Unlikely To See Another Delta-Like Covid Wave Ever, No Need To Panic Over Fresh Surge: Ex-CSIR Chief
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Dr Shekhar Mande said hospitalisations and severe symptoms are very unlikely at this stage as the population has developed immunity to the virus
It's unlikely that the world will ever see Covid-19 raging and causing deaths like it did before, prominent biologist Dr Shekhar Mande has told News18.
After a period of relative calm, Covid-19 infections are once again surging in several Asian regions, including Hong Kong and Singapore, raising alarms about a resurgence of the virus. However, so far, India has remained largely unaffected, with the Union Health Ministry maintaining that the situation is under control.
According to Singapore's health ministry, the recent surge in Covid-19 cases in the country has been caused by the LF.7 and NB.1.8 variants—sub lineages of the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2. Specifically, they are descendants of the JN.1 variant, which itself is a sub lineage of Omicron BA.2.86.
'Omicron was not a deadly strain, and India has already experienced a wave caused by it. There is no need to worry on the medical front. A large part of the population is already double vaccinated," Mande, who is former secretary, Department of Scientific and Industrial Research (DSIR), Ministry of Science and Technology, said.
'Many people have also been exposed to variants that can escape vaccine protection, yet they have recovered. In my opinion, there is no reason to panic," he said, adding, 'it's highly unlikely that these strains will cause any kind of damage similar to what we have seen during the Delta wave."
During the Omicron wave, Mande recalled that India did not see a surge in hospitalisations. 'We don't expect one now with the new strains either. Certain mutations have occurred in JN.1, but it's still unclear whether they have increased its infectivity. So far, its spread has not resulted in a rise in hospitalisations or deaths. Hence, based on the latest observations, there's no reason to panic."
Mande, who is also a former Director General of Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), believes that India should ramp up its genomic sequencing of viruses in circulation. 'There is a strong case for active surveillance of new variants. Even the WHO would want to know if a Variant of Concern (VOC) is emerging."
Generally, the sequencing is done from random samples taken from Covid-19 positive patients admitted to hospitals.
Current status of Covid-19
According to government data, India had 257 active Covid-19 cases nationwide as of May 19. Kerala leads with 69 cases, followed by Maharashtra (44) and Tamil Nadu (34). Other states, including Karnataka, Gujarat, Delhi, Haryana, Rajasthan, and Sikkim, have also reported fresh infections.
However, according to Mande, the states reporting higher number of cases does not necessarily mean that they have more cases. 'It just shows that their surveillance mechanisms are well-oiled."
'Kerala has always had strong surveillance. Even during the Delta wave, it was among the first to report cases."
However, he said, many cases across the country go unreported. 'People often don't come forward for testing, as symptoms tend to subside within a few days. Because of this, the average person may not consider testing necessary."
When asked if people should go for Covid-19 testing once again, he replied, 'if desirable. Get tested if needed but testing decisions should ideally be made with a doctor's guidance."
Not much evidence on booster shots
'Regardless of the vaccine type—Moderna, Pfizer, inactivated vaccines like Covaxin, or adenovirus-based Covishield vaccine—we currently do not have sufficient data on whether boosters are helpful, or whether immunity has waned to the point that boosters are needed," he said.
'While some attempts have been made to gather this data, there is no conclusive evidence yet. So, the final word on boosters is still pending."
On being asked if humans are at risk of acquiring Covid-19 infections once again due to weakening immunity, Mande explained that 'currently, it is not well-characterised whether our cell-based (T-cell) immunity has declined significantly or not". 'A significant decline in immunity is unlikely. T-cell immunity doesn't wane that quickly."
Can Covid-19 become lethal, once again?
Most likely, no.
In 2020, when we first encountered this virus, Mande said, 'our bodies had no prior exposure and reacted strongly, leading to complications. Now, after being exposed to multiple variants, our population has developed a better immune response. It's highly unlikely that our bodies would now hyper-react".
As a result, he said, 'hospitalisations and severe symptoms are very unlikely at this stage."
He further added 'In general, with most viruses, the first infection tends to be more severe. Over time, infections usually become milder. This pattern has been seen with influenza as well."
However, new strains can always emerge. 'For example, SARS-CoV-1 was mostly seen in eastern countries and didn't affect India much. With SARS-CoV-2, we might continue to see mutations and periodic outbreaks of milder variants — similar to how new flu strains appear during the rainy season."
'But it's unlikely that they will cause the kind of damage we saw during the Delta or first wave."
What should public do?
'What we have learned from science is that this virus is airborne," he said, explaining that as we speak or cough, we release aerosols—tiny particles, 5 to 10 microns in size—that can trap the virus and float in the air. 'Others can inhale them and get infected."
People with symptoms should avoid mingling with others to prevent spreading the virus. Also, ventilation plays a very important role.
'In densely populated areas, if everyone wears a mask, it can significantly reduce the chances of transmission during inhaling and exhaling."
Hence, he advices to 'wear masks, especially in crowded areas. Also avoid gatherings, if symptomatic and stay home if sick, to avoid infecting others."
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coronavirus Council of Scientific and Industrial Research covid-19 delta variant news18 specials omicron
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First Published:
May 22, 2025, 10:19 IST
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