A return to normalcy in South Korea, but hard work lies ahead

Japan Times

13 hours ago

Lee Jae-myung, a progressive who leads the Democratic Party of Korea, is the new president of South Korea.
His victory Tuesday in a ballot to replace Yoon Suk Yeol, impeached after trying to launch a coup last year, caps an extraordinary life that took him from slums outside Seoul to his nation's highest office.
He will need all that experience to address the daunting array of challenges — most immediately, uniting a bitterly divided public — that he inherits. Lee moderated his positions during the campaign in an attempt to make that job easier. That was enough to win a mandate in this week's ballot but far more will be required if South Korea is to navigate the difficult political and economic shoals that it faces.
Lee, the front-runner from the start of the campaign, decisively bested conservative party candidate Kim Moon-soo, winning 49.4% of the vote to Kim's 41.2%, a nearly 3-million vote margin. Just under 80% (79.4%) of 44.39 million eligible voters cast ballots, second only to the 1997 election, when turnout reached 80.7%. By most accounts, the outcome was a referendum on Yoon and his catastrophic move to declare martial law six months ago.
Lee has twice run for the presidency and his victory caps a remarkable journey. He was born in poverty, the fifth of seven children, in Andong, a city south of Seoul. He dropped out of middle school to earn money working in a factory. An accident at work left one arm permanently injured.
He became a human rights lawyer and activist before commencing his political career. He served as mayor of the city of Seongnam, home to around 1 million people, and governor of Gyeonggi province. From there, he launched his failed first attempt to win the presidency, losing to Yoon by 0.7% of votes cast, the smallest margin in South Korean history.
That served as his springboard to the National Assembly (after several failed attempts), where he led the opposition and worked assiduously to frustrate Yoon's ambitions and agenda. The success of those efforts prompted Yoon to declare martial law. Lee was attacked by an assassin in January 2024; a stab wound was serious but not life threatening. During this campaign, however, he often wore a bulletproof vest and spoke behind bulletproof glass.
Lee was sworn in as 14th president of South Korea on Wednesday and promptly got to work on a 'mission of restoring democracy.' He noted after his victory that 'my responsibility is not to be a ruler, but to be a leader who brings people together.'
That task goes hand in hand with putting the country's economy on stronger footing. Six months of interim rule in Seoul coincided with the advent of the second Trump administration, which has imposed tariffs on all trading partners and demanded concessions that few governments, much less one with no mandate, would have a hard time accepting.
Those tariffs are extensive: 10% on all exports, 25% on steel and aluminum that doubled the day Lee was sworn in, 25% duties on imports of automobiles and Trump has threatened more on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, two other important products for the country. They weigh especially heavily on an export oriented economy like that of South Korea.
As a result, the Bank of Korea cut the country's growth forecast for this year by almost half (from 1.5% to 0.8%); that's only the fourth time in four decades that growth has dropped below 1%. The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development aligned with that assessment, concluding that South Korea's growth would slow to 1% in 2025. Historically, exports have been the engine of recovery when the economy has slowed. That does not appear to be possible under current circumstances.
Lee said that he would establish an emergency task force on the economic and trade crisis as his first order as president. The clock is ticking. Trump gave U.S. trade partners 90 days to come up with deals to forestall tariff increases; that deadline was Wednesday and the U.S. said it will impose new levies July 8.
Those efforts will be part of a broader package to improve relations with the United States. Progressives have historically been suspicious of the alliance with the U.S. As part of his tack to the center, Lee has said that it is the cornerstone of South Korean security. The relationship will be challenged by reports that the U.S. seeks to increase the strategic flexibility of its forces on the Korean Peninsula. Allowing them to be used elsewhere in the region raises fears that South Korea is losing priority in U.S. thinking. Rumors of possible withdrawal of a brigade from South Korea inflames those concerns. The South Koreans are acutely aware that U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth skipped Seoul on his two trips to the region.
Keeping Trump happy while maintaining good relations with China, a critical trade partner, will be difficult. The U.S. president wants trade partners to align with Washington against Beijing, a choice that most Asian nations prefer not to make.
Moreover, Lee, like most progressives, wants to ease tensions and to improve relations with North Korea. That requires a partner in Pyongyang; North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has shown no inclination to reach out to or deal with Seoul. If history is any guide, South Korea will be required to make all the concessions to make any relationship possible. Historically, such efforts have raised tensions with the U.S. Given Trump's relationship with Kim, that might not be a problem this time.
Perhaps the biggest shift in Lee's thinking and the test of his purported foreign policy pragmatism is his view of Japan. Previously, he and his party have used Japan as a whipping boy in domestic politics, opposing reconciliation with this county and various agreements to deal with issues such as the "comfort women," those women and girls who suffered under Japan's military brothel system before and during World War II, or wartime laborers, all of which the Japanese government has said were settled during the 1965 normalization agreement.
During this campaign, Lee said that claims that he is hostile toward Japan are 'a preconception' and instead called it 'a neighboring country, and we must cooperate with each other to create synergy.' He also said that he would continue the reconciliation and trilateral projects launched by Yoon and supported by the U.S.
If he's sincere, he should be able to deliver. His Democratic Party controls the National Assembly in South Korea and those efforts genuinely serve the country's national interest (as well as those of Japan).
Job number one for Lee is revitalizing the economy. While working with the U.S. and mollifying the mercurial figure in the White House is key to that effort, cooperation with Japan (and other nations) will be vital as well. That should not be hard. As ever, Japan and South Korea share concerns and challenges. History continues to throw a long shadow over their relationship, but a bright future is possible only if the two countries recognize the alignment of their interests and work together to realize them. We wish Lee luck in his new job and hope he treats Japan as the partner it can and should be.
The Japan Times Editorial Board