The Pacers have become the masters of the come-from-behind victory in the 2025 playoffs, pulling off at least one miracle in each round.
In Game 5 of the conference quarterfinals, Indiana overcame a 7-point deficit against the Milwaukee Bucks in the final 39 seconds of overtime — when the Pacers' odds of winning were only 2.1% — and won 119-118.
In Game 2 of the conference semifinals, Indiana had only a 4.1% chance of winning when it trailed the Cleveland Cavaliers by 7 with 57.1 seconds to go, but the Pacers ultimately won 120-119.
And in Game 1 of the conference finals, Indiana pulled off a never-before-seen comeback against the New York Knicks, rallying from 14 points down with 2 minutes and 51 seconds to go in the fourth quarter before winning 138-135 in overtime — the odds of which were 0.3%.
While winning even one of these games was a highly improbable task for the Pacers, winning all four was extremely unlikely.
How unlikely, exactly? Well, you'd have a better chance of being struck by lightning, for starters.
Here's how the Pacers' four biggest comebacks stack up against some other rare events.
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The Herald Scotland
3 hours ago
- The Herald Scotland
Pacers won't win NBA title by relying on crazy comebacks
After wasting an opportunity to win Game 1, the Thunder were left with a bitter aftertaste against the never-quite Pacers. The Thunder devoured the Pacers in Game 2 Sunday, June 8, evening the NBA Finals with a 123-107 victory. ANALYSIS: Tyrese Haliburton NBA postseason heroics renew debate. Does 'clutch' play exist? While the Pacers stole home-court advantage, they haven't played great and it's starting to become an issue as the series moves to Indianapolis for Games 3 and 4. "Another bad first half," Pacers coach Rick Carlisle said. "Obviously, it was a big problem, and we just played poorly. A little bit better in the second half but you can't be a team that's reactive and expect to be successful or have consistency." At this stage, the Pacers cannot rely on their ability to complete a comeback. They need to start better, and now, it's on Carlisle and his staff to figure that out. Indiana trailed by as many as 23 points, and while the comebacks have been compelling, it's not a recipe for playoff success. "We're going to have to be a lot better on Wednesday," Carlisle said. The Pacers have led for just one minute and 40.3 seconds of the 96 minutes in two games and their biggest lead is three points. The Thunder were more physical, dominated the paint for the second consecutive game and limited Tyrese Haliburton to a quiet 17 points, 12 of which came in the fourth quarter when Oklahoma City had control of the game and was not in the mood to blow another double-digit lead. How did the Pacers handle Oklahoma City's physicality? "Not well," Carlisle said. "They were the best in the league during the year at keeping people out of there (paint). They are great at it. We have to find ways to get the ball in there, and you know, it's just there are so many things that have to go right on a set of two possessions to get the ball into the heart of their defense." Throughout the season and especially the playoffs, the Thunder's top-ranked defense finds a way to take away or limit the opponent's strengths. They did it against Denver and Minnesota in the Western conference semifinals and finals. "Our offense is built from the inside-out, and we have to do a better job getting downhill," Haliburton said. "They collapse and make plays from there. I thought we could improve a lot there. But yeah, they are flying around. They have got great point-of-attack defenders and great rim protectors. We can do a better job, watch the film, and see where we can get better going into Game 3." What about Haliburton's performance? "There's a lot more to the game than just scoring. ... People shouldn't just look at his points and assists and judge how he played, or judge how any of our guys played just on that," Carlisle said. "That's not how our team is built. We are an ecosystem that has to function together. We've got to score enough points to win the game but who gets them and how they get them, not important." Pascal Siakam found no consolation in getting a split and grabbing home-court advantage in the series. "You want to win every game you play, so we are not happy with how the game went today, and that's it," he said. "We've just got to turn the page, focus on Game 3. That's the biggest game of the year." This series is much closer to being a 2-0 Thunder lead than a 2-0 Pacers lead, and between Game 1 and 2, Carlisle compared a playoff series to a book. "Each game in this series is going to look different," he said. "A playoff series is a series of seven chapters, and each one takes on a different personality." If the Pacers don't find a way to start the next chapter better than they have, the book is going to close quickly on their championship aspirations. Follow NBA columnist Jeff Zillgitt on social media @JeffZillgitt
The Herald Scotland
3 hours ago
- The Herald Scotland
NBA Finals Game 2: Winners and losers from Thunder's win
Indiana, which has posted five comebacks this postseason of at least 15 points, could never seriously threaten Oklahoma City, which had five players score at least 15 points. NBA Most Valuable Player Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led all players with yet another 30-point showing, this one an efficient 34-point, eight-assist night on just 21 shot attempts. OPINION: Pacers cannot keep relying on crazy comebacks. They must start quicker, finish stronger. Pacers star Tyrese Haliburton did finish with 17 points, though he had scored just five through three quarters. Here are the winners and losers from Game 2 of the NBA Finals: WINNERS Alex Caruso and Aaron Wiggins It wasn't just his defense, Thunder backup guard Alex Caruso also poured in 20 points -- including four drained 3-pointers -- in just 27:04 of playing time. He was steady and aggressive on the offensive end, cutting into the lane when gaps opened up. Throw in fellow backup guard Aaron Wiggins, whose 18 points -- including 5-of-8 from 3 -- in just 20:32 also lifted the Thunder. That Caruso and Wiggins accounted for nearly 65% of Oklahoma City's 14 made 3-pointers, is a testament to the Thunder's depth. Chet Holmgren This was exactly the bounce-back game that the Thunder needed from center Chet Holmgren. Three nights after scoring just six points on 2-of-9 shooting, Holmgren got to work, though most of his production came early. Nine of his 15 points came in the first quarter. The Thunder go big After opting to play mostly small in Game 1, Oklahoma City leaned much more on its double-big lineup with its pair of centers, Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein, on the floor at the same time. The result was instant, with the Thunder dominating points in the paint in the first half, 26-12. "It takes discipline, but we try to really use these early games in the series to learn what are options are and what our tradeoffs are -- not assume anything," Thunder coach Mark Daigneault said after the game. "That was the intent tonight: just to get a little more information." LOSERS Tyrese Haliburton waits way too long Through the first three quarters, the most important player of the Pacers had scored just five points on just 2-of-7 shooting. Through the first three and a half minutes of the fourth, Haliburton had scored nine points, making all four of his attempts. While Haliburton's rep as a closer cannot be questioned, his inexplicably slow starts could become costly. The Thunder will clog the paint and gameplan to slow Haliburton's attacks into the paint. He needs to find ways to score regardless. Pacers coach Rick Carlisle downplayed Haliburton's sluggish production, saying that Indiana's team is an "ecosystem" and that it doesn't matter where points come from. "There's a lot more to the game than just scoring," he said after the game. "Everybody's got to do more." Regardless, Haliburton is the team's most gifted player and the one who can score easiest. The Pacers have no answer for OKC's intensity and physicality After the game, Pacers coach Rick Carlisle was asked his thoughts on how the Pacers responded to Oklahoma City's ramped up defensive intensity. Carlisle answer was curt and straightforward. "Not well," he said. The Thunder excel at crowding the paint when opposing players attack, collapsing, swarming and swatting at the ball. That is magnified particularly when Oklahoma City uses its double-big lineup with Holmgren and Hartenstein roaming down low. In the regular season, the Thunder ranked first in opponent points in the paint per game (42.5). Indiana's inability to attack the paint hurt its spacing and hurt its ability to get open looks from 3. "The paint is our emphasis and the paint is our friend. The more that we're able to attack the paint, usually better things happen for us," Carlisle said. Key players on Pacers bench no-show Obi Toppin scored 17 points in Game 1. Thomas Bryant had five. Both players combined Sunday night to score 4 on 1-of-9 shooting. Guards T.J. McConnell and Benedict Mathurin did combine for 25, but the Pacers will need much more balance from their contributions. The biggest stories, every morning. Stay up-to-date on all the key sports developments by subscribing to USA TODAY Sports' newsletter.
Reuters
10 hours ago
- Reuters
Pacers pine for hostile home crowd, Finals shift to Indy
June 9 - For the first time since 2000, the NBA Finals are headed to Indianapolis. The Pacers are even with the Oklahoma City Thunder at 1-all in the best-of-seven Finals as the series rolls into Indiana for Game 3 on Wednesday night. "We got one. Get to go home and play in front of our fans at Gainbridge," Pacers guard Aaron Nesmith said. "They've been waiting for this for 25 years, so it's exciting to go back and see what the atmosphere will be like." The Pacers swiped the opening game of the series and went into the second with a 7-0 record in Games 1 and 2 this postseason before the 123-107 loss that evened the Finals. While Oklahoma City squandered a 15-point lead in the fourth quarter in Game 1, the Thunder defense was relentless in Game 2. Indiana has only 38 points in the paint in two games, an area Pascal Siakam believes the Pacers must address to reclaim the series lead. "They swarm a lot. They do a good job of that. I mean, yeah, they use their hands a lot," Siakam said. "I mean, we are not going to get into fouls or no fouls but whatever. I think they are just being aggressive, and we've got to be stronger with the ball. We can't let that speed us up. We've still got to play under control ... that's what we've got to find a way to do." NBA MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 36 points in the Finals and had 34 points and eight assists for the Thunder in Game 2. Gilgeous-Alexander has 72 points in his first two Finals games, one better than the previous best ever two-game debut by Allen Iverson (71). "I'm being myself. I don't think I tried to reinvent the wheel or step up to the plate with a different mindset. Just try to attack the game the right way. I think I've done a pretty good job of that so far," he said. "Now, I would trade the points for two Ws, for sure. But this is where our feet are. This is where we are. You can't go back in the past, you can only make the future better. That's what I'm focused on." --Field Level Media
