OECD lowers global growth outlook in 2025 and 2026 as trade tensions rise
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has revised its global economic growth forecast downward to 2.9% for the years 2025 and 2026. This adjustment comes amidst escalating trade tensions primarily driven by US President Donald Trump's tariff policies.The OECD highlighted that "substantial increases" in trade barriers and policy uncertainty are creating a challenging global outlook that could have "marked adverse effects on growth." The revised forecasts are a reduction from the previous estimates of 3.1% for 2025 and 3.0% for 2026.advertisementUS GROWTH ALSO TAKES A HITThe United States is expected to experience a significant impact from these policies. The OECD's revised projection for US economic growth in 2025 is now 1.6%, down from an earlier forecast of 2.2%, with further deceleration anticipated in 2026 to 1.5%.
This drop comes despite President Trump's claims that tariffs are boosting the American economy. Just before the report was released, Trump posted on his Truth Social account: 'Because of Tariffs, our Economy is BOOMING!'The effective tariff rate on US merchandise imports has soared to 15.4%, the highest level since 1938, which "will dent household consumption and business investment growth."GLOBAL IMPACT AND INFLATION WORRIESGlobally, the effects of these trade policies have been widespread. China, facing triple-digit US tariffs, has seen its growth forecast slightly reduced from 4.8% to 4.7% in 2025. Japan's growth outlook has also been downgraded from 1.1% to 0.7%.advertisementWhile the eurozone's growth forecast remains steady at 1%, the OECD warns that "weakened economic prospects will be felt around the world, with almost no exception," and that "lower growth and less trade will hit incomes and slow job growth."Inflation is another concern, particularly in the United States, where it is expected to rise to just under 4% by the end of 2025, double the Federal Reserve's target rate. This inflationary pressure is attributed to "high economic policy uncertainty, a significant slowdown in net immigration, and a sizeable reduction in the federal workforce," as noted in the OECD report.Alvaro Pereira, OECD chief economist, stressed the importance of avoiding further fragmentation in trade and urged countries to "sit down and get an agreement" to mitigate these risks.The OECD's report underscores the risks associated with continued protectionism and trade policy uncertainty. It concluded by warning that if more tariffs are introduced, the situation could get worse. Extra trade barriers could reduce global growth further and lead to even higher inflation.Must Watch
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Time of India
39 minutes ago
- Time of India
Jeffrey Epstein's real estate empire: Who owns them now?
It's time to put a lid on the conspiracy theories. It's been over five years since rumors have been circulating about the nature of Jeffrey Epstein's death. However, on Wednesday, the FBI (Federal Bureau of Investigation) Deputy Director Dan Bongino revealed that there is nothing in the Jeffrey Epstein file indicating he died by any other way than suicide. Bongino updated Fox News on the investigation into the Epstein file, as conspiracies continue to float that he was murdered in prison, and said, "The evidence we have in our files clearly indicates that it was, in fact, a suicide. We do have video. It's not the greatest video in the world. I don't want to set expectations on fire." Bongino added, "However, the video does show in that specific block, that he goes in, made a phone call; you'll see 12 hours of guards going in basically check on him, come back. You'll see nobody really comes out of that bay in that area than him. There's no one in there. There's nothing there in the file at all that indicates anything other than in fact a suicide." The infamous American financier died in 2019 while awaiting trial on sex trafficking charges. But what happened to the heap of wealth he amassed? Read on to find out. Jeffrey Epstein had amassed a significant real estate portfolio over the decades. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Tecno Pova Curve 5G - India's Slimmest 5,500mAh Curve TECNO Mobile Buy Now Undo From private islands to the landmark townhouse on Manhattan – the list of his possessions and property is quite long. Following his death, these properties became central to legal battles, settlements, and public scrutiny. While some properties have been sold and proceeds allocated to settlements, others remain in limbo, awaiting resolution. Here's an overview of his key properties and their current ownership. Take a look. Little Saint James & Great Saint James, US Virgin Islands: Epstein's most infamous holdings were his two private islands in the US Virgin Islands. Little Saint James, often referred to as 'Pedophile Island', was where many of the alleged abuses occurred. Great Saint James, purchased in 2016, remained largely undeveloped. Current ownership: In May 2023, private equity mogul Stephen Deckoff, through his firm SD Investments, acquired both islands for $60 million, significantly below the initial $125 million listing price. Settlement details: As part of a settlement with the US Virgin Islands, half of the proceeds from the sale of Little Saint James were allocated to the territory. Additionally, Epstein's estate agreed to pay $450,000 to address environmental damages on Great Saint James. Manhattan townhouse, New York City: Located on East 71st Street, Epstein's seven-story mansion became one of the most popular landmarks in the city and was valued at $77 million in 2019. The property was raided by federal authorities in July 2019 as part of their investigation into Epstein's activities. Current ownership: In March 2021, former Goldman Sachs executive Michael Daffey purchased the townhouse for $51 million. The proceeds from the sale were directed to the Epstein Victims' Compensation Program. Palm Beach estate, Florida: Epstein acquired his Palm Beach estate in 1990. The property was estimated to be worth over $12 million in 2019. In December 2021, a venture capitalist purchased the vacant lot for $25.845 million, with plans to demolish the existing house. Zorro ranch, New Mexico: Situated near Stanley, New Mexico, Zorro Ranch spanned approximately 10,000 acres and included various structures, such as a main residence, guest houses, and an airstrip. The ranch gained notoriety due to its association with Epstein's activities. Current ownership: In August 2023, Zorro Ranch was sold to San Rafael Ranch LLC for an undisclosed sum. The buyer's identity and future plans for the property remain unclear. Other properties: Epstein also owned an apartment in Paris on the famous Avenue Foch, though details about its current status are limited. Additionally, he held a private jet, which was auctioned off in 2020. Estate management and legal proceedings: Following Epstein's death, his estate faced numerous legal challenges and settlements. In January 2025, the estate received a substantial tax refund, increasing its value to $145 million. However, activists and some victims' advocates argued that funds should be directed towards compensating survivors rather than benefiting individuals associated with Epstein. Epstein Accuser Virginia Giuffre Cremated QUIETLY After Tragic Demise; Private Burial Details Emerge
Economic Times
40 minutes ago
- Economic Times
Why RBI will hit a hattrick of 25 bps rate cut tomorrow
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This assumes greater significance for energy, infrastructure, and manufacturing, which are sensitive to international trade dynamics and supply chain disruptions. The Court of International Trade struck down President Donald Trump's sweeping ' Liberation Day ' tariffs, ruling that he lacked the 'unbounded authority' to impose across-the-board import taxes on the entire world under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. These concerns have been exacerbated by President Donald Trump's 1000-page ' Big, Beautiful Bill .' While the Bill is ' big ,' there have been concerns about its ' beautiful ' nature due to a hike in the USA's already bloated and unsustainable deficit resulting from extended tax cuts and an aggravated skew in the distribution of income and wealth. The US grew by 2.8 % in 2024. But, in January-March 2025, growth turned -0.2 % due to policy uncertainties and geopolitical risks. The Fed is wary of cutting rates, despite declining growth prospects. 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However, private consumption growth slowed, and government final consumption expenditure shrank in Q4 of FY25 after two quarters. ' Improving domestic consumption is likely to support industrial activity... domestic consumption demand to improve, driven by healthy agricultural growth, easing inflation, supporting discretionary spend and income tax relief this fiscal '. But this growth will require continued recovery in domestic demand and support from both monetary and fiscal stimulus. The real GDP growth reflects the economy's underlying strength and resilience, driven by robust domestic demand, sustained government capex, and gradual recovery in private investment. Industrial production rose modestly to an eight-month low of 2.7% in April 2025 (5.2% in April 2024), and a 4% rise in industrial output in FY 25, which was the lowest in four years. While manufacturing (3.4%) and electricity (1.1%) grew, mining shrank (0.2%) in April, the first since August 2024. Persisting contraction in consumer non-durables' output for the third successive month manifested in low rural consumption despite CPI inflation reaching an almost 6-year low at 3.16% in April. India's foodgrain production rose 6.6 % to reach 354 million tonne (MT) in FY 25, including record production of all major crops, rice, paddy, maize, wheat, etc. India's economic trajectory remains resilient despite global headwinds and regional geopolitical tensions, including persistent border concerns with Pakistan, because of a ' pickup in private consumption, healthy balance sheets of banks and corporates, easing financial conditions, and the government's continued thrust on capital expenditure '. India will continue to be the fastest-growing major economy in the world and consolidate its economic size and heft in the comity of nations. While external uncertainties, such as supply chain disruptions and energy market volatility, pose challenges, India continues to benefit from demographic dividend, ascendant middle class, huge markets with rising consumption demand, strong service sector performance, an accent on infrastructure and capex, a stable banking system, and improving manufacturing output under schemes like PLI. External sector risks, tariff disputes, ease of doing business, credit delivery to the target group, tax reforms, and expenditure rationalization, however, cause some concern. Credit growth is expected to remain robust, driven by economic growth, consumption, and investment. Bank credit moderated to 11.2 % as on April 18, 2025, compared to 15.3 % in the previous year. Domestic bond yields fell to multi-year lows because of successive rate cuts and liquidity-boosting measures by the RBI. Both credit and monetary conditions are in sync with the RBI's plan to support the economy while containing remains volatile because of advance tax and GST outflows and government cash balances with the RBI. Liquidity remained in surplus as reflected in average daily net absorption under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF), increasing to ₹1,605 crore during FY 25 from ₹485 crore in FY 24. The RBI conducted market operations, including open market operations (OMO) purchases, USD/INR buy/sell swaps, and longer tenor variable rate repo (VRR) operations, besides reducing the CRR by 50 bps (in two tranches of 25 bps each), to provide durable liquidity to the system. The RBI transferred ₹2.69 lakh crore surplus to the government. Inflation remained within the target in FY 25, aided by easing vegetable prices. Headline inflation moderated to 4.6 % during FY 25 from 5.4 % in the previous year, largely driven by moderating core (CPI excluding food and fuel) inflation to 3.5 % and deflation in fuel at 2.5 %. However, the rise in core inflation in the second half of the year occurred because of surging global gold prices. Other tailwinds are above normal monsoon, early arrival of the southwest monsoon, elevated reservoir level, favourable rainfall outlook, and softening food inflation. Crude prices are expected to remain volatile because of global demand, supply disruptions, and geopolitical inflation softened to 3.2 % in April, the lowest since July 2019, from 3.3 % in March because of a sustained fall in food prices. CPI inflation is expected to remain range-bound, driven by factors such as food prices, fuel prices, and economic growth. 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The RBI is likely to revise its projections on real GDP and inflation for RBI has already cut the Repo Rate twice in 2025- in February and in April, by 25 bps each. These cuts reduced the key lending rate to 6%. Further, the RBI also changed its stance from 'neutral' to 'accommodative' in April. Accordingly, most banks reduced their repo-linked lending rates. Lenders also lowered their marginal cost of funds-based lending rate (MCLR), with a beneficial impact on interest-rate sensitive segments, viz., real estate, small businesses, and home loans.A further 25-bps cut in the Repo Rate will drive economic traction, promote borrowing, investment, and growth, and enhance job creation by making it cheaper for people to borrow money. A 25-bps reduction in the Repo Rate will cause a corresponding drop in all external benchmark lending rates (EBLR), with equated monthly installments (EMIs) on home and personal loans decreasing by 25 bps. A boost in real estate will have a multiplier effect on the economy, particularly in sectors like cement, steel, and construction would be the third consecutive reduction in the Repo rate since February 2025. Since inflation is within the RBI's target band, and given the likely growth-inflation dynamics, we expect another reduction of 50 bps in FY26. The MPC is likely to retain the 'accommodative' monetary policy stance adopted in April 2025. (The author is Chief Economist, Infomerics Valuation and Ratings) (Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
The Hindu
41 minutes ago
- The Hindu
Russian strike kills 5, including 1 year old, hours after Trump calls Putin
At least five people, including a one-year-old child, were killed in a Russian drone strike on the northern Ukrainian city of Pryluky overnight, regional governor Viacheslav Chaus said Thursday. The attack came just hours after Donald Trump spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin. According to Mr. Trump, Mr. Putin 'very strongly' said that Russia will retaliate for Ukraine's weekend drone attacks on Russian military airfields. Six more people were wounded in the attack and have been hospitalized, Chaus said. According to him, six Shahed-type drones struck residential areas of Pryluky early Thursday morning, causing severe damage to residential buildings. Hours later, seventeen people were wounded in a Russian drone strike on the eastern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv early Thursday, including children, a pregnant woman, and a 93-year-old woman, regional head Oleh Syniehubov wrote on Telegram. At around 1:05 a.m., Shahed-type drones struck two apartment buildings in the city's Slobidskyi district, causing fires and destroying several private vehicles. 'By launching attacks while people sleep in their homes, the enemy once again confirms its tactic of insidious terror,' Syniehubov wrote on Telegram.
