logo
Milford Haven celebrates community heroes at Citizens' Awards 2025

Milford Haven celebrates community heroes at Citizens' Awards 2025

By-election wins, surging polls and a reshaped Senedd system fuel Reform's rapid rise
REFORM UK is no longer a fringe force in Welsh politics. With polling surges, a local by-election victory, and a favourable new voting system set to reshape the Senedd in 2026, the party is rapidly gaining traction—and some believe traditional parties are failing to grasp the scale of its momentum.
On the rise: Reform in Wales
A May 2025 YouGov/ITV Wales poll placed Reform UK second in Wales with 25% of the projected vote—just behind Plaid Cymru on 30%, and well ahead of Labour on 18%. That number is a stark decline: Labour won a 36% regional vote in 2021, making its current standing half of its previous share.
Disillusionment among Labour voters is evident. Only 40% of those who backed Labour in the 2024 UK general election currently intend to do so for the next Senedd election, with substantial numbers shifting to Plaid Cymru (24%), Liberal Democrats (8%), Reform UK (5%), and Greens (4%).
Local Shifts and Breakthroughs
Michelle Beer has been elected as Carmarthenshire's first Reform councillor (Image: Reform)
On May 29, Reform achieved a breakthrough when Michelle Beer won the Lliedi ward by-election in Llanelli—becoming the party's first elected councillor in Carmarthenshire. In a ward long seen as Labour territory, the win signalled a dramatic shift.
Reform volunteers preparing election materials in Carmarthenshire (Image: Facebook)
That momentum continued days earlier in Pembrokeshire, when Scott Thorley, a former Reform candidate, was co-opted onto Haverfordwest Town Council. His appointment ignited local opposition from campaigners concerned about Reform's stance on the Anti-racist Wales Action Plan (AWAP).
The AWAP Dispute and Political Fallout
Scott Thorley's co-option onto Haverfordwest Town Council has sparked a petition (Image: Supplied)
Reform UK has openly opposed the AWAP, criticising its focus on identity-based policies, such as increased grants for ethnic minority student teachers and cultural accommodation in public spaces. Critics say these measures undermine meritocracy and divide communities.
After Thorley's co-option, political graffiti at Withybush Retail Park—featuring slogans like 'VOTE REFORM' and 'GOD SAVE US'—only intensified debate. Thorley swiftly condemned the graffiti, calling it 'vandalism, plain and simple,' and defended the party's intentions.
'As I have been invited to help on the anti‑racist action plan … I'm really confused by their comments. … Politics is about talking and helping people. … stop acting like stroppy teenagers.'
— Scott Thorley, Town Councillor, speaking to The Pembrokeshire Herald
Leadership turbulence and image strategy
Reform has also faced internal turbulence. Chairman Zia Yusuf, a practising Muslim, resigned on June 5, citing exhaustion and policy disagreements—particularly over a proposed burka ban—but reversed that decision just two days later. He returned to lead a new strategy unit focused on governance, fundraising, and outreach. His continued presence is seen as key to diversifying Reform's image and countering claims of intolerance.
Farage, culture wars, and language policy
Nigel Farage: Wants to scrap Welsh Language targets and identity-based policymaking
At the helm, Nigel Farage has declared Wales a top priority, urging voters to back 'real change'. He promised to scrap policies such as the 20mph default speed limit, the 'Nation of Sanctuary' scheme, and the Welsh Government's goal of one million Welsh speakers by 2050—labelled by Reform as cultural overreach.
While Farage offered limited detail on his opposition to the Welsh-language target, his position aligns with a broader opposition to identity-based policymaking.
Even Plaid warns: 'Reform could win'
The growing momentum behind Reform UK has not gone unnoticed by its political opponents. Speaking at the party's Spring conference in Llandudno, Plaid Cymru's Westminster leader Liz Saville Roberts warned party members that Reform could become the largest party in the Senedd if they are not taken seriously.
'If we—Plaid Cymru—do not provide solutions to Labour's failings, there is something worse waiting in the wings to take their place,' she said.
'If we do not take this threat seriously, they could become the biggest party in the Senedd—our national parliament. If that happens, it would be a disaster for Wales. This must galvanise us.'
Saville Roberts accused Reform of thriving on division and warned that the party would seek to privatise the NHS, strip away workers' rights, and undermine Welsh identity and the language.
Pushback from Welsh leaders
Welsh Labour's First Minister Mark Drakeford condemned the proposal to remove the language goal, asserting that the Welsh language 'belongs to us all' and should be defended from external political interference. Plaid Cymru MS Llŷr Gruffydd dismissed Farage's claims as 'empty soundbites' and accused him of 'railing against Welsh culture and identity' to advance his own agenda.
Labour's collapse in its historical heartlands is resonating at the grassroots. The Barn Cymru poll confirms their support is now the lowest since devolution began, under 20%. Meanwhile, local expressions of discontent are growing, with public services—especially in rural and post-industrial areas—seen as deteriorating, boosting calls for change.
A once-unshakeable Labour dominance is cracking. With Plaid Cymru and Reform UK capitalising on voter fatigue, policy stumbles, and identity politics backlash, Wales is entering a new era of volatility. As the Senedd moves to proportional representation, the question isn't whether Reform will take seats, but whether Labour has already ceded too much ground.

Orange background

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Comments

No comments yet...

Related Articles

Lanarkshire MSP calls on Holyrood to make sure OAPs aren't left behind on winter fuel payments
Lanarkshire MSP calls on Holyrood to make sure OAPs aren't left behind on winter fuel payments

Daily Record

time29 minutes ago

  • Daily Record

Lanarkshire MSP calls on Holyrood to make sure OAPs aren't left behind on winter fuel payments

More than 75 per cent of pensioners in England and Wales will be entitled to the new annual payment of up to £300 after the Labour government abandoned one of its first, and most controversial, policies. A Lanarkshire MSP has called on the Scottish Government to ensure local pensioners aren't left behind following the UK Government's u-turn on winter fuel payments. More than 75 per cent of pensioners in England and Wales will be entitled to the new annual payment of up to £300 after the Labour government abandoned one of its first, and most controversial, policies. ‌ Scotland has already created a devolved benefit of £100 for all pensioner households, potentially leaving hundreds of thousands of Scots worse off than their counterparts south of the border. ‌ Central Scotland list Labour MSP Monica Lennon said 'This is welcome news that will bring even more money to people in Lanarkshire – on top of the record funding settlement Labour delivered for Scotland in the budget. 'While the last Tory government left our public finances in chaos, Labour has made good progress cleaning up the mess it inherited. 'The Winer Fuel Payment is a devolved payment in Scotland and Scottish Labour has been clear that we want to see it reinstated for the majority of pensioners here – but despite their loud spin, the SNP voted against our attempts to do so. 'That's why we are urging the SNP not go ahead with plans that would unfairly hit poorer pensioners. 'The SNP must re-examine their own proposals in light of this game-changing announcement, ensure payments reach those most in need, and give a cast-iron guarantee that no struggling Scottish pensioners will be left out of pocket under their plans.' ‌ Last July, Chancellor Reeves drew widespread criticism over cuts to the winter fuel payment - a lump sum of £200 a year for households with a pensioner under 80, or £300 for households with a pensioner over 80 - in a bid to save an estimated £1.4 billion. In response, the Scottish Government introduced a new scheme offering those in receipt of qualifying benefits like Pension Credit £200 or £300 depending on their age, and £100 for all other pensioner households. ‌ However, while the benefit for pensioners above the income threshold will be clawed back through tax, richer pensioners in Scotland will be able to keep the payment. Following the latest announcement from Westminster, Scottish pensioners who do not get pension credit but whose income is below that £35,000 threshold are expected to receive £100 less than if they lived in England or Wales. Shirley-Anne Somerville said Scotland introduced a winter heating payment for all pensioners because of the UK government's 'betrayal of millions of pensioners'. ‌ She said the Scottish Government welcomed the U-turn, but 'there is still no detail about how the Chancellor intends to go about that'. The social justice secretary said: 'We have once again not been consulted on the policy and its implications in Scotland and will scrutinise the proposals carefully when they are announced. 'I would therefore urge the UK Government to ensure the Scottish government is fully appraised of the proposed changes as soon as possible.'

Welsh FM accused of doing ‘nothing' to protect pensioners from winter fuel cut
Welsh FM accused of doing ‘nothing' to protect pensioners from winter fuel cut

North Wales Chronicle

time35 minutes ago

  • North Wales Chronicle

Welsh FM accused of doing ‘nothing' to protect pensioners from winter fuel cut

Darren Millar, leader of the Welsh Conservatives, called for Eluned Morgan to apologise to the pensioners affected by the change last winter, arguing the Welsh Government should have stepped in to support those in need. Speaking during First Minister's Questions on Tuesday, Mr Millar said the cut had forced vulnerable people to choose between heating and eating. Baroness Morgan, leader of the Welsh Labour Government, said she was 'absolutely delighted' that the UK Government had reversed the cut for many. The payment, worth up to £300, will be restored to the vast majority of pensioners, with anyone with an income of under £35,000 a year now getting the payment automatically. The decision last July to restrict the winter fuel payment to the poorest pensioners was intended to save around £1.5 billion a year, with more than nine million people who would have previously been eligible losing out. Rachel Reeves, the Chancellor, announced the partial U-turn on Monday, following significant backlash from charities, opposition MPs and the Government's own backbenchers. Speaking in the Senedd, Mr Millar said: 'Yesterday we saw a screeching U-turn on the winter fuel allowance by Rachel Reeves, after considerable pressure from the Conservative Party. 'You will know that over half a million Welsh pensioners were deprived of their winter fuel payments last year, leaving some very vulnerable people with the unenvious choice of having to choose between heating and eating – it's an absolute disgrace. 'You are meant to stand up for Wales but what did you actually do in terms of this winter fuel allowance? You did absolutely nothing.' Mr Millar argued Baroness Morgan should have implemented a Welsh winter fuel payment or stood up to Sir Keir Starmer and demanded the payment be restored sooner. Baroness Morgan responded that she was 'absolutely delighted' that Sir Keir Starmer had listened to pensioners in Wales and across the country. 'I'm really pleased that because we have made representations to the Prime Minister on this issue that he has changed his mind and that will make a difference to hundreds of thousands of pensioners across Wales this winter, in a country where we do have more older people and housing which is more difficult to heat. 'I don't think that it's bad to listen to people and then to make sure that you respond to them.' Baroness Morgan had previously pushed back against the cut, having called for a 'rethink' in early May, saying it was something 'that comes up time and again'. At the time, the Government said there would 'not be a change to the Government's policy'. On Monday, Ms Reeves suggested that the 'stability we've brought back to the economy' meant the Government was able to change the eligibility threshold for winter fuel payments.

UK Government ‘betraying Wales' over rail funding, Plaid leader says
UK Government ‘betraying Wales' over rail funding, Plaid leader says

Rhyl Journal

time35 minutes ago

  • Rhyl Journal

UK Government ‘betraying Wales' over rail funding, Plaid leader says

Rhun ap Iorwerth, leader of Plaid, criticised the UK Labour Government for reclassifying the £6.6 billion Oxford to Cambridge line to an England and Wales project. The designation means Wales will not receive the additional rail funding it would get if branded an England-only project. Mr ap Iorwerth called on Eluned Morgan, the Welsh Labour First Minister, to condemn the reclassification. Baroness Morgan agreed Wales was not getting its fair share but said she was expecting to see positive changes in the UK Government's spending review on Wednesday. Mr ap Iorwerth's comments come following reports that revealed the project had originally been listed as England-only from 2020 to 2024. The Treasury told the BBC the classification was a 'publishing error' and insisted it was always considered an England and Wales development. Speaking First Minister's Questions in the Senedd on Tuesday, Mr ap Iorwerth said: 'We were getting our share until Labour actively moved the goalposts. 'Labour went out of its way to make sure Wales wouldn't get the money when the big spending really began.' He added: 'She should be joining me in condemning the UK Labour Government for betraying Wales. Will she?' Mr ap Iorwerth argued the reclassification was a 'new HS2 scandal' – a rail project that has been controversial in Wales. Despite none of the track being laid in the country, it was also designated an England and Wales project by the last UK Conservative government. Plaid has said this designation cost Wales £3.9 billion in funding. Responding to Mr Iorwerth, Baroness Morgan said: 'I've learned to expect nothing but constant negativity from the Plaid Cymru leader. 'I've been clear and I've been consistent when it comes to rail funding that we have not been getting our fair share of funding, in a position that the Tories left us with for over a decade. 'The difference between the Tories and the UK Labour Government is that they've recognised that injustice. 'I don't know what's going to be in the spending review, but the one thing I do know is that if Labour gave Wales a total land of milk and honey, Plaid Cymru would still find fault.' Baroness Morgan added they were 'expecting something positive from the spending review', but the Welsh government would have to keep on making the case for a fair share of funding. In January, the UK government admitted Welsh railways had been underfunded, with spending at 'low levels' in recent years. However, Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander did not announce any additional funding at the time.

DOWNLOAD THE APP

Get Started Now: Download the App

Ready to dive into the world of global news and events? Download our app today from your preferred app store and start exploring.
app-storeplay-store