Israel's smaller, sophisticated military opposes larger Iran
Israel's conflict with Iran may look like a mismatch on paper - a nation of nine million people taking on a giant of the Middle East, home to 88 million.But Israel's formidable and sophisticated military forces - with an arsenal largely, but not exclusively, provided by the United States - are enabling it to overpower a much larger enemy.The BBC looks at the military balance in the latest war in the Middle East.
What has Israel achieved so far?
Israel already says it has gained control over the skies over Tehran. It has been a complete mismatch in the air - with no sign of Iran's few ageing fighter jets even getting off the ground. Israel's fleet of modern, US-made fighters have been able to drop guided bombs from short range - with apparently little concern of being shot down.Much of the threat from Iran's air defences was destroyed in an earlier Israeli strike in October - using longer range "stand-off" weapons to target Iran's S300 missile systems. In recent days Israel's air force has continued to target ground-based radar and launchers. Even before the attack got under way, Israel had intelligence operatives inside Iran preparing to disrupt its response. Mossad agents used drones smuggled into the country to target Iran's remaining air defence systems.Israeli attacks also wiped out many in Iran's top level of command, which would have also undermined Iran's response.
Is Iran still able to strike back?
Before Israel began its attacks, Iran had what the US described as the "largest ballistic missile arsenal" in the Middle East.Estimates vary from between 2,000 to 3,000. Some of those, and the factories in which they were produced, have already been hit by Israel. But Tehran has still been able to fire wave after wave into Israel, and some missiles have penetrated its sophisticated air defences. The Israeli military says it has now destroyed a third of Iran's surface to surface launchers. But while Iran's missile programme will have been degraded, it has not been destroyed. It remains the greatest direct threat to Israel.And despite Israel's attacks, Iran still has many short range air defence missiles.Justin Bronk, of the defence think tank Rusi, said that while Israel may now be able to claim air superiority over Tehran, it has still not achieved air dominance and the threat of short range missiles remain.
Does Iran have allies - and what could they do?
Iran has for years invested in Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon with military advice, weapons and technology. But their ability to threaten Israel on its frontiers has been greatly diminished by Israeli action over the last two years: Hamas has been all but destroyed in Gaza, and Hezbollah's potency reduced to the point where it has not responded to Israel's attack on its paymaster.The Houthis, while more distant in Yemen, have still been able to fire the occasional salvo of missiles into Israel. They survived a sustained US bombing campaign earlier this year, and were able to bring down several US Reaper drones with short range ground-to-air missiles.
Could other countries be dragged in?
Iran has the ability to strike western interests in the region. Iranian-backed militant groups in Iraq have targeted western military bases in the region. The US and the UK have been preparing for the worst. There are still around 100 UK personnel based in Baghdad alongside the US military. Their safety is one reason why Kier Starmer, the British prime minister, recently ordered additional RAF Typhoon jets to Cyprus. US and UK military naval personnel and ships are also stationed in Bahrain. The longer this war goes on the greater the risk for western forces in the region.Iran still has the ability to disrupt or choke one of the world's main shipping lanes in the Straight of Hormuz. It may not currently seem wise for Tehran to widen the conflict, but it could do so if it chooses.
Can Israel achieve its goals?
Israel has the upper hand, but the continuation of its military campaign is still largely dependent on US backing. It receives billions of dollars of US military aid each year. Most of the weapons being fired from their American-made jets have been flown in from the US. Even some of the interceptor missiles for its own Iron Dome air defences are made in the US.The "bunker busting" bombs Israel has been using to target Iran's underground nuclear programme are mostly US-supplied. Donald Trump, the US president, has so far been willing to back their use, though it is reported that he vetoed Israeli plans to target Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei.Nor has the US given Israel access to the one weapon that would probably be needed to penetrate Iran's underground nuclear complex at Fordow - the Massive Ordnance Penetrator, a 30,000lb (13,600kg) bomb, which also can only be delivered by US B2 strategic bombers.Even with continuing US military support there will be limits to what Israel can achieve. Air power may set back Iran's nuclear programme, but it won't destroy it. Israeli hopes of toppling the Iranian regime seem highly unlikely. Air campaigns can create fear and chaos and rubble. But think of Libya in 2011, or Israel's continuing assault on Gaza: they rarely result in a clear-cut victory.
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There should be no equivocation over Israel's right to neutralise Iran
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North Korea: What its warship failure teaches us about Kim Jong Un's regime
When North Korea's new warship capsized into the sea during its launch last month, it made international headlines. News organisations followed every development, from its successful refloating to its relaunch last why such interest, given there were no casualties, and the damage to the hull appeared relatively minor?The intrigue has less to do with the failure itself and more with how Kim Jong Un immediately denounced the failure as "a criminal act" that "could not be tolerated", saying it had damaged the country's "dignity". He ordered that the ship be restored immediately, and those responsible be punished. Four party officials were subsequently furious outburst, followed by the ship's swift repair, teaches us a lot about the North Korean regime, whose moves are often so difficult to it reveals how serious North Korea is about building a nuclear-armed having a nuclear arsenal, which is growing in size and sophistication, and an enormous standing army, North Korea's navy is considered greatly inferior to those of its enemies - South Korea, Japan and the United States - who have some of the most powerful naval fleets in the world."Kim Jong Un believes nuclear weapons are the only way he can protect his country, and yet all it has at sea is an old submarine and some small support ships," said Choi Il, a retired South Korean navy almost since the start of his reign, Kim has prioritised building a modern and powerful navy, equipped with nuclear warship is a key first step towards this goal. It is one of two destroyers North Korea has built over the past year, the first of which launched successfully in April. Weighing 5,000 tonnes, they are by far the biggest warships North Korea has, and are capable, in theory, of firing nuclear short-range missiles. According to Mr Choi, who now heads South Korea's Submarine Research Institute, it is extremely rare for a destroyer of this class to capsize during its construction and launch, given the advanced technology required to build one. This would therefore have been "a very embarrassing incident" for Kim Jong Un, he said, as it "highlights the limitations of North Korea's shipbuilding".Worse still, this flagship project failed in front of his eyes. Kim was attending the ship's launch ceremony, along with his daughter and a crowd of spectators."North Korea is obsessed with showing off. I imagine they were planning a whole series of performances, so of course Kim couldn't help but be furious", Mr Choi experts in North Korea propaganda believe there is far more to Kim Jong Un's outburst than raw anger and humiliation. Choosing to publicise the capsizing in the way he did was a deliberate political strategy, they say, and shows Kim is shifting away from the regime's tendency to conceal unpleasant Minyoung Lee from the Washington-based Stimson Centre, who has analysed North Korean propaganda for decades, explained how this has become a core pillar of Kim's propaganda Kim came to power, and even in the early years of his rule, the regime would hide anything negative as a way to control the narrative. But as information has started to spread more freely in North Korea, it has become harder to cover up such major incidents."The leadership decided it was almost silly to try and hide what people already knew, and much more effective to show people they were dealing with problems," Ms Lee said."Now, when there's a problem, you publicise it, you call out those responsible, and demonstrate to people that if you don't do your job, you will be held accountable. And in doing so, you let everyone know that the government and the leadership are doing their jobs well".In the case of the warship, this strategy appears to have worked remarkably effectively. The repairs were completed ahead of schedule, in just over three weeks, defying the expectations of naval experts."The rapid relaunch shows how even a failure can be turned into a political success," said Kim Dong-yup, an assistant professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul. But he and others say Kim has used this incident not just to project success but to strengthen people's loyalty to the regime and its ideology – another consistent feature of his ship capsized as it was launched sideways from the dock into the sea – a complicated maritime manoeuvre – and part of the bow got stuck on the launching ramp. But rather than present this as a technical failure, Kim Jong Un claimed the incident was caused by "absolute carelessness and irresponsibility."In contrast, he praised a worker who died during the ship's construction, for "putting his blood and sweat" into the project."They turned his death into a symbol of devotion, to strengthen people's loyalty," said Professor Kim Dong-yup. Rather than present Kim Jong Un as an infallible god as was the case for his father and grandfather, they elevated the loyal worker, he said. "This is a big shift in North Korea's governing technique and shows Kim Jong Un's astonishing ability to adapt and control the narrative".The biggest takeaway for Ms Lee, the propaganda expert, is that "the North Koreans achieve whatever they set out to do.""They set this goal of having a nuclear armed navy, and now they're demonstrating they're on their way to achieving that". No-one thought they could build the destroyers in just over a year, or repair this damage in less than a month, but they have, Ms Lee added, much like they did with their nuclear and missile programme despite the world's initial retired navy captain Mr Choi agreed. "People may look at this episode and laugh, and think 'oh, North Korea is so far behind', but they're making significant progress", he concerning, say he and others, is that Kim Jong Un is intent on transforming his navy from one that is limited to patrolling its own seas into one that will be able to sail the world's oceans and launch pre-emptive nuclear strikes. "We must be vigilant and prepare accordingly," he said.
