logo
Could New England's 3.8 earthquake trigger aftershocks?

Could New England's 3.8 earthquake trigger aftershocks?

Boston Globe28-01-2025

Earthquake felt off the coast of Maine
Share
On Appledore Island near the epicenter of Monday's earthquake, the Shoals Marine Laboratory cameras show the vibrations felt from the 3.8 quake.
Experts say one or more aftershocks are not out of the realm of possibility.
Advertisement
John Ebel, a senior research scientist at Weston Observatory who studies seismic activity in New England, said that while Monday's event wasn't a large earthquake, there is a window for a few more jolts to surface. 'The larger the earthquake, the larger the window for aftershocks. For a magnitude 4.0, it's like two weeks; for a magnitude 7.0, it's a few years,' said Ebel, who has
Aftershocks are a sequence of earthquakes that occur near the epicenter of a quake or proximity to where the main 'rupture' in a fault line occurred, and are part of the readjustment process after the fault initially gives way, according to the United States Geological Survey.
Not only can aftershocks occur but the chances of one happening decreases over time from the initial rumble, according to experts.
In its 'aftershock forecast,' the USGS noted that chances are rather slim, about a 9 percent shot, that this York Harbor tremor will produce a magnitude 3 or higher aftershock that would be felt.
The USGS said: 'Typically, there are aftershocks with earthquakes, even in New England, but they'll likely stay at or slightly below the threshold for people to feel the shake, which is around 2.5 or 2.8 or less,' as measured on the Richter scale, which ranges from 1 to a magnitude of 10, a catastrophic quake.
Advertisement
Sophie Coulson, assistant professor in Earth Science at University of New Hampshire, said aftershocks are usually weaker than the initial event, so any aftershock resulting from this recent earthquake would be less than a 3.8 magnitude and rather indiscernible.
'Certainly, (aftershocks) could be happening over the next couple days, but these would likely be much smaller events that we wouldn't even necessarily feel,' Coulson said.
Geology professor Tasha Dunn at Colby College said the Northeast experiences earthquakes 'on a fairly regular basis that are really, really teeny tiny. So, it might honestly be difficult to distinguish aftershocks of this earthquake from other earthquakes that are, you know, just going on on a regular basis.'
During Monday's 3.8 quake, Coulson said her students saw projectors shaking and pictures on the walls moving slightly during Monday's event. In her lecture class of about 80 students, she said most felt the tremor.
Ebel believes that because of our limited seismic activity across New England, we are better able to keep track of aftershocks compared with our neighbors out west. 'Here that activity is so low, we probably can observe aftershocks for many years after moderate-size earthquakes,' he said.
Some experts believe the York Harbor quake most likely occurred in an area known as the Norumbega Fault Zone, a major 'strike-slip fault' area located in coastal Maine.
Ebel, however, suspects the earthquake's epicenter happened in a region more offshore that has been seismically active since the 1970s. 'If you go to Cape Ann, and you go to the east maybe 20 or 30 miles, and from there you go north toward York, Maine, over the last five decades or so, there have been a number of earthquakes detected in that zone.'
Advertisement
While there is not enough evidence to convince all seismologists that it is an active fault, Ebel said, 'my opinion is, actually it probably is.'
'There are three or four faults in the Newburyport area that are 400 million years old,' said Ebel. While scientists have no evidence that those faults are active, there are still a lot of mysteries when it comes to ancient faults.
'Figuring out how the modern earthquake relates to the old faults is a conundrum that we are trying to work out.'
Amanda Gokee can be reached at

Orange background

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Comments

No comments yet...

Related Articles

Trump cuts would scrap USGS biological research arm
Trump cuts would scrap USGS biological research arm

E&E News

timea day ago

  • E&E News

Trump cuts would scrap USGS biological research arm

The Trump administration wants to unplug a high-powered U.S. Geological Survey research program whose scientists have helped protect wildlife, manage forests, thwart pests and illuminate nature for over three decades. Eliminating the biological research branch of the USGS, as called for in President Donald Trump's fiscal 2026 budget proposal, would accelerate the administration's targeting of scientific experts and studies already shown in layoffs and grant cancellations at the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health. But the potential scrapping of the USGS program is also goading some scientists out of their labs and into lobbying, as they deploy letters, phone calls, professional advocates, social media messaging, virtual rallies and more in their bid to save a nearly $300 million-a-year program. Advertisement 'It seems largely political,' Shahid Naeem, a prominent Columbia University professor of ecology, said of the proposed USGS budget slashing in an interview. 'And from a scientific point of view, it's really going to cost the country billions of dollars if we eliminate these programs which keep watch on things like avian influenza, water quality and forest fires.' Ron Pulliam, an emeritus professor at the University of Georgia, added in an email that elimination of the program is a 'terrible idea based on the assumption that if you are unaware of bad news everything will be OK.' More than 30 years ago, Pulliam was the first head of the biological research program that's now called the USGS Ecosystem Mission Area. The Ecosystem Mission Area is one of five designated mission areas within USGS. It received about $293 million for fiscal 2025. Trump's proposal would drop it to zero in fiscal 2026. The program includes 16 research centers, from the Great Lakes Science Center in Ann Arbor, Michigan, to the Western Fisheries Research Center in Seattle. Scientists in Colorado, for instance, have examined how wildland fire risks and the potential benefits of forest thinning can best be communicated to at-risk communities. Elsewhere, researchers monitor bat populations threatened by wind turbines and fungal disease. Still other USGS scientists are working to fight quagga mussels, a particularly vexing invasive species. In Alaska, they count loon populations and measure high-altitude snow packs. They keep an eye on sediment tainting Chesapeake Bay and on the Everglades' altered water flows. The program helps fund, as well, cooperative research units like one at Oregon State University, where more than 30 scientists, graduate students and assistants study fish and wildlife. 'Losing the EMA means losing many critical partners and projects that promote evidence-based recommendations for conservation of natural resources,' said Selina Heppell, professor and head of the university's Department of Fisheries, Wildlife and Conservation Sciences, in an email. Bipartisan appeal Last year, then-USGS Director David Applegate promoted a proposed 10 percent budget increase for the Ecosystem Mission Area by citing its work on 'migration science for huntable big-game populations.' The choice to highlight hunting benefits before a House panel stocked with hunting-friendly GOP members could be interpreted as tactical, with Applegate citing 'the unique USGS expertise and technical capacity' that helps sustain economies in the West that rely on hunting and tourism, as well as those where people hunt for subsistence. Applegate is now back in a career position as USGS's chief scientist. The agency currently has an acting director while Trump's nominee — geologist Ned Mamula — awaits Senate confirmation. The Trump administration's proposed fiscal 2026 budget does not elaborate on the proposal to end the Ecosystem Mission Area's funding. The proposed budget reports that the USGS employed about 7,870 full-time workers in fiscal 2024. The proposed budget envisions total USGS employment falling to 5,153 in fiscal 2026. In a budget summary, the USGS cites its intention to eliminate 'grants to universities and other work that is duplicative of non-Federal research programs' and that 'supports social agendas [like] climate change research.' The agency cites plans to focus instead on 'higher priority energy and minerals activities' and to help 'streamline government.' In response to a request from POLITICO's E&E News for additional details about personnel numbers, future work and the rationale for eliminating the program, the Interior Department provided a statement. 'Interior proudly supports President Trump's 'One Big Beautiful Bill' — a historic, America First budget that delivers middle-class tax cuts, unleashes American energy, secures our borders, and invests in the infrastructure and security of our public lands,' the statement said. The genesis of the proposal is unclear, but the notion cropped up in the Heritage Foundation's Project 2025 policy playbook. The chapter on the Interior Department was authored by conservative attorney William Perry Pendley, who served as de facto acting director of the Bureau of Land Management in Trump's first term. 'Abolish the Biological Resources Division of the U.S. Geological Survey and obtain necessary scientific research about species of concern from universities via competitive requests for proposals,' the Project 2025 Interior Department chapter stated. The 'Biological Resources Division' was formerly the name of what has been called the Ecosystem Mission Area for the last 15 years. The Project 2025 playbook did not elaborate on the perceived benefits of ending the USGS ecosystem work. Reached by telephone Wednesday, Pendley said, 'I'm not going to discuss that right now. I appreciate the call.' Scientists lobby Supporters of the USGS research are trying to call attention to the proposed cuts. The National Wildlife Federation on May 22 convened a 'virtual rally' that drew about 2,000 participants to an hour-long program in support of the USGS Ecosystem Mission Area. Naeem, a former president of the 8,000-member Ecological Society of America, ventured onto Capitol Hill in May to discuss the proposal with Democratic congressional offices. 'We've been in constant communication with our members to be proactive,' Naeem said. 'If our people speak up all across the United States and talk to their senators and members of Congress, that's probably where we're going to have the most effect.' Upwards of 60 science-related organizations, from the American Geophysical Union to the Weed Science Society of America, signed an April 30 letter to Interior Secretary Doug Burgum and a May 9 letter to leaders of the House and Senate appropriations committees and both congressional natural resources committees. An umbrella group called the USGS Coalition, representing more than 85 academic, business and scientific organizations, has likewise weighed in with testimony presented in April to House appropriators. The director of one cooperative state-and-federal research center, granted anonymity because they had not been authorized to speak publicly about the issue, said, 'We are calling our representatives, signing letters and writing editorials for newspapers.' For the lawmakers, the proposed USGS budget cut is just one of many they will face. Asked on Thursday if he had any thoughts about the proposal, Republican Rep. Mike Simpson of Idaho, the chair of the House Interior and Environment Appropriations Subcommittee, said simply 'no.' A spokesperson for the conservative Pacific Legal Foundation likewise said the organization had no reaction at the proposal at the present time. The program's roots stretch back to 1993, when the Clinton administration merged Interior's scattered biological research work from seven bureaus into a new National Biological Service contained within the department. It was not always a smooth transition, facing both bureaucratic and political resistance. Conservative lawmakers, in particular, cited alleged threats to private property rights from what had initially been dubbed the National Biological Survey. 'There was a perception that it was a band of environmental activists who would seek to find endangered species on private property, and I would say, in some instances, that probably happened,' then-Rep. Wayne Gilchrest, a moderate Maryland Republican, said in 1995. In 1996, the National Biological Service was again renamed and transferred into the USGS. In 2010, as part of a larger USGS reorganization. Most of this work was folded into the newly established Ecosystem Mission Area. Other USGS mission areas, such as Natural Hazards and Water Resources, would get less money but still survive under Trump's proposed fiscal 2026 budget. Reporter Garrett Downs also contributed.

California is overdue for a devastating earthquake. Here are some tips if it hits
California is overdue for a devastating earthquake. Here are some tips if it hits

Yahoo

time3 days ago

  • Yahoo

California is overdue for a devastating earthquake. Here are some tips if it hits

It's the unavoidable series of questions Christine Goulet gets every time she's asked what she does for a living. "When is the next big earthquake coming? Do you know where? When should we get ready?" Goulet, director of the U.S. Geological Survey's Earthquake Science Center in Los Angeles, told USA TODAY. "It's almost without fail once they know I study earthquakes. If I received a dollar every time I'm asked, I'd be rich." Goulet has answers, but she can't predict the future. The ominous truth: The Big One could happen any time, and there's more than one possible "Big One." "It's gonna happen. An earthquake could be in a matter of minutes, the next hour, tomorrow, or in a week from now, we can't predict that precisely at this time. We don't know," Goulet said. "But the point in general is we want and need to prepare for them." California quakes': Tsunami warnings canceled after powerful earthquake in Northern California The most authoritative research on the risk to California was conducted in 2015, but little has changed in the past decade. The state will almost certainly face a magnitude 6.7 or larger earthquake within the next three decades, the USGS concludes. Some of the most at-risk locations are San Francisco and Los Angeles. California's continuous temblor risk coincides with a huge earthquake brewing along the Cascadia Subduction Zone off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. With nearly four dozen faults in the region stretching from Napa to Monterey, the San Francisco Bay Area has a 72% chance of a major quake registering 6.7 magnitude or higher by 2043, USGS researchers previously estimated. The findings also indicate that the Bay Area has a 51% chance of experiencing an earthquake with a magnitude of 7 and a 20% chance of measuring a magnitude of 7.5 or higher within that time frame. "The earthquake threat is very real," said Richard Allen, a professor at the University of California, Berkeley and the director of the Berkeley Seismology Lab. "It is a real challenge as we have to take that long-term view, but also not to live our lives in fear." In December, thousands in the Bay Area and across Northern California were worried after a magnitude 7 earthquake struck along a sparsely populated northern coast of California, triggering a tsunami warning across a swath of the West Coast stretching from southern Oregon to San Francisco. Traci Grant, 53, a public relations specialist who felt the quake in San Francisco, told USA TODAY at the time she felt her retrofitted apartment move in slow motion. "It just kept going and going," Grant said. "It was scary and a bit exciting at the same time. It was more of a roll than just shake, shake, shake." California quakes: Don't wait for the big one. This is what to do before, during and after an earthquake Less than two hours after the initial quake, some areas experienced 13 different aftershocks, ranging from 5.1 to 3.1, the USGS reported. Two hours after that, at least 39 aftershocks of at least a 2.5 magnitude occured in the region, authorities said. No earthquake-related injuries or major damages were reported. Goulet said if the quake had been directly on land, "the impact would've been more devastating." Goulet said December's quake magnitude conjured up the Great San Francisco Earthquake and Fire of 1906. It was a nearly minute-long 7.9 magnitude quake followed by a fire that burned for three days, destroying thousands of buildings. The San Francisco quake killed an estimated 3,000 people and destroyed roughly 80% of the city. It is known as one of the deadliest in U.S. history. Allen also noted the 1868 Hayward Fault earthquake that struck the heart of the Bay Area and killed 30 people. With all the Bay Area faults, Allen said his research shows there's a "two-in-three chance" the Big One could be soon. "We're overdue for a recurrence," Allen said. The last major earthquake in the Bay Area occurred more than a decade ago, when an earthquake rattled Napa Valley in 2014. The 6.0 magnitude quake in Wine Country killed one person and injured 300 people. The incident caused more than $1 billion in damage across Napa and neighboring cities, including Vallejo, California, which took years to rebuild. Then there was the Loma Prieta earthquake that rocked the San Francisco Bay Area in 1989, killing 63 people and injuring nearly 3,800 others. The earthquake disrupted the World Series and damaged the Bay Bridge, Oakland's Cypress Freeway, and swaths of San Francisco. It caused up to $10 billion in damage. "There's this perception that large quakes are frequent, but actually, they are quite rare," Goulet said. "We just don't know when they will happen." The Los Angeles area also stands a chance of getting a major earthquake, as there's a 60% chance of a 6.7 magnitude quake within the next 30 years, the USGS said. Additionally, there is also a 46% probability that a 7.0 magnitude earthquake will hit L.A. and a 31% chance a 7.5 magnitude quake will strike during that same period. Allen, the Berkeley seismologist, said Southern California has just as high an earthquake risk compared to its Northern California counterparts. "They face a similar threat, if not higher," Allen said. Goulet added that with Los Angeles and the surrounding areas being so populous (nearly 18.6 million residents according to California Finance Department statistics), there is a high probability for major destruction. She cites the disastrous 6.7 earthquake in Northridge, California, in 1994, which killed 60 people and injured more than 7,000. The devastation also left thousands of buildings and structures collapsed or damaged across Los Angeles, Ventura, Orange and San Bernardino counties. Thousands of residents became homeless as the aftermath caused between $13 billion to $20 billion in damages. "The closer an earthquake is to a large population, the greater the impact will be," Goulet said. Goulet also points to a sequence of earthquakes in 2019 in Ridgecrest, California. A 7.1 magnitude earthquake rattled the city two days after an initial 6.4 magnitude quake. Goulet was among a USGS on-site team researching the first quake when, surprisingly, the second temblor struck. "It was terrifying," Goulet said. "We were there taking measurements and just as we were finishing our work and planning for the next day, the second one occurred about six miles away from us. That was extremely close." Goulet said she remembers reassuring panicked residents that everything would be okay. "That's why we cannot specifically predict earthquakes, when and where they will occur and how big they will be," Goulet added. "But what we can do is collect all of the research that causes earthquakes and the probabilities, which are called probabilistic seismic hazard analysis." There's an App for that: Shake, rattle and scroll: California gets new earthquake alert app Huge earthquakes have long been an existential crisis for millions along the West Coast, as described in a 2022 USA TODAY article. But experts said there are real things people can do to help them prepare for a major disaster. If you experience an earthquake, Sarah Minson, a research geophysicist with the USGS's Earthquake Science Center in Mountain View, California, advises not to run. "If you feel shaking, you should drop, cover and hold on to protect yourself," Minson said. "Don't go anywhere. Don't run outside. A huge number of the injuries that occur in earthquakes are people stepping on broken glass or trying to run during the shaking and falling down." Allen, the Berkeley seismologist, recommends that households create an earthquake plan, including where they will meet and possibly have a bag or suitcase ready for at least a couple of days. Residents will at least want a flashlight and a way to charge their phone. They should also be prepared to have access to electricity or water cut off for days or weeks. Here are a few practical tips: When trying to use your phone, text – don't call. In a disaster, text messages are more reliable and strain cell networks less. To power your phone, you can cheaply buy a combination weather radio, flashlight and hand-crank charger to keep your cell running even without power for days. A cash reserve is good to have, USGS seismologist Lucy Jones previously said. You'll want to be able to buy things, even if your credit card doesn't work for a time. Simple things like securing bookshelves can save lives. Downloading an early warning app can give you precious moments to protect yourself in the event of a big quake. Buying earthquake insurance can protect homeowners. And taking part in a yearly drill can help remind you about other easy steps you can take to prepare. It depends on where you are at. Here's what to do in the following situations, according to Turn face down and cover your head and neck with a pillow if you're in bed. If you are outside, stay outdoors and away from buildings. If you are inside, stay. Avoid doorways and do not run outside. To protect yourself during an earthquake, drop down to your hands and knees and hold onto something sturdy. Cover your head and neck with your arms and crawl underneath a sturdy table or desk to shelter. If that's not available to you, then crawl next to an interior wall to get away from windows. If you are under a table or desk, hold onto it with one hand so that if it moves, you can move with it. More: How to prepare for 'the big one' in Coachella Valley Slow down and pull over as soon as it's safe, according to the California Highway Patrol. Remain in the vehicle with your seat belt fastened, engine off, and parking brake set. Once the shaking stops, check your vehicle for damage and its occupants for injuries. Only begin driving when it is safe to do so. Once you can start moving again, do so slowly and cautiously, avoiding any areas of the road that appear to be damaged or obstructed, and continue to avoid bridges and ramps. ​​California's largest recorded earthquakes since 1800, ranked by magnitude, according to the California Department of Conservation. 7.9: Jan. 9, 1857 in Fort Tejon Two killed; created 220-mile surface scar 7.8: April 18, 1906 in San Francisco Possibly 3,000 killed; 225,000 displaced 7.4: March 26, 1872 in Owens Valley. 27 kille​d; three aftershocks of magnitude >6 7.4: Nov. 8, 1980 just west of Eureka Injured 6; $2 million in damage 7.3: July 21, 1952 in Kern County 12 killed; included three magnitude 6-plus aftershocks in five days 7.3: June 28, 1992 in Landers. One killed; 400 injured; $9.1 million in damage 7.2: Jan. 22, 1923 in Mendocino. Damaged homes in several towns 7.2: April 25, 1992 in Cape Mendocino. 356 injuries; $48.3 million in damage 7.1: Nov. 4, 1927 southwest of Lompoc. No major injuries, slight damage in two counties 7.1 : Oct. 16, 1999 in Ludlow. Minimal damage due to remote location​ The most recent significant earthquake in the state — either a magnitude of 6.5 or greater or that caused loss of life or more than $200,000 damage — was the 6.4-magnitude earthquake that occurred in the Pacific Ocean near Ferndale in 2022, according to the state department of conservation, which tracks 'big' earthquakes in California. That earthquake struck in the early morning hours multiple miles west of Ferndale on Dec. 20, 2022, USA TODAY reported. It indirectly caused two deaths and damaged homes and roads in Humboldt County. You can track earthquakes recorded within the last 30 days in America and internationally through USGS' latest earthquakes map, though USGS cautions it should not be considered a complete list of earthquakes. California Connect reporter Paris Barraza contributed to this report. This article originally appeared on Palm Springs Desert Sun: Is California 'overdue' for a major earthquake? Earthquake safety tips

DOWNLOAD THE APP

Get Started Now: Download the App

Ready to dive into the world of global news and events? Download our app today from your preferred app store and start exploring.
app-storeplay-store