Inside NAMPO: South Africa's agricultural exhibition in the Free State
Each year, the quiet fields of Bothaville in South Africa's Free State transform into the epicenter of the country's agricultural industry. NAMPO, the largest agricultural exhibition in sub-Saharan Africa, draws thousands of farmers and industry leaders. Daily Maverick's photographer Felix Dlangamandla captured the show.
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Daily Maverick
6 days ago
- Daily Maverick
Daily Maverick partners with Cape Town summit to champion informed dialogue on AI
The new AI Empowered summit in August aims to make artificial intelligence accessible and accountable to ordinary professionals, educators, creatives and citizens – using AI to think bigger, move faster and lead faster. Daily Maverick is proud to announce its support for a new summit focused on making artificial intelligence (AI) accessible, actionable and relevant for South Africans. AI Empowered (AIE) will take place on 7 and 8 August 2025 at the Cape Town International Convention Centre. How do we prepare for a future we don't fully understand? As AI accelerates into every part of our lives, South Africans need more than buzzwords. We need clarity, access and serious conversation. It's easy to feel like AI is something happening out there – in techland, in code, in jobs that don't look like yours. But AI is already shaping how we work, how we learn and how we're governed. And in a country like South Africa – where inequality, unemployment and institutional fragility run deep – it's not a trend to observe; it's a force to understand, urgently. PwC South Africa's 'Value in Motion' report estimates that AI could add R129-billion to the country's GDP by 2030, with Africa as a whole standing to gain up to R1.9-trillion. The sectors with the greatest potential impact? Healthcare, education, financial services, agriculture and government. But that future doesn't build itself. And if we don't engage critically with what AI is and what it isn't, we risk repeating the mistakes of every other digital divide. Bringing AI down to Earth That's what makes this summit worth noticing – not for its glitz, but for its grounding. Inspired by the Entrepreneurs' Organization Cape Town, AIE is attempting to make AI accessible and accountable to ordinary professionals, educators, creatives and citizens. It positions itself as a summit about humans, using AI to think bigger, move faster and lead faster. Over two days, AIE will host conversations that go beyond the hype and into the real questions facing South Africans and the world today. With input from local and global thinkers in ethics, policy, education, tech and law, AIE is not selling a product; it's opening a conversation. What's on the table? Yes, there'll be a programme – three stages, 1,500 attendees, keynote speeches, panels and workshops. There'll be big names like Western Cape premier Alan Winde, AI ethics advocate Nazareen Ebrahim and Shoprite CTO Chris Shortt. And, yes, there's a track on how AI is already transforming business strategy, law, creative industries and climate science. But the real value might be in the tone: less promise, more proof. Less marketing, more meaning. AI in a South African context According to the World Economic Forum's Future of Jobs report, 44% of core job skills are expected to change in the next five years due to automation and AI. South Africa, with its complex labour market and education challenges, can't afford to sleepwalk through that shift. At the same time, AI presents enormous opportunities for scale and reach. Already, homegrown innovation is using AI for language translation in education, telemedicine in rural clinics and agricultural optimisation in drought-stricken provinces. What's needed now is not just policy, but participation. Why Daily Maverick is watching closely At Daily Maverick, we don't partner lightly. We're here because we believe that a better-informed public is the foundation of any future worth having. And AI, like climate change or inequality, is now a civic issue, not just a technological one. Join the conversation If you're curious, cautious or just craving clarity. Because South Africa can't afford to wait for others to define the future.
Daily Maverick
6 days ago
- Daily Maverick
Running on empty – OECD, banks and business warn SA of stagnation
The OECD's latest Economic Survey, backed by Treasury, leading economists, the RMB/BER Business Confidence Index and the recently released Kearney Global Economic Outlook, warns that failure to implement urgent structural reforms risks tipping South Africa into an entrenched economic stall. South Africa's economic growth is not just slowing – it's stalling. The OECD's 2025 Economic Survey is a mirror that few policymakers want to face, and reinforces much of the analysis of South Africa's economic trajectory – and the answer is not good. GDP per capita remains lower than it was in 2007. South Africa is the only G20 country whose investment rate has declined over the past decade. That's not just a warning sign – it's an indictment. The RMB/BER Business Confidence Index, compiled by the Bureau for Economic Research, shows confidence remains below the 50-neutral mark across sectors, with manufacturers and retailers especially pessimistic about fixed investment prospects. RMB Macroeconomist Keabetswe Mojapelo told Daily Maverick, 'It's not just interest rates – it's policy unpredictability and grid instability weighing on business decisions'. What's new is the institutional alignment. Treasury, economists consulted by Daily Maverick, and the OECD itself now converge around a single diagnosis. As economist Dawie Roodt put it: 'We know what needs to be done, but the politics always get in the way.' Can we grow below water? The OECD projects just 1.5% GDP growth in 2025 – a figure too weak to reduce unemployment, too shallow to sustain revenue and far below peer economies. India has averaged above 6% for the past decade. South Africa, by contrast, is now 0.7% smaller than it was in 2019 in real per capita terms. The Kearney Global Economic Outlook, published in May 2025, places South Africa in the 'low potential' quadrant, citing sluggish domestic reform momentum, capital flight risk and tepid FDI inflows despite global capital rotation. Public investment has collapsed – down 26% since 2016. 'It's been a lost decade for growth… there's a risk this becomes the new normal,' says Izak Odendaal, chief investment strategist at Old Mutual Wealth. Debt dominates our fiscal table Debt-to-GDP stands at 77.4%. Crucially, interest payments now absorb 5.2% of GDP, outpacing allocations to school infrastructure and police services combined, and noted as 'fiscally unsustainable' in the OECD's report. 'The electricity reform is the clearest example of a reform that is actually working… But now it's time for phase two: fixing the grid, getting the transmission constraints resolved and ensuring that independent power producers can come fully online,' says Odendaal. Treasury acknowledges the bind, but has yet to commit to a fiscal anchor. Options include an expenditure ceiling, a primary surplus path, or a hard cap linked to GDP, but no model has been confirmed, which means no clear roadmap to solving our economic crisis. 'We're waiting for a crisis,' says Roodt. 'Just like with load shedding.' Electricity retrospectively a core constraint Load shedding cut 1.5 percentage points from GDP in 2023. The number of blackout days has dropped – from 289 in 2023 to just 69 so far in 2024 – but fragility remains. Grid access for IPPs is constrained, Eskom's debt is unresolved, and municipal billing failures compound the risk, particularly in metros where Eskom's non-payment battles have delayed revenue and planning cautions that while the load-shedding reprieve has helped sentiment, 'corporate boards remain wary. Private investment in energy hinges on regulatory transparency and a credible path to grid upgrades.''Restoring energy security remains essential to unlocking growth,' Deputy Finance Minister Ashor Sarupen said at the OECD report launch. The OECD highlights overdue steps: transmission unbundling, tariff reform, and substation investment. Sarupen confirmed alignment with the Just Energy Transition Investment Plan (JET-IP) but warned of slow procurement cycles. Good plans, but slow hands The OECD praises Operation Vulindlela's design: 74% of phase one reforms are complete or on track. But execution lags in core infrastructure – rail, water, ports. Delays in freight rail liberalisation and digital spectrum rollout are holding back productivity. 'We're shifting water and electricity to utility models,' said Sarupen. Yet, as Odendaal notes, 'There's a danger in mistaking plans for outcomes.' The OECD calls for binding timelines, stronger intergovernmental coordination, and clarity on cost-recovery mechanisms for state internal sentiment tracking finds infrastructure policy scepticism remains high among surveyed CFOs and investors, despite recognition of Operation Vulindlela's design integrity. Jobs, grants, fiscal issues Unemployment is 32.6%. Among youth, it's over 60%. Over half of South Africans now rely on social grants. 'It's not just unemployment,' Roodt observes. 'Absolute poverty is rising too.' The OECD warns that job creation 'remains insufficient to absorb new entrants,' and that the labour market is structurally exclusionary. South Africa's employment-to-population ratio is far below its emerging market peers – not a temporary downturn, but a reflection of deep systemic failure. Informal work remains the fallback for millions, yet remains under-supported and outside the tax, training, and credit warns that 'continued joblessness and poor training-to-work transitions are not just economic drags, they risk becoming political liabilities.' Odendaal highlights the risk to institutional stability: 'The legitimacy of the entire system is increasingly under pressure. If a third of your population can't find a job and more than half are on grants, what kind of social contract is that?' He adds: 'We risk ending up with a situation where unemployment isn't just a growth or budget issue anymore – it starts undermining trust in public institutions.' Treasury points to youth employment schemes, such as the Presidential Employment Stimulus and SETA-linked training. But uptake is low, and outcomes are poorly tracked, with the subsequent risk being these programmes becoming little more than a political goodwill gesture. Education and the fragile foundation The OECD report dedicates an entire chapter to education. South Africa performs below comparable middle-income countries in foundational literacy and numeracy. Grade 4 reading levels are among the lowest globally, as shown in the PIRLS (Progress in International Reading Literacy Study). Without basic education reform, the OECD warns, 'skills shortages will persist, and inequality will deepen.' Fixing the early learning pipeline is no longer optional. What climate transition? The carbon tax rate is R236 per tonne, but exemptions currently shield around 95% of emissions, including Eskom, which remains exempt until 2026. The OECD argues this undermines pricing signals and fiscal potential. Sarupen says allowances will be phased down: 'From 2026, exemptions will narrow. We're preparing the industry for a just transition.' Odendaal is less sanguine: 'The real political heat comes when those exemptions fall away.' The OECD warns that without enforcement, the carbon tax becomes symbolic. With enforcement, it becomes politically explosive. Monetary policy highlighting credibility The OECD recommends tightening the SARB's inflation band from 3-6% to 3-5%, and eventually to 2-4%. Roodt supports the move: 'The Reserve Bank already sees 3% as the midpoint. It's the right signal.' The global trend is toward narrower bands: Brazil and India target 4%; the US Fed anchors at 2%. South Africa's wide range weakens predictability. Disinflation and declining oil prices have opened a window, but anchoring expectations requires follow-through and communication. Broken municipalities Only 15% of municipalities received clean audits, according to the 2023/24 Auditor-General report. Treasury's municipal formula is under review, and Section 139 interventions have risen, but with limited impact. Odendaal is blunt: 'Local government isn't just failing – it's actively deterring investment.' The OECD agrees: municipal dysfunction is a top-tier risk to housing, infrastructure and basic services. SOEs face parallel crises. Eskom and Transnet's bailouts continue, but performance lags. The OECD calls for hard budget constraints, better board vetting and enforced turnaround all datasets – from the OECD survey to bank confidence trackers and global macro outlooks – the signals are converging. South Africa's structural constraints are no longer abstract policy concerns. They are now active barriers to private investment, job creation and political in the private sector, hope is cautious. Mojapelo notes that while sentiment indicators remain weak, 'credible movement on energy, logistics and fiscal clarity could shift the dial – but the window is narrowing.' It's reform or relapse This is not a technical debate, but an economically existential one. The OECD warns that without implementation credibility, South Africa risks falling into a low-growth trap that becomes ever more permanent.'Growth must be inclusive, climate-aligned and reform-led,' Sarupen said.
Daily Maverick
6 days ago
- Daily Maverick
Spar's reset continues – but dividends remain off the table
Spar shareholders might still be waiting for a dividend, but with a strategic retreat from Europe and a renewed focus on local markets, there's hope for payouts by 2026—if it can navigate the consumer pressure back home. There is still no dividend for Spar shareholders, almost three years after the last payout. But the tide may turn by the end of 2026. Spar chief financial officer Reeza Isaacs told Daily Maverick this week that while no dividend had been declared for the interim period, the company was modelling scenarios to possibly resume payouts within the next 18 months. 'We were a dividend-paying share,' Isaacs said, 'and I think our investors expect us to get back to paying dividends.' Spar is retreating to familiar territory after burning a few bucks in Europe and is preparing to face a battered consumer back home. The company is scaling back on its operations in Europe and keeping its eye on the markets it believes it can count on during this 'strategic reset'. 'We completed our exit from Spar Poland in January this year and finalised the restructure of our southern African debt in March,' Spar group CEO Angelo Swartz said. 'The decision to exit Switzerland and the UK was taken after a strategic review of our European footprint. These actions align with our long-term commitment to focus on our core geographies.' Trouble in the Alps and rain over Devon This move back to core markets comes after heavy losses and operating headaches in Europe. Spar's Swiss and UK ventures, once part of a grand international expansion, have been declared discontinued operations. The Swiss arm posted an operating loss of CHF2.4-million (R52-million), after a cyberattack in March cost the company an estimated CHF2.5-million (R54-million) in profitability, Swartz said. Concerning the sale process of Spar's UK and Swiss operations, Isaacs told Daily Maverick that it was 'still in negotiation'. Poland: A 'necessary' loss Between impairments, foreign exchange translation losses, and debt repayment costs, Swartz said the exit from Spar ventures in Poland alone delivered a R531-million blow to Spar's income statement. He framed the loss as necessary: 'This transaction was a key enabler of our balance sheet optimisation strategy,' he said, noting that there were no further cash exposures linked to the now disposed of Polish operations. In the meantime, management insists the strategy is working. 'We are building a stronger, more profitable foundation. Our cost discipline, margin management and pricing strategy are working,' Swartz said. 'We're making more from each rand we earn,' Schwartz said. How does this affect you? Spar's exit from Europe means its attention, energy and cash are now concentrated at home. That could mean more promotion, investment in delivery and better competition against heavyweights such as Checkers and Pick n Pay. But it's also a sign of the pressure consumers are facing. Spar's data shows that customers are doing more small shops and sticking to budget-friendly items. Back from the brink in KZN Stabilisation of Spar's KwaZulu-Natal distribution centre, which previously experienced significant issues with its SAP system, contributed to an improved operating margin. Isaacs called KZN's recovery 'a strong turnaround with a marked improvement in profitability'. But Swartz was candid about the ambitions of the group's revenue. 'Let's be candid: sales growth was below expectations. The southern African consumer is still under severe pressure.' For a while now, South Africans have been price conscious, said Prof Ronald Goldberg, associate professor in marketing management at North West University. This is even more prevalent in 2025 due to rising fuel prices, inflation and limited disposable income, he noted. In Ireland, Spar's revenue fell marginally amid store closures and volume declines driven by inflation, Isaacs said, and added that high-cost categories like cacao and coffee took a hit, while tobacco sales dipped from the previous year. According to McKinsey's 2024 State of Grocery Retail report, retail media networks (RMNs) are boosting retailers' bottom lines in Europe and North America and could offer similar gains in South Africa. (Graph: McKinsey) Cost, convenience, and playing catch-up The company is relying on a few strategies to win back market share. These include improving its price perception, scaling online and on-demand fulfilment, and supporting store level execution through retailer rebates, Swartz said. SPAR2U, the company's online grocery delivery service and app, saw delivery volumes surge to 174% year on year and operates in 580 locations. Spar's new partnership with UberEats is also expanding its reach without the cost of new retail space. Offering multiple platforms to a consumer is a complex task and could hold increased risk for any retailer if not implemented with caution, Goldberg said. 'For a retailer like Spar, the implementation of a multi-platform approach could enhance brand presence as well as diversify their value proposition.' Isaacs said that even though they were 'playing catch-up' when launching SPAR2U, the growth they had seen from the service had been exponential, which showed that consumers preferred online grocery shopping. 'Many customers are becoming increasingly motivated by convenience,' Goldberg said and added that before the pandemic, South Africans were sceptical about online shopping. 'Since then, consumers have now become so used to shopping for anything anywhere by pushing a few buttons on a device.' According to Swartz, Spar's customer loyalty remains strong at nearly 80%. But he has ambitions to improve on this figure: 'We're just on 79% right now. I'd like to see a 12-month rolling average over 80%,' he said. Brand loyalty still exists, but it's no longer unconditional. 'Consumers weigh price and convenience heavily, while brand loyalty is earned through sustained performance and relevance,' said Goldberg. Spar and brand equity With retailers such as Checkers investing heavily in innovation and customer experience, Goldberg says that Spar's continued relevance will depend on: Its ability to standardise core brand values; Leveraging its localised strengths; and Continuing to offer increased value and reasons for customers to shop at its stores. Shifts in consumer choices The average basket size of Spar consumers remains stable, but the frequency of shopping has changed. Schwartz noted smaller, more frequent shops, particularly in its lower-income stores, which grew more than 6% as top-end clusters declined. 'This affirms our strategy to deepen the value offer,' Schwartz said, referring to SaveMor, Spar's private budget-conscious label. Goldberg agrees. 'Consumers are opting to buy value items instead of luxury items. I believe the majority of the South African market constitutes a cost-sensitive market currently, where success in selling products depends on the perceived value-for-money equation.' Spar COO Megan Pydigadu added that any divestment decision in Switzerland would prioritise continuity and sustainability. 'We want to make sure we are disposing of the business in the best manner for our employees in Switzerland, for our retailers and also our suppliers,' she said. Looking ahead, the company is focusing on operational execution, strategic partnerships and margin discipline to turn the tide. 'We understand this environment,' Schwartz said. 'We've taken steps to shield the business from the worst of it, and we are now better positioned to capture upside when the consumer turns.' 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