G7 leaders prepare for delicate dance with Trump at summit in Canada
Group of Seven leaders are heading to a mountain resort in the Canadian Rockies this weekend for their first gathering since Donald Trump returned to the White House.
Last time Canada hosted the G7 summit in 2018, Trump blew up the final communique after departing on Air Force One and called former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau "very dishonest & weak.' This year, Israel's attack on Iranian nuclear sites threatens to crowd out well-laid plans to make progress on trade and security.
Prime Minister Mark Carney is hosting an eclectic gathering that will involve a clutch of high-level guests, including Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Narendra Modi from India and Mexico's Claudia Sheinbaum. Australia's Anthony Albanese could prove another flash point since he's under pressure because Trump is considering scrapping a critical submarine deal.
Here's a rundown on what the key leaders are looking for:
Donald Trump, U.S.
What he wants: Trump and the U.S. delegation are coming to drive home their "America First' message and, in contrast to his first term, officials insist that they aren't concerned about what other leaders think. Top of mind for Trump is setting bilateral trade deals on the sidelines of the summit as proof of his tariff and broader economic policy taking shape.
What he wants to avoid: Trump remains at odds with European leaders over Russia's invasion of Ukraine and he won't welcome anyone calling attention to the fact that Israel has ignored his calls not to strike Iran. He'll be trying to ensure that none of that interferes with his priority, which is to renegotiate trade agreements with major U.S. trade partners.
What he really fears: Administration officials say they have little to lose if the Europeans push back against their efforts to reset the transatlantic relationship. But there are growing tensions with his counterparts, and the risk for Trump is that Carney and Japan's Shigeru Ishiba might move closer to the Europeans and create a unified bloc in opposition to his agenda. That would potentially escalate the trade war that Washington started, with serious consequences for financial markets and the U.S. economy.
Potential wildcard: Despite the rifts over the war in Ukraine, Trump has at times signaled openness to impose tougher sanctions on Russia, and that's something the Europeans may be pushing for.
Mark Carney, Canada
What he wants: This is Carney's grand debut after taking office in March. He's run two G7 central banks, and now he is looking to establish himself as a serious player among leaders. He's dramatically hiked Canada's military budget and is laying the foundations for a deal with Trump to lower steel, aluminum and auto tariffs on Canada. He's also aiming to build stronger alliances with other countries at the summit to lessen Canada's dependence on the U.S.
Canadians will not react well if they see Prime Minister Mark Carney getting too friendly at the summit with Trump, who has threatened to annex their country. |
REUTERS
What he wants to avoid: Carney won the election by accusing Trump of betraying Canada. In office, Carney has been more conciliatory. But as summit host, he has to walk a fine line. Canadians will not react well if they see Carney getting too chummy with a president who's threatened to annex their country.
What he really fears: A repeat of the 2018 debacle. One measure of success for Carney will be simply avoiding a major blow-up.
Potential wildcard: Narendra Modi. Carney has taken a political risk in inviting the Indian prime minister despite Canada's ongoing grievance over the killing of a Sikh activist. Modi is not one to stay in the background at summits and he's another leader with whom Carney will have to tread carefully in public since his government stands accused of backing the murder of a Canadian citizen.
Shigeru Ishiba, Japan
What he wants: Ishiba is another leader seeking a trade deal with Trump on the sidelines of the summit and for him, it would be a coup ahead of elections next month. Tokyo has been trying to get the U.S. to lift all the tariffs it imposed on Japan, but negotiations have appeared to flounder in recent weeks.
What he wants to avoid: Ishiba is hemmed in on various fronts. With elections for Japan's Upper House coming up and anger brewing over inflation, he'll be worried about any disputes that might hurt the Japanese economy.
U.S. President Donald Trump not meeting with Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba on the sidelines of the G7 summit could make the prime minister look weak to voters ahead of the Upper House election. |
REUTERS
What he really fears: A snub from Trump. If he fails to secure the bilateral meeting he says he's been promised by the U.S. leader, that will make him look weak to his voters back home. Ishiba is especially vulnerable to comparison with his predecessor Shinzo Abe, who built close ties with Trump in his first presidency and clinched a trade deal with a reprieve on extra auto tariffs.
Potential wildcard: Ishiba is a novice on the world stage, and he was criticized during last year's G20 for struggling to mingle with other leaders. So the optics and his body language will be under a lot of scrutiny.
Friedrich Merz, Germany
What he wants: After having survived his Oval Office meeting with Trump this month, the new chancellor is preparing for his debut on the global stage. With as much as €1 trillion ($1.16 trillion) lined up to kickstart the economy and transform the military, Merz wants to show that Germany is back.
What he wants to avoid: Merz has nursed a 20-year grudge against predecessor Angela Merkel, who famously confronted Trump the last time the G7 came to Canada. He's hypersensitive about anything that makes him look weaker or less experienced than Merkel, who was a veteran of 16 G7 summits.
What he really fears: For Merz and the Europeans, the crucial date with Trump comes later this month at the NATO summit where the U.S. should, in theory, restate its commitment to defending its allies if they come under attack. Any suggestion that Trump might not do that would set alarm bells ringing in Berlin and across the rest of the continent.
Potential wildcard: After his visit to the White House on June 5, Merz sees himself as the leader in Europe who has the best connection to Trump. But France's Emmanuel Macron speaks to the U.S. leader regularly, and Italy's Giorgia Meloni has her own rapport with him. So Merz may find that he's not necessarily first in line.
Emmanuel Macron, France
What he wants: With two years to go in his final term and his domestic rivals gaining support, the French president has been trying to ensure his legacy on foreign policy. He'd love to finally convince Trump that the U.S. has been getting played by Vladimir Putin and persuade the U.S. to impose new sanctions on Russia. He could also do with persuading some leaders to attend his New York conference on Palestinian rights after the summit ends, although the conflict between Israel and Iran threatens to turn that into a sideshow.
What he wants to avoid: Much of Macron's foreign policy has been geared toward preventing the European Union from getting sidelined on key issues, especially the future of Ukraine. He's also been seeking to capitalize on his long relationship with Trump despite some initial bumps, so he'll be hoping not to get caught up in any embarrassing public disputes. Greenland — the Danish territory coveted by Trump — could be one flash point. Macron is traveling to Greenland just before he lands in Canada.
What he really fears: The French economy is a delicate position, and big French companies make billions from the U.S. market, so Macron is desperate to avoid a full-blown trade war with the U.S.
Potential wildcard: Macron and Trump have been chatting on the phone multiple times a week. Now, we get a chance to see how their relationship plays out in public when others are competing for the U.S. president's attention.
Keir Starmer, U.K.
What he wants: The British prime minister is looking for firm commitments on Ukraine and strong language condemning Russia, potentially further sanctions and to avoid trouble with Trump ahead of the critical NATO summit later in the month. This is one part of the job that the 62-year-old premier loves, so he'll also be hoping to enjoy himself and show that the U.K. is back on the world stage after Rishi Sunak's clumsy performance last year in Italy.
What he wants to avoid: Anything that might upset the U.K.-U.S. trade deal, which is still to be implemented. Starmer wants the accord to come into force as soon as possible so that the U.K. doesn't run the risk of falling victim to future tariff threats. He also wants to steer clear of any disputes between Trump and Carney, which the U.K. is liable to get sucked into because Canada is part of the British Commonwealth.
What he really fears: Getting caught at the scene of the crime. If Trump does something outrageous, that would put Starmer in a bind: speak out, and he risks retaliation from the White House; keep quiet, and he could look weak at home. And the British press will be asking him to comment on whatever Trump does throughout.
Potential wildcard: Starmer's popularity has tanked since he won his landslide victory almost exactly a year ago. Nigel Farage — a good friend and admirer of Trump's — is now leading polls, and that's a weak spot that the U.S. president might exploit.
Giorgia Meloni, Italy
What she wants: Italy's prime minister just wants to get in and out of Banff unscathed. She has a good relationship with Trump and a good relationship her European colleagues and has no major policy goals for this meeting. With her domestic situation looking slightly delicate, her aim is to make sure nothing rocks the boat.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's coalition partners and rivals will be watching her carefully at the G7 for any missteps. |
REUTERS
What she wants to avoid: The worst scenario would be a blow up between Trump and the Europeans, which would force her to pick a side.
What she really fears: Within that, tariffs are her biggest fear because they could jeopardize Italy's economy and turn the focus back on the country's perilous public finances.
Potential wildcard: Back home, Meloni's coalition partners and rivals, the League, will be watching for any misstep and seeking to take advantage.
Ursula von der Leyen and Antonio Costa, EU
What they want: The EU's two main representatives will be focused on Ukraine and on trade. They want to persuade Trump to drop his opposition to their plan to lower the price cap on Russian oil, and they are also looking for the strongest backing that they can for Ukraine's future independence and military support, and clarity on global trade.
What they want to avoid: Any curveballs from Trump and his trade advisers that might throw their tariff negotiations off track.
What they really fear: A major blowup before the NATO summit. European leaders will be treading on eggshells until they have secured Trump's renewed commitment to defend NATO allies.
Potential wildcard: Will the EU's top officials finally get a proper sit down with Trump?
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