Erdogan was emboldened to jail Istanbul mayor by global turmoil, analysts say
ISTANBUL (AP) — The imprisonment of Istanbul's opposition mayor has come at a time when Turkey finds itself at the center of geopolitical turmoil that observers say has freed President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to target his most dangerous opponent.
Ekrem Imamoglu was detained in a dawn raid on his official residence last week. On Sunday, a court ordered him to be jailed pending trial for graft offenses including bid-rigging and accepting bribes. He also faces terror-related charges.
As mayor of the economic and cultural capital of Turkey with a population of 16 million, Imamoglu is probably Turkey's second-highest profile politician after Erdogan.
However, analysts say a convergence of international factors gave Erdogan the opportunity to try to neutralize the main threat to him in elections due to be held in 2028, but which could come sooner.
'There are a really special confluence of factors that made this seemingly easy for him to pull off in terms of not suffering international condemnation or punishment for it,' said Monica Marks, professor of Middle East studies at New York University Abu Dhabi.
The arrest of Imamoglu over corruption and terrorism allegations came as a bombshell last Wednesday, despite recent legal cases against district mayors from his Republican People's Party, or CHP.
Since 2016, when Erdogan faced an attempted coup, Turkey's courts have widened their crackdown on opposition parties, using charges such as graft or ties to Kurdish militants to discredit his rivals.
The government, however, says the courts are fully independent and denies claims that legal actions against opposition figures are politically motivated.
Turkey's strategic assets
The European Union, which usually offers criticism of Turkey's democratic slide, currently finds itself in a weaker position vis-a-vis Turkey due to 'American abandonment' of European defense, Russian aggression, and its 'own internal demons' from EU-sceptic forces using migration as a tool to gain relevance, according to Marks.
Ankara is in a position to offer succor in all these areas. Militarily, Turkey has NATO's second largest army in addition to a well-developed defense industry capable of supplying high-tech weaponry such as aerial drones.
During the course of the war in Ukraine, Turkey has maintained close ties with both Moscow and Kyiv and has repeatedly offered to act as a mediator in peace talks.
Turkey is also emboldened by the collapse of the Assad government in neighboring Syria at the hands of rebels it supported over the course of the war. These rebels now make up the new government.
On migration to Europe, Ankara has acted as a barrier since it signed a 2016 deal in which it agreed to prevent migrants crossing its borders and seas to reach the EU.
All these strands increase Turkey's geopolitical importance to Europe.
Turkey's internal politics drove the timing of arrest
President Donald Trump's isolationist outlook has also strengthened Erdogan's hand, said Marks, while the 'normalization of populist authoritarianism makes what Erdogan is doing less shocking, less concerning for Western democracies.'
While international elements offered Erdogan the opportunity to act against Imamoglu, the timing was due to domestic factors.
Berk Esen, a political scientist at Istanbul's Sabanci University, said the CHP's decision to confirm Imamoglu as its presidential candidate for 2028 was key to his arrest.
'Erdogan was hopeful that he could slow down, if not completely hinder, Imamoglu's candidacy prospects,' Esen said. 'But when the CHP decided to hold (presidential) primaries, it became clear that Imamoglu would come out as the candidate for the CHP so Erdogan wanted to move against him right away.'
Those primaries — in which Imamoglu was the only candidate — were held Sunday, confirming the imprisoned Imamoglu as Erdogan's challenger.
The Kurdish factor
Another domestic factor in Erdogan's favor was the tentative peace process begun with the Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, which has waged a 40-year insurgency against the Turkish state and is considered a terrorist organization by Turkey and its Western allies.
Many observers have suggested the process is, at least in part, a bid to co-opt Turkey's pro-Kurdish party into supporting Erdogan's bid for another presidential term. Similarly, it could serve to split the Kurds from the CHP, presenting Erdogan with a divided opposition, Esen said.
Imamoglu has emerged as the main challenger to Erdogan's 22-year rule since he was elected mayor of Istanbul in 2019, overturning a quarter-century of rule by parties from Turkey's conservative Islamist tradition.
According to Esen, he is the 'perfect' candidate to take on Erdogan – relatively young at 53, from a conservative Sunni background but with a 'modern' wife, and hailing from the Black Sea business world that offers nationwide informal connections.
He has outperformed Erdogan in recent polls and represents what Marks called the 'last bastion' of Turkish opposition.
In recent years he has been the target of several criminal cases that could result in prison sentences and a political ban. Last week, a university nullified his diploma, a decision that effectively bars him from running for president.
All of which would make it seem unnecessary to arrest and jail him, risking the public backlash currently being played out in the streets of Turkey.
Selim Koru, a political analyst at the Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey, said the earlier cases would merely make Imamoglu seem a 'perfectly fine politician who was unfairly disqualified.'
Writing in his Kulturkampf Substack, Koru added: 'They had to make him into a villain to give their claims force … The strategic rationale is evident at once. The presidential elections are scheduled for 2028, so the regime wanted to get rid of Imamoglu before then, knock down the CHP while you're at it, then take a couple of years for things to calm down.'
And as to the significance putting Imamoglu behind bars, Marks said it represents the 'last stop on Turkey's political train before it hits full dictatorship station.'
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
15 minutes ago
- Yahoo
As Russian losses in Ukraine hit 1 million, Putin faces an economic time bomb
Russian losses in Ukraine hit a massive, and grim milestone on June 12 — 1 million Russian soldiers killed or wounded during the 39-month-long full-scale war, according to figures from Kyiv. Although hugely symbolic, the number is unlikely to prompt a change in tactics from Moscow as it gears up for more offensives this summer, and escalates drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian civilians. But behind the figure lies an economic time bomb that the Kremlin will find impossible to ignore. "(Russian President) Vladimir Putin made a fundamental strategic mistake in deciding how to resource this war," George Barros, Russia team lead at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), told the Kyiv Independent. "What Vladimir Putin has done is he has created a system in which he doesn't use the monopoly of violence of the Russian state to coerce Russians to go fight and die in Ukraine, as the Soviet Union might have. What Putin has done is he's created an alternative social contract where he pays you to go fight in Ukraine. "That strategy can work if you're planning on running a short war. It does not work if you are running a multi-year protracted war." Russia effectively has two armies — a conscript army, and a contract army. Russia's conscript army is the country's standing armed forces that are required to defend Russia itself. To maintain this force, the Kremlin conducts conscription twice a year, in spring and fall, requiring eligible men to serve for one year. In the latest draft, Putin signed a decree on March 31 ordering the spring conscription of 160,000 men. But crucially, conscripts by law are not allowed to be sent abroad to fight wars in foreign countries, something which is not only a legal contract, but a social contract that is deeply embedded in Russian society — civil society groups consisting of the mothers of conscripts are perhaps the only group of Russian citizens that Putin is still forced to respect and listen to. This is where Russia's contract army comes in. "When the full-scale invasion started, the Russians attacked Ukraine with what they call the contract servicemen, the professional military who have some experience, and (voluntarily) sign contracts for a fixed period of time," Kateryna Stepanenko, Russia deputy team lead and analyst at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), told the Kyiv Independent. But Russia soon ran into a problem — the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The Kremlin had envisioned a swift and easy victory over Ukraine, and the capture of Kyiv within a matter of days. This proved to be a disastrous miscalculation and instead, many of Russia's most elite troops and modern equipment were obliterated by Ukrainian resistance. As the war dragged on, and Russia's losses mounted, Moscow needed to replenish its forces without drawing upon its conscript army and announcing a full mobilization to avoid unrest. A partial mobilization announced in September 2022 led to the only widespread protests against the war inside Russia during the entire full-scale invasion, making clear to Putin that announcing anything more would cause him serious problems. "The Russians realized that they were in a challenging political situation," Stepanenko said. The solution? Pay people to fight. "It is the only way of recruitment for the war now because ideologically motivated recruits ended in spring-summer 2022 and partial mobilization of the fall 2022 created domestic political tensions and risks which were considered as unacceptable for the Kremlin in those circumstances," Pavel Luzin, senior fellow with the Democratic Resilience Program at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), told the Kyiv Independent. Russia's mounting losses throughout the war created a double-edged problem — more and more replacements were needed, but attracting them to what was clearly such a high-risk endeavour necessitated increasing rewards. The solution? Keep offering more and more money. Sign up bonuses for joining the Russian army have ballooned over the course of the war. In July 2024, Putin ordered a doubling of the lump-sum payment offered to recruits in September 2022 to 400,000 rubles (over $5,000). But this was just the base level payment — the Kremlin has placed recruitment quotas on Russian oblasts, meaning some have had to offer many times more than this in order to reach them. "There are some oblasts in central Russia that are offering up to $40,000, 3 million rubles plus, just for a one-time sign-up bonus," Barros said. For context, the average Russian monthly wage in 2024 was $980, so a one-time sign up bonus of $40,000 is nearly four times higher than what the average worker can expect to make in a whole year. But with such huge losses in Ukraine, the bill for the Kremlin is huge. "They lose and recruit somewhere in the ballpark of 35,000 to 45,000 people per month, and perhaps they recruit a little bit north of that number," Barros said. "At $40,000 a head just for the sign-up bonus, let alone salaries and other benefits and remittances if you're killed or wounded, this is a very fast way to not be sustainable." According to an analysis by economist Janis Kluge, Russia's daily bill just for sign-up bonuses is $24 million. The ballooning bills come at a time when Russia's economy is already under huge strain from Western sanctions and falling oil and gas revenues. "The implications for Russia are grave," energy security analyst Wojciech Jakóbik wrote in an op-ed for the Kyiv Independent this week. "Military spending has ballooned to 6.3% of GDP — its highest level since the Cold War — while the budget deficit continues to rise," he added. "To fund its war, the Kremlin is raiding reserves, raising taxes, and cutting social programs. Absent war spending, Russia might already be in recession." Predictions about the imminent collapse of Russia's economy have been made throughout its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, yet so far it hasn't crashed and burned as some expected. But three years of sanctions are eroding the country's fiscal stability, despite Moscow claiming otherwise. Russian GDP growth has dropped precipitously this year as sanctions hamper its main sources of income — oil and gas revenue — and curb imports of components needed for its military-industrial complex. According to Barros, making any predictions about whether or not the Russian economy is going to collapse is "supremely difficult to do," but the signs for the Kremlin "don't bode well." "If you look at the current Russian economic indicators, for example their inflation rate, their overnight lending interest rates, Russian monetary constraints… government spending is out of control — it's a very loose fiscal policy and so the economy is at risk of overheating," he said. "I don't know to what extent the economy can continue to last." Barros said one major thing to keep an eye on are the Russian banks that are taking on "tremendous amounts of debt" in order to finance the Russian economy and the Kremlin's war machine in Ukraine. "I suspect what will happen one day at the current rate is a Russian bank will have to default on its debt and that will trigger some sort of financial meltdown," he said. "I can't name the time or the hour or the place, but it seems very much like Vladimir Putin today is writing checks that Vladimir Putin a year or two years from now will not be able to cash." Currently, Western sanctions against Russia are still in place and the EU has just announced its 18th package. In the U.S., a bipartisan sanctions bill, introduced on April 1 by Republican Senator Lindsey Graham and Senate Democrat Richard Blumenthal, seeks to impose a 500% tariff on imports from countries that continue purchasing Russian oil and raw materials. This would deal another major blow to the Kremlin and its ability to wage war but U.S. President Donald Trump seems in little rush to hurry it through. But the biggest factor in bringing down the Russian economy remains in the hands of Ukraine. "We have to keep reminding ourselves that the key driver, the engine of Russia's economic woes, is in fact its casualty rate and its losses on the battlefield in Ukraine," Barros said. "That is what is driving the need to recruit and replace 45,000 soldiers a month. That is what is destroying all the main battle tanks. That is what is actively destroying the Russians. "And the minute the Ukrainians become less lethal, the minute that the Ukrainians do not impose those heavy losses on Russia at the same scale, then the economic picture becomes much better for the Kremlin." Read also: Putin's suspected daughter found working in anti-war galleries in Paris We've been working hard to bring you independent, locally-sourced news from Ukraine. Consider supporting the Kyiv Independent.
Yahoo
15 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Professor: Los Angeles …You Are Becoming The Exact Thing Trump Needed
Hate to say this but Los Angeles…you're not helping. Before you get mad and turn off your phone, let me explain. Last week, U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents (ICE) arrested 118 immigrants during operations in L.A. Since then, protests have erupted in the city that Mayor Karen Bass says has turn the entire metropolitan area into a 'tinderbox.' In one confrontation, police employed tear gas and pepper spray as protestors gathered outside a detention center on Sunday. President Trump said he would deploy 2,000 National Guard soldiers to respond to the protests. In a post on Truth Social, Trump attacked what he called 'Radical Left protests' by 'instigators and often paid troublemakers.' OK. Listen. We are all sympathetic to the reason why these protests are happening. Treating immigrants this way is not American. This country is unique in that it is one made up of people from other countries. But…these riots and protests? They are doing nothing but distracting us from the sneaky sh*t Trump is doing right in front of our faces. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, passed by the House in May, includes tax cuts, spending cuts, and policy changes that would devastate many Americans, especially Black folks. It would strip millions of heath care and drive many people who look like us into crippling debt. Then there is the travel ban that Trump unsuccessfully tried to implement in his first term that he has gotten little to no resistance on in this second one. People were marching in the streets outraged in 2016, now he has implemented it with little to no pushback. And even though Trump has fallen out with Elon Musk, DOGE is still running roughshod through the federal government. Just a few days ago, the department got access to our SOCIAL SECURITY NUMBERS. (Yes. Had to write it like that because it is a big f**kin' deal.) That means that they have all our sensitive data which is…great. And all the while, Black folks are still being killed by police. Health outcomes of Black people are worse now because public health research is dwindling. And even the wigs and weave will go up because of Trump's Tariffs. So, look. We are with you, Los Angeles. We support your anger. But all these violent clashes with ICE agents and the police? You are exactly the kind of distraction Trump has been needing so he can do what he wants without anyone noticing.
Yahoo
15 minutes ago
- Yahoo
US Ambassador to Russia Tracy leaving post, embassy says
U.S. Ambassador to Moscow Lynne Tracy will soon be stepping down from her post, the U.S. Embassy in Russia announced on June 12. The statement said that Tracy is "concluding her mission at the U.S. Embassy in Russia," without providing further details. The move comes as U.S. President Donald Trump makes a decisive break from the previous Biden administration's Russia policy, aiming to restore relations and negotiate a peace deal in Ukraine. Tracy replaced John Sullivan at the key diplomatic post in Moscow in January 2023, after being nominated by former President Joe Biden. A seasoned diplomat, Tracy previously served as the U.S. ambassador to Armenia and held posts at diplomatic missions in Russia, Turkmenistan, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Afghanistan, and Kyrgyzstan. The embassy announced a live stream on June 13 to "bid farewell" to the outgoing envoy. Tracy led the U.S. mission in Russia in one of the lowest points of the U.S.-Russian relationship in decades, as Washington imposed massive sanctions on Moscow and backed Ukraine against Russian aggression. Though diplomatic contacts during this period were limited, Tracy played a key role in negotiating the release of U.S. citizens held in Russia, such as Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich. The ambassador is concluding her mission after around two years, a similar time period to her predecessor. It is not immediately clear who will replace her. In April, Bridget Brink, the U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, unexpectedly resigned, later explaining the move by opposition to Trump's foreign policy. Russia also appointed its new envoy to the U.S., Alexander Darchiev, earlier this year amid a thaw in U.S.-Russian ties under Trump. Read also: America's weak strongman We've been working hard to bring you independent, locally-sourced news from Ukraine. Consider supporting the Kyiv Independent.
