Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire: Jac Caglianone, Shane Bieber & Thairo Estrada

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5 days ago

FANTASY BASEBALL WAIVER WIRE PICKUPS
Jac Caglianone (1B Royals): Rostered in 20% of Yahoo leagues
Let's wish this into existence.
The hope was that the Royals were calling up Caglianone when they dropped Cavan Biggio from the roster on Sunday, but they chose John Rave instead. Three days earlier, they cut Hunter Renfroe but replaced him with an infielder in Nick Loftin. Whether it's offense or, more likely, defense, the Royals don't think Caglianone is quite ready, at least not as an outfielder. He has to be close, though.
Caglianone was the sixth overall pick in last year's draft after a stellar run at the University of Florida. While he was also a legitimate prospect as a pitcher, there was no doubt he was being drafted for his bat, which produced 68 homers in 137 games in his final two years in school. He opened this year in Double-A and hit .322/.394/.553 in 38 games. The Royals just recently promoted him to Triple-A Omaha, where he's opened up 12-for-37 with five homers. Overall, he's hit .323/.389/.593 with 14 homers in 216 plate appearances.
Never having played anywhere other than first until this year, Caglianone remains a novice in the outfield, He's started two games in left and 10 in right, where his excellent arm should help make up for his lack of range. Obviously, he still needs more work out there. He needs it almost as much as the Royals need his bat in the middle of their lineup.
Caglianone should be a future 30-homer guy for the Royals, even while playing half of his games in arguably MLB's toughest home run park for lefties. Kauffman is actually a fine hitter's park on the whole, but because homers are the biggest part of his game, it will probably take away from Caglianone's numbers some. Still, Caglianone isn't a big strikeout guy for as hard as he swings; he's fanned just 20.4 percent of the time this season. He should be worth using in mixed leagues as soon as he's promoted.
Shane Bieber (SP Guardians): Rostered in 29% of Yahoo leagues
Making his way back from last April's Tommy John surgery, Bieber is set for his first of several rehab starts Saturday. He probably won't make his return to the Guardians rotation until the end of June, but it'll likely be too late by then to add him in mixed leagues.
Of course, we don't know exactly which Bieber we'll be seeing this year. The 2023 version was a far cry from the AL Cy Young Award winner of 2020, as his strikeout rate dropped significantly for a third straight year and he wound up with a 3.80 ERA. It looked like a turnaround was in store last year, as he followed up an impressive spring by pitching 12 scoreless innings with 20 strikeouts in his first two starts. But that's when his elbow gave out.
That Bieber worked hard to reclaim some of his lost velocity probably played a role in last year's injury. It's certainly too much to expect him to come out firing now like he did last spring, though anything is possible. If he's in 2023 form, that's still a useful pitcher, too. Pitching in Cleveland helps limit his homer totals, and he's always done well in terms of WHIP. There are no guarantees with a pitcher returning from surgery, but Bieber's a good enough bet to be worth the roster/IL spot a month ahead of his debut.
Thairo Estrada (2B Rockies): Rostered in 6% of Yahoo leagues
Signed over the winter to replace Brendan Rodgers at second base in Colorado, Estrada is finally ready to make his Rockies debut 10 weeks after a Kumar Rocker pitch left him with a broken wrist. That he'll play regularly isn't in doubt. How much running he'll do will be the determining factor in whether he proves useful in mixed leagues.
Never much of a basestealer in the minors, Estrada surprised everyone by swiping 21 bases in 27 tries while emerging as a useful fantasy infielder with the Giants in 2022., He followed that up with an even better 2023 in which he was 23-for-30 stealing bases, even though he missed nearly a quarter of the season. Last year, though, everything came crashing down for Estrada. He hit just .217/.247/.343 and was 2-for-4 stealing bases in 96 games before finishing the year in the minors.
The two reasons for optimism now is that Estrada's exit velocity numbers last year were basically the same as the previous two seasons, and he's gone from a tough park for hitters to the best in baseball in Coors Field. He's still probably not going to make more than modest contributions in the non-SB categories, but if he gets back to doing some running -- and there's really no reason for him not to on a team as bad as the Rockies are -- he'll probably be helpful as an MI in 12-team leagues.
Waiver Wire Quick Hits
- Camilo Doval remains available in 46% of Yahoo leagues after being returned to the closer's role by the Giants this week. He's probably going to be a top-20 and maybe a top-10 RP the rest of the way.
- Gavin Lux probably isn't a long-term guy in mixed leagues, but the Reds have six home games next week, with at least five of those coming against righties, and Lux is hitting in the cleanup spot with Austin Hays on the IL. As a one-week option, he makes plenty of sense.