India's water threat is misplaced; Kashmiris will pay the price

Business Recorder

05-05-2025

The local political leadership of Indian-held Kashmir is not convinced by the argument that the Narendra Modi-led government can stop the flow of rivers entering Azad Jammu and Kashmir from Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK).
They argue that the Indus Waters Treaty cannot be violated. In the aftermath of the Pahalgam terror attack that claimed 26 lives, India announced its intention to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty.
Background
The Indus Waters Treaty was a water-distribution treaty between India and Pakistan arranged and negotiated by the World Bank, to use the water available in the Indus River and its tributaries. It was signed in Karachi on September 19, 1960 by then Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and then Pakistani President Field Marshal Ayub Khan.
It divides the six rivers of the Indus basin between the two countries – allocating the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab) to Pakistan, and the eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej) to India.
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Despite multiple wars and ongoing hostilities, the treaty has endured as a rare symbol of bilateral cooperation. Any attempt to unilaterally suspend or violate it raises serious legal and humanitarian concerns.
Mehraj Malik, a Member of the Legislative Assembly (MLA) from Indian held Jammu and Kashmir elected on an Aam Aadmi Party ticket, argues that India lacks the mechanism to divert the waters of the Chenab River.
As a resident of Jammu and Kashmir, I am deeply familiar with the rivers, streams, and rivulets that traverse this land.
He said that as a resident of IIOJK , he was deeply familiar with the rivers, streams, and rivulets that traversed the land.
According to Malik, any attempt by India to stop the river's flow by constructing dams or similar structures would primarily harm the people of Indian administered Jammu and Kashmir. He warns that the region itself could be submerged long before such measures cause any trouble for Pakistan.
But first, one must ask: how exactly do they plan to stop this water?
Before making bold claims about halting river flows, one must first understand the geography and reality on the ground.
The idea that India can unilaterally stop or divert the waters of rivers like the Chenab is not only technically flawed – it is dangerously self-defeating. Even if such water were stopped for a month, the immediate and most severe impact would fall on the local population of Indian side of Jammu and Kashmir, not on Pakistan.
Those advocating for water manipulation seem disconnected from practical realities. Where exactly will this water go? What is the alternative route? The Chenab ultimately flows into the Arabian Sea – do they believe it will simply evaporate or disappear along the way?
To divert this water into Indian Punjab or elsewhere, a complex infrastructure would be required, likely taking decades to construct. And if the plan is to store the water and release it in bulk as a form of pressure on Pakistan, then it must be asked: who will suffer first from the resulting floods or shortages?
The answer is simple – the people of Indian side of Jammu and Kashmir, will bear the brunt. Any such move would cause irreparable harm to our people of Indian Kashmir, the agriculture, and way of life, long before it affects Pakistan.
Such rhetoric may serve political optics, but the consequences would be far more real – and far more devastating – on other side of the Line of Control (LoC).
For Pakistan, the Indus Waters Treaty is not just a diplomatic agreement – it is a foundation of national water security.
With nearly 80% of its agriculture and livelihoods dependent on these rivers, any disruption would have catastrophic consequences for food production, public health, and economic stability.
India's threat to suspend the treaty sets a dangerous precedent, one that undermines regional peace and weaponizes a shared natural resource.
At a time when climate change is already straining water availability, politicizing river flows could push the region into deeper conflict.
For the sake of regional stability and the welfare of millions, the sanctity of the Indus Waters Treaty must be preserved at all costs.
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