NHL Playoffs: Montreal Canadiens at Washington Capitals odds, picks and predictions
NHL Playoffs: Montreal Canadiens at Washington Capitals odds, picks and predictions
The Montreal Canadiens and the Washington Capitals open an Eastern Conference best-of-7 first-round series in the Stanley Cup Playoffs Monday. Puck drop from Capital One Arena is set for 7 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's NHL odds around the Canadiens vs. Capitals odds and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.
Regular-season series: Capitals won 2-1
The Capitals wrapped up the regular season with an impressive 51-22-9 record and 111 points -- but considering the pace they set early on, it's surprising they didn't come away with the Presidents' Trophy. Some of that dip may be tied to the attention surrounding LW Alexander Ovechkin's pursuit of history, which seemed to coincide with a late season slump. While the defense had its lapses, Washington's goaltending was elite through much of the year, posting just 2.02 goals against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. However, post-Four Nations break, that strength faded -- the team allowed 3.08 GA/60 over its final 27 games, with a combined save percentage of just .875. As the playoffs begin, Washington is focused on avoiding a repeat of 2010, when it was upset by the eighth-seeded Canadiens in a heartbreaking 7-game series. It'll need sharper play between the pipes to make a deeper run this time around.
The Canadiens have been in must-win mode for the entire second half of the season, picking up 54 points since Jan. 1 to sneak into the playoffs. They finished 40-31-11 after edging out the Hurricanes Wednesday, a win they needed after dropping 3 straight with a chance to clinch earlier. While some believe the momentum may have faded at the worst time, Montreal is back in the postseason for the first time since its 2021 Stanley Cup Final run. The franchise followed that up with the first overall pick in 2022 and fifth overall selections in 2023 and 2024, and that young core is now starting to emerge. LW Juraj Slafkovsky and RW Ivan Demidov are both expected to take on big roles in this first-round series. Pulling off an upset won't be easy, but the playoff experience will be crucial for Montreal's future as its rebuild continues to take shape.
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Canadiens at Capitals odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 4:22 a.m. ET.
Moneyline (ML) : Canadiens +160 (bet $100 to win $160) | Capitals -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
: Canadiens +160 (bet $100 to win $160) | Capitals -190 (bet $190 to win $100) Puck line (PL)/Against the spread (ATS) : Canadiens +1.5 (-160) | Capitals -1.5 (+135)
: Canadiens +1.5 (-160) | Capitals -1.5 (+135) Over/Under (O/U): 6 (O: -102 | U: -118)
Canadiens at Capitals projected goalies
Sam Montembeault (31-24-7, 2.82 GAA, .902 SV%, 4 SO in regular season) vs. Charlie Lindgren (20-14-3, 2.73 GAA, .896 SV%, 1 SO in regular season)
Montembeault stepped up in a big way down the stretch, helping the Canadiens lock in a playoff spot with a strong April performance. The 28-year-old went 5-1-0-1 in his starts this month, posting a 2.12 GAA and a .922 SV%. He set career highs across the board this season, appearing in 62 games with 31 wins, a 2.82 GAA and 4 shutouts. Against Washington this year, Montembeault went 1-1, allowing 6 goals on 74 shots. He's 2-3 lifetime vs. the Capitals with a 3.49 GAA and .893 SV%.
Lindgren shared duties with Logan Thompson for much of the season, but the Capitals leaned on him down the stretch. Lindgren started 7 games in April, going 4-2 with a 3.11 GAA and .881 SV%. He went 1-0 in 2 appearances against Montreal this season, stopping 21 of 24 shots. In his career, he's 3-1 against the Canadiens with a 2.51 GAA and .899 SV%.
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Canadiens at Capitals picks and predictions
Prediction
Capitals 4, Canadiens 2
PASS.
I've got the Capitals holding serve at home Monday night, but I don't like betting nearly 2 units on the ML. I'll take my wager to the puck line.
BET CAPITAL -1.5 (+135).
Both teams may have stumbled into the playoffs, but the Capitals remain one of the NHL's top contenders. Washington boasts experience and firepower, finishing second in the league with 286 goals. C Dylan Strome, C Aliaksei Protas, and RW Tom Wilson each posted career highs in goals, highlighting the team's scoring depth. Montreal, though talented, enters with a young core led by 24-year-olds RW Cole Caufield (37 goals) and C Nick Suzuki (30 goals), along with 21-year-old D Lane Hutson, who notched an impressive 60 assists. However, this marks the first playoff appearance for many of its key contributors. The Capitals handled the Canadiens during the regular season, outscoring them 13-7 across 3 matchups. Washington was dominant at home, posting a 26-9-6 record, while Montreal struggled on the road at 17-19-5. With the edge in experience, firepower and home ice, expect the Eastern Conference's top team to take Game 1 in convincing fashion.
I'm staying away from the total in this matchup. Over their last 10 games, the Capitals and Canadiens are a combined 9-9-2 O/U. Washington can pile on goals, but playoff hockey tends to tighten up. With Montreal's inexperience and postseason intensity, there's too much uncertainty to feel confident. It's best to PASS on the total here.
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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