
Milford Haven celebrates community heroes at Citizens' Awards 2025
By-election wins, surging polls and a reshaped Senedd system fuel Reform's rapid rise
REFORM UK is no longer a fringe force in Welsh politics. With polling surges, a local by-election victory, and a favourable new voting system set to reshape the Senedd in 2026, the party is rapidly gaining traction—and some believe traditional parties are failing to grasp the scale of its momentum.
On the rise: Reform in Wales
A May 2025 YouGov/ITV Wales poll placed Reform UK second in Wales with 25% of the projected vote—just behind Plaid Cymru on 30%, and well ahead of Labour on 18%. That number is a stark decline: Labour won a 36% regional vote in 2021, making its current standing half of its previous share.
Disillusionment among Labour voters is evident. Only 40% of those who backed Labour in the 2024 UK general election currently intend to do so for the next Senedd election, with substantial numbers shifting to Plaid Cymru (24%), Liberal Democrats (8%), Reform UK (5%), and Greens (4%).
Local Shifts and Breakthroughs
Michelle Beer has been elected as Carmarthenshire's first Reform councillor (Image: Reform)
On May 29, Reform achieved a breakthrough when Michelle Beer won the Lliedi ward by-election in Llanelli—becoming the party's first elected councillor in Carmarthenshire. In a ward long seen as Labour territory, the win signalled a dramatic shift.
Reform volunteers preparing election materials in Carmarthenshire (Image: Facebook)
That momentum continued days earlier in Pembrokeshire, when Scott Thorley, a former Reform candidate, was co-opted onto Haverfordwest Town Council. His appointment ignited local opposition from campaigners concerned about Reform's stance on the Anti-racist Wales Action Plan (AWAP).
The AWAP Dispute and Political Fallout
Scott Thorley's co-option onto Haverfordwest Town Council has sparked a petition (Image: Supplied)
Reform UK has openly opposed the AWAP, criticising its focus on identity-based policies, such as increased grants for ethnic minority student teachers and cultural accommodation in public spaces. Critics say these measures undermine meritocracy and divide communities.
After Thorley's co-option, political graffiti at Withybush Retail Park—featuring slogans like 'VOTE REFORM' and 'GOD SAVE US'—only intensified debate. Thorley swiftly condemned the graffiti, calling it 'vandalism, plain and simple,' and defended the party's intentions.
'As I have been invited to help on the anti‑racist action plan … I'm really confused by their comments. … Politics is about talking and helping people. … stop acting like stroppy teenagers.'
— Scott Thorley, Town Councillor, speaking to The Pembrokeshire Herald
Leadership turbulence and image strategy
Reform has also faced internal turbulence. Chairman Zia Yusuf, a practising Muslim, resigned on June 5, citing exhaustion and policy disagreements—particularly over a proposed burka ban—but reversed that decision just two days later. He returned to lead a new strategy unit focused on governance, fundraising, and outreach. His continued presence is seen as key to diversifying Reform's image and countering claims of intolerance.
Farage, culture wars, and language policy
Nigel Farage: Wants to scrap Welsh Language targets and identity-based policymaking
At the helm, Nigel Farage has declared Wales a top priority, urging voters to back 'real change'. He promised to scrap policies such as the 20mph default speed limit, the 'Nation of Sanctuary' scheme, and the Welsh Government's goal of one million Welsh speakers by 2050—labelled by Reform as cultural overreach.
While Farage offered limited detail on his opposition to the Welsh-language target, his position aligns with a broader opposition to identity-based policymaking.
Even Plaid warns: 'Reform could win'
The growing momentum behind Reform UK has not gone unnoticed by its political opponents. Speaking at the party's Spring conference in Llandudno, Plaid Cymru's Westminster leader Liz Saville Roberts warned party members that Reform could become the largest party in the Senedd if they are not taken seriously.
'If we—Plaid Cymru—do not provide solutions to Labour's failings, there is something worse waiting in the wings to take their place,' she said.
'If we do not take this threat seriously, they could become the biggest party in the Senedd—our national parliament. If that happens, it would be a disaster for Wales. This must galvanise us.'
Saville Roberts accused Reform of thriving on division and warned that the party would seek to privatise the NHS, strip away workers' rights, and undermine Welsh identity and the language.
Pushback from Welsh leaders
Welsh Labour's First Minister Mark Drakeford condemned the proposal to remove the language goal, asserting that the Welsh language 'belongs to us all' and should be defended from external political interference. Plaid Cymru MS Llŷr Gruffydd dismissed Farage's claims as 'empty soundbites' and accused him of 'railing against Welsh culture and identity' to advance his own agenda.
Labour's collapse in its historical heartlands is resonating at the grassroots. The Barn Cymru poll confirms their support is now the lowest since devolution began, under 20%. Meanwhile, local expressions of discontent are growing, with public services—especially in rural and post-industrial areas—seen as deteriorating, boosting calls for change.
A once-unshakeable Labour dominance is cracking. With Plaid Cymru and Reform UK capitalising on voter fatigue, policy stumbles, and identity politics backlash, Wales is entering a new era of volatility. As the Senedd moves to proportional representation, the question isn't whether Reform will take seats, but whether Labour has already ceded too much ground.
Hashtags

Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles


North Wales Live
24 minutes ago
- North Wales Live
Wales tipped to get £445m for rail projects in Spending Review this week
UK Government is set to announce £445m for rail projects in Wales. Chancellor Rachel Reeves is expected to make the announcement at the Spending Review on Wednesday. This comes after a week in which the UK Labour Government has been under attack from Plaid Cymru and other opponents over its decision to classify a new rail line between Oxford and Cambridge as a England and Wales project. This means that any money spent on it will trigger extra payments to Scotland and Northern Ireland so they can spend it on their transport systems, but not Wales. But North Wales Live understands that there will be a boost for rail in Wales at the review - aimed at driving growth. At least £445 million is set to be spent on rail projects in north and south Wales to enhance connectivity between cities, towns, and centres of advanced manufacturing. The money will be spent on fixing level crossings, building new stations, and upgrading existing lines, and is understood to be a combination of direct funding and money for the Welsh Government. Last month the Welsh Government announced a 15 point plan to improve rail services in North Wales but there were questions over how it would be funded. A Treasury source said: 'With this Government Wales will thrive, and the Chancellor has prioritised bringing forward a package that has the potential to be truly transformative.' A source said the strategic rail investment forms the cornerstone of a UK Government plan to address decades of underinvestment in critical infrastructure that has held back the Welsh economy. But a Plaid Cymru spokesperson on Transport attacked the UK Government for its decision to reclassify the £6.6bn East West Rail as an England and Wales project. Peredur Owen Griffiths MS said: 'The UK Labour Government's decision to reclassify the Oxford to Cambridge rail link as an England and Wales project is one of the most egregious examples of the Westminster government working against the best interests of the people of Wales. 'Despite the project being previously classified as an England project in the 2020, 2021, 2023 and 2024 editions of the UK Government's Statement of Funding Policies, meaning Wales received a consequential – Labour have moved the goal posts and is now choosing to deny Wales much needed investment. 'For all we know, this decision could result in Welsh rail projects losing out or not happen at all because of Wales being denied its share of funding."


ITV News
26 minutes ago
- ITV News
Rachel Reeves is set to announce at least £445 million for Welsh transport in spending review
Chancellor Rachel Reeves is expected to announce major Welsh transport upgrades in her Spending Review. At least £445 million is set to be spent on rail projects in north and south Wales to enhance connectivity between cities, towns, and centres. The money will be used to fix level crossings, build new stations and upgrade existing lines. It is understood to be a combination of direct funding and money for the Welsh Government. The Treasury said: 'With this Government Wales will thrive, and the Chancellor has prioritised bringing forward a package that has the potential to be truly transformative.' An unnamed Labour Party source has said that the "historic investment is down to the tireless work of the Welsh Secretary, Jo Stevens, who has delivered Labour's promise to right the chronic underfunding of Welsh rail by the Tories."The source added: "This investment is more than Wales would have had so far had HS2 been Barnettised. It will make a massive difference economically and politically." Talking on ITV Wales' Sharp End about the announcement, Peter Fox, a Welsh Conservative MS said: 'Its not enough, its no where near enough.' 'We are suppose to be grateful that we are getting the funding, this is not good news for Wales. We should be angry.'


NBC News
34 minutes ago
- NBC News
Trump mobilizes Marines to ‘protect' and ‘transport' ICE agents in Los Angeles
Anti-ICE protests continue in Los Angeles as the Trump administration mobilizes hundreds of Marines and National Guard members. NBC News Correspondents David Noriega, Vaughn Hillyard and Courtney Kube report on the Trump administration's handling of the 10, 2025