Israel-Iran ceasefire could be a diplomatic triumph for Trump and see him remould Middle Eastern politics
DONALD Trump's style is diplomacy on steroids.
There's a concept known as Trump Time, which is three times faster than everybody else wants to move at.
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Generally, that creates disasters, but given the law of averages, that sort of disruption sometimes works out.
Despite his F-bomb attack on Israel and Iran for breaking the ceasefire, the events of the last few days could turn into a diplomatic triumph for President Trump.
He took a massive military risk at the weekend to bomb three Iranian sites using B-2 bombers carrying their Massive Ordnance Penetrator bombs, alongside 30 Tomahawk cruise missiles fired from an Ohio-class submarine, probably the USS Georgia cruising somewhere under the Arabian Sea.
If US action has not effectively destroyed the Iranian nuclear programme, it has certainly set it back a long way.
When the Iranians responded with an attack on the US airbase in Qatar in a rather careful and measured way, we all wondered what Trump would do.
When he suddenly announced an overnight ceasefire, presumably negotiated over the telephone, it was fairly astonishing – Trump Time again.
But immediate ceasefires tend not to be very stable.
Ceasefires usually take some time to negotiate so everybody knows what's supposed to happen and when it's supposed to happen.
A monitoring mechanism is needed to make sure it doesn't fall apart by accident.
'They don't know what the f**k they're doing!' Trump rages as he blasts Israel AND Iran for breaking hours-old ceasefire
Even though Trump claimed Israel and Iran 'don't know what the f*** they are doing' and ordered the Israelis 'do not DROP those bombs', he effectively put an end to this immediate round of warfare between them.
If that all holds, whether you like Trump or not, you would have to say that's a very positive result.
He could now be in a position to preside over a remoulding of Middle Eastern politics.
It could all go spectacularly wrong, of course, but at the moment President Trump goes to the NATO summit with a sense of triumph in his Middle Eastern policy.
Twenty-four hours earlier it looked as if this issue would wreck the summit by taking it over and exposing enormous differences between Europe and America.
Now he might be in a position to leave the NATO summit with a triumph in the Middle East and having strong-armed the Europeans into putting 5 per cent of their GDP into defence.
That would be a great headline to take back to Washington, where the plaudits would be loud indeed.
It's all high-risk diplomacy, of course, that could go wrong pretty quickly.
But that's the way he operates.
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Reuters
25 minutes ago
- Reuters
Fragile ceasefire holding, Trump envoy says peace talks with Iran 'promising'
WASHINGTON/TEL AVIV/ISTANBUL, June 25 (Reuters) - The ceasefire brokered by U.S. President Donald Trump between Iran and Israel appeared to be holding on Wednesday a day after both countries signalled that their air war had ended, at least for now. Each side claimed victory on Tuesday after 12 days of war, which the U.S. joined with airstrikes in support of Israel to take out Iran's uranium-enrichment facilities. Trump's Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, said late on Tuesday that talks between the United States and Iran were "promising" and that Washington was hopeful for a long-term peace deal. "We are already talking to each other, not just directly but also through interlocutors. I think that the conversations are promising. We are hopeful that we can have a long-term peace agreement that resurrects Iran," Witkoff said in an interview on Fox News' "The Ingraham Angle" show. "Now it's for us to sit down with the Iranians and get to a comprehensive peace agreement, and I am very confident that we are going to achieve that," he added. Trump said over the weekend that U.S. stealth bombers had "obliterated" Iran's programme to develop nuclear weapons. Iran says its enrichment activities are for civilian purposes only. But Trump's claim appeared to be contradicted by an initial report by one of his administration's intelligence agencies, according to three people familiar with the matter. One of the sources said Iran's enriched uranium stocks had not been eliminated, and the country's nuclear programme, much of which is buried deep underground, may have been set back only a month or two. The White House said the intelligence assessment was "flat out wrong." According to the report, which was produced by the Defense Intelligence Agency, the strikes sealed off the entrances to two of the facilities, but did not collapse underground buildings, said one of the people familiar with its findings. Some centrifuges remained intact, the Washington Post said, citing an unnamed person familiar with the report. Trump's administration told the United Nations Security Council on Tuesday that its weekend strikes had "degraded" Iran's nuclear programme, short of Trump's assertion that the facilities had been "obliterated." Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Tuesday that the attack had removed the nuclear threat against Israel and he was determined to thwart any attempt by Tehran to revive its weapons program. "We have removed two immediate existential threats to us: the threat of nuclear annihilation and the threat of annihilation by 20,000 ballistic missiles," he said. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said his country had successfully ended the war in what he called a "great victory," according to Iranian media. Pezeshkian also told Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman that Tehran was ready to resolve differences with the U.S., according to official news agency IRNA. Israel launched the surprise air war on June 13, attacking Iranian nuclear facilities and killing top military commanders in the worst blow to the Islamic Republic since the 1980s war with Iraq. Iran, which denies trying to build nuclear weapons, retaliated with barrages of missiles on Israeli military sites and cities. Israel's military lifted restrictions on activity across the country at 8 p.m. local time (1700 GMT) on Tuesday, and officials said Ben Gurion Airport, the country's main airport near Tel Aviv, had reopened. Iran's airspace likewise will be reopened, state-affiliated Nournews reported. Oil prices edged higher on Wednesday, finding some respite after plummeting in the last two sessions, as investors assessed the stability of the ceasefire and the diminished prospect of an Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The truce appeared fragile: Both Israel and Iran took hours to acknowledge they had accepted the ceasefire and accused each other of violating it. Trump scolded both sides but aimed especially stinging criticism at Israel, telling the close U.S. ally to "calm down now." He later said Israel called off further attacks at his command. Israel's defence minister, Israel Katz, said he told his U.S. counterpart, Pete Hegseth, that his country would respect the ceasefire unless Iran violated it. Pezeshkian likewise said Iran would honour the ceasefire as long as Israel did, according to Iranian media. Israeli armed forces chief of staff Eyal Zamir said a "significant chapter" of the conflict had concluded but the campaign against Iran was not over. He said the military would refocus on its war against Iran-backed Hamas militants in Gaza. Iranian authorities said 610 people were killed in their country by Israeli strikes and 4,746 injured. Iran's retaliatory bombardment killed 28 people in Israel, the first time its air defences were penetrated by large numbers of Iranian missiles.
Reuters
30 minutes ago
- Reuters
Cuomo concedes to Mamdani in New York City Democratic mayoral contest
June 24 (Reuters) - Former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo on Tuesday conceded to state lawmaker Zohran Mamdani in the Democratic primary election for New York City mayor, setting up the 33-year-old democratic socialist Mamdani to win the party's nomination in the heavily Democratic city.
The Independent
37 minutes ago
- The Independent
Andrew Cuomo concedes to democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani in Democratic primary for New York's next mayor
Zohran Mamdani, a 33-year-old democratic socialist and state lawmaker, is on track to win the Democratic primary for New York City's next mayor, marking a major upheaval of the city's political landscape with all eyes on the future of the fractured party. Former New York governor Andrew Cuomo — widely considered a front-runner against a field of progressive candidates who urged supporters to keep him off their ballots — called Mamdani to concede Tuesday night. 'Tonight was not our night,' Cuomo said in remarks to supporters. 'Tonight is his night. He deserved it. He won.' Mamdani's campaign — fueled by a groundswell of grassroots support that stretched across the boroughs — had 'inspired them and moved them and got them to come out and vote,' Cuomo said. 'He really ran a highly impactful campaign,' he said. Mamdani received 43.5 percent of first-place votes in the city's ranked-choice voting system to Cuomo's 36.3 percent, according to early results from the New York City Board of Elections on election night. The board will continue tallying votes from ranked-choice ballots, which allows New Yorkers to pick up to five candidates in order of preference, with votes for lower-ranked candidates adding to top choices in subsequent counts. The system is designed to avoid a runoff election by having voters rank their top five candidates for citywide races. Cuomo has said that, if he loses the primary, he will, much like current Mayor Eric Adams, run as an independent in November's general election. A poll released on Monday by Emerson College showed Cuomo leading with 35 percent on election night, followed by Mamdani at 32 percent, and New York City comptroller Brad Lander at 13 percent. But in a simulation of the city's ranked-choice voting system, Mamdani came out on top throughout eight rounds, with 52 percent to Cuomo's 48 percent. Unlike Cuomo, Mamdani worked alongside other Democratic challengers, including cross-endorsing with Lander, urging voters against ranking Cuomo at all. Cuomo, who was pulling ahead in public opinion surveys in weeks leading up to the race, was powered by a multi-million dollar political action campaign that flooded mailboxes and the airwaves with anti-Mamdani advertisements. Mamdani, meanwhile, relentlessly focused a campaign around affordability, including pledging to freeze rent in tens of thousands of rent-controlled apartment units, boosting taxes on the wealthiest residents to fund free buses, and create city-owned grocery stores to avoid a growing cost of living crisis in one of the country's most expensive places to live. His social media savvy campaign included more than 50,000 volunteers who canvassed across the city. If elected, Mamdani would also be the New York's first Muslim and Indian American mayor.
