Israel-Iran conflict: If Donald Trump backs out of launching strike, will Israel use nukes to destroy Iran's Fordow facility?
To achieve its stated objective of dismantling Iran's nuclear programme, Israel must neutralise the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, a critical and highly fortified Iranian nuclear facility.
But Israel's own arsenal lacks the conventional ordnance capable of destroying Fordow.
Despite recent Israeli airstrikes targeting Fordow, the facility remains operational and undamaged due to its underground location and robust defenses, including surface-to-air missile systems deployed by Iran and Russia.
Israel-Iran conflict
Instead, the destruction of the facility will require multiple strikes using the US GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP), a 30,000-pound bunker-buster bomb delivered by US B-2 stealth bombers.
A report by The Guardian claimed that the US military has reservations regarding the success of using a bunker-buster bomb. Two defense officials were reportedly briefed that only a tactical nuclear weapon could reach the facility.
What if US backs out?
President Donald Trump has been briefed extensively on the risks and benefits of attacking Fordow, recognising that disabling this facility is essential to prevent Iran from producing nuclear weapons in a short timeframe.
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However, he has not made a final decision on whether to join Israel's ongoing air campaign against Iran's nuclear sites, opting instead to wait up to two weeks to see if diplomatic negotiations with Tehran might succeed in halting Iran's nuclear program.
But if in two weeks, Trump decides to back out from launching a strike, Israel may have only one way of destroying the facility -- going nuclear.
Will Israel go it alone?
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made it clear that Israel will not wait for US approval or a "green light" to continue its campaign against Iran's nuclear facilities.
In a rare Hebrew-language interview, Netanyahu declared that Israel is fully committed to hitting all Iranian nuclear sites, including Fordow, and asserted that Israel has the capability to do so independently.
If President Trump ultimately decides not to join Israel in military strikes against Iran within the next two weeks, it is plausible that Tel Aviv might escalate its tactics
Are nukes on the table?
The possibility that Israel might resort to using a low-yield nuclear weapon to destroy the Fordow facility has been a topic of speculation, given the difficulty of striking such a deeply buried site with conventional weapons.
While Netanyahu has not explicitly confirmed the use of nuclear weapons, his statements about Israel's capability to destroy all nuclear sites suggest a readiness to deploy advanced and potentially extreme measures if necessary.
Heather Williams, director of the Project on Nuclear Issues and a senior fellow in the Defense and Security Department at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, has said that while Israel might not have the conventional ordnance to destroy Fordow, it is believed to have the nuclear capability to do so.
"Numerous Israeli leaders, including PM Yitzhak Rabin in 1987, have stated that Israel will not be the first to introduce nuclear weapons to the region, which Netanyahu has repeated. But if Israel did have low-yield nuclear weapons, these could deliver the necessary firepower to destroy Fordow. For example, the US GBU-57 has a yield of approximately the equivalent of 2 tons of TNT; whereas the lowest yield nuclear weapon was the US Davy Crockett, which had a yield of approximately 10 tons.
"
Williams further said that mere strong hint by Israel that it is considering using a nuke to take out the Fordow facility might be enough to coerce Iran to back down and return to negotiations.
What is the Fordow facility?
Fordow is located near Qom, about 30 kilometers northeast of the city, and is built deep inside a mountain, estimated to be 80 to 90 meters underground. This depth and the facility's hardened construction make it resistant to conventional aerial attacks and most bunker-buster bombs currently available to Israel.
The Fordow facility spans approximately 54,000 square feet and houses around 3,000 centrifuges.
It is unique in Iran's nuclear infrastructure as the only site where uranium particles enriched to near weapons-grade levels have been detected by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Iran has enriched uranium there up to 60 percent, with reports of uranium enriched as high as 83.7 percent, which is close to weapons-grade purity.
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