Forecasted foreign student drop catastrophic for US colleges: Study

The Hill

23-05-2025

Enrollment numbers at American colleges and universities will drop by 5 million by 2037 if international and immigrant students are not factored into the equation, which will dramatically affect the bottom line of institutions of higher education, a new study suggests.
The study, released by the National Foundation for American Policy, determined that the number of undergraduates would be about two-thirds of its current size if its calculations involving international students are correct.
Meanwhile, the number of graduate students would also plummet by 1.1 million students, which, coupled with undergraduate decreases, would be 'catastrophic' for many universities, an economist who researched the study determined.
Madeline Zavodny, a professor of economics at the University of North Florida, conducted the study this year before the Trump administration began targeting U.S. universities for diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) programs and other practices that do not align with its mission.
The administration has announced cuts of federal grant funding from institutions like Harvard and Columbia. On Thursday, President Trump blocked Harvard's ability to enroll international students for alleged violent and antisemitic practices.
Students, faculty and members of the Harvard University community rally, Thursday, April 17, 2025, in Cambridge, Mass. (AP Photo)
Meanwhile, international students at several universities have had their student visas revoked and have been taken into custody by federal immigration agents for a variety of allegations and earmarked for deportation.
Although universities saw a slight drop in their international and immigrant student population during Trump's first term in the White House, those declines represent a 'drop in the bucket' compared to what is expected to come, Zavodny told NewsNation.
'It's a very abrupt, shocking change,' she said.
Data released by Best Colleges indicated that during the 2024-25 academic year, 19.1 million students were enrolled in U.S. colleges, including 16 million undergraduates.
However, who makes up those numbers has shifted due to the ongoing decline in the U.S. birth rate and the decision by more American students not to attend college. Based on those trends, U.S.-born students between 18 and 22 attending American colleges could fall by as much as 15 percent between now and 2029, the study shows.
The bigger and unexpected surprise in declining college enrollments does not involve Americans.
The Institute of International Education reports that 880,000 international students were enrolled at American colleges and universities during the 2023-24 academic year. That total represents an increase of 230,000 students (36 percent) from 2010-11.
Meanwhile, second-generation immigrants, those students who were born in the U.S. to immigrant parents, rose from 15 percent to 24 percent over the same period.
Students march at Arizona State University in protest of ASU's chapter of College Republicans United-led event encouraging students to report 'their criminal classmates to ICE for deportations', Jan. 31, 2025, in Tempe, Ariz. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin, File)
In 2023, the largest percentage of international students came from India, which accounts for 30 percent of international students at American universities. Another 25 percent of international students come from China, far outpacing international students from Latin American, Middle Eastern or European countries.
Although the COVID-19 pandemic kept international students from coming to the U.S., numbers have recovered over the past few years, again fueling student enrollment numbers.
Because international and immigrant students tend to pay full tuition, fees and room and board, the dependence on those students not only to fill seats in classrooms but to allow universities to meet their bottom line financially has remained necessary, Zavodny said.
The Association of International Educators reported that international students studying at U.S. schools contributed $43.8 billion to the U.S. economy during the 2023-24 academic year and supported more than 378,000 jobs.
US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) Deputy Director for Policy Joseph Edlow (R), with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, administers the Oath of Allegiance to twelve candidates for US citizenship during a naturalization ceremony hosted by the USCIS at the State Department in 2020. (Photo by MANUEL BALCE CENETA/POOL/AFP via Getty Images)
Yet given the fire that both universities and international students have come under since Trump took office, Zavodny predicts that both enrollment and the financial outlook of U.S. colleges could take significant hits.
On Wednesday, Joseph Edlow, the Trump administration's pick to lead the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, testified before a congressional committee that he favors removing Optional Practical Training programs that assist international students in obtaining work authorizations once they finish their education.
Current OPT programs provide students with hope for a future of successful careers and residency in the U.S., Zavodny said, adding to the allure of coming to the U.S. on a student visa to study. Should these programs cease to exist, however, Zavodny believes the impact on schools' ability to thrive financially, or in the cases of smaller colleges, to survive, will almost certainly change.
In addition, Trump's pledge to end birthright citizenship and to completely close the U.S. southern border could also factor into expected enrollment drops at colleges and universities across the board as international students reconsider their educational future.
'It must be terrifying to think that you could spend this money (to attend college in the U.S.) and that you could be deported without your degree, you could be put in jail for a long time,' Zavodny said.
In addition to the expected base enrollment decreases, the study also found that if international students were no longer coming to the U.S., total undergraduate student enrollment would fall by 2 percent over the next 12 years. Under the same scenario, the graduate-level student population would drop 11 percent.
Those figures will increase by another 1 or 2 percent if the immigrant inflow were to stop as Trump continues to completely seal the U.S. southern border. Additionally, if immigrants currently living in the U.S left the country, the undergraduate student population would fall by another 6.6%, and the graduate-level student population could fall by 12 percent, the study found.
If U.S.-born students who are the children of immigrants elected not to attend an American institution, undergraduate student levels would see a 23 percent drop and graduate-level student populations would fall by 16 percent by 2037.
With the decline in international students expected to last for more than a decade and beyond when Trump leaves office, Zavodny said colleges and universities may need to adjust their enrollment practices and admit students they may not have even a decade ago.
If they do not, based on current trends and the time it may take for international student populations to rebound, the long-term impact for these institutions could be bleak, Zavodny said.
'It's going to be big and it's going to be adverse for a whole lot of schools,' she added.