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Writing was on the wall for loss-making Jetstar Asia, say analysts

Writing was on the wall for loss-making Jetstar Asia, say analysts

Straits Timesa day ago

Faced with rising costs and intense competition as it tried to claw its way back post-pandemic, the airline's eventual closure was unfortunate but unsurprising. ST PHOTO: CHONG JUN LIANG
Writing was on the wall for loss-making Jetstar Asia, say analysts
SINGAPORE – Even before the sudden announcement on June 11 that Jetstar Asia would cease operations on July 31 after more than 20 years of flying, the writing was on the wall for the low-cost airline.
The Singapore-based carrier was already struggling to make consistent profits before Covid-19 brought aviation to a standstill, and it was in the black for only six years in all the time it had been in operation.
Faced with rising costs and intense competition as it tried to claw its way back post-pandemic, the airline's eventual closure was unfortunate but unsurprising, industry analysts told The Straits Times.
'The airline never got its mojo back,' said Professor Alan Tan, who specialises in aviation law and politics at the National University of Singapore (NUS).
While rivals like Singapore Airlines' budget arm Scoot ramped up flights and destinations, Jetstar Asia made a slow recovery.
The airline today operates a fleet of 13 aircraft, down from 18 before the pandemic. It also does not fly to India and only has a single flight to China - both major aviation markets , Prof Tan noted.
'The problem of Jetstar Asia's lack of scale is all too apparent,' he said.
Mr Alan Lim, a director at Alton Aviation Consultancy, noted that Jetstar Asia's capacity and traffic in 2024 was nearly half of the levels recorded before the pandemic.
About 4 million passengers flew in or out of Singapore on the airline in 2019; in 2024, this figure fell to about 2.3 million.
Analysts also said the airline's move to Changi Airport Terminal 1 to Terminal 4 in March 2023, which Jetstar Asia had initially resisted, did not help its cause.
'That probably exacerbated the issues that they already faced to begin with, as they lost the seamless connectivity that they had with parent airline Qantas,' said Mr Shukor Yusof, founder of aviation consultancy Endau Analytics.
'Covid-19 changed everything, and the suffering became more acute,' he added.
With an increasingly crowded low-cost carrier market in Asia creating price pressure on established carriers, Mr Linus Benjamin Bauer, founder and managing director of aviation consultancy BAA & Partners, said Jetstar Asia 'lacked the scale, local dominance, and margin buffers of stronger low-cost carriers like Scoot or AirAsia'.
Assistant Professor Awad Khireldin, who teaches aviation management at the Singapore Institute of Technology (SIT), said Jetstar Asia's closure seemed to be a calculated move, with Qantas focusing on more profitable ventures elsewhere.
Rising costs
Qantas and Jetstar Asia had cited 'unsustainable' costs as a major factor behind the latter's closure, as it impacted the airline's ability to offer low fares - a key part of its business model.
At a briefing on June 11, Jetstar Group chief executive Stephanie Tully said cost increases have been seen across the 'whole ecosystem', Bloomberg reported. 'The airport fees are a part of that. That has had an impact on the business,' she told reporters.
Airline and passenger fees at Changi Airport, where Jetstar Asia is based, were hiked in April, and they will be raised further until 2030 to fund a S$3 billion upgrade of the airport's existing terminals.
However, in response to Bloomberg's report, airport operator Changi Airport Group (CAG) said these airport charges are applied equally to all carriers and constitute a small component of airlines' total operating cost.
Despite the fee hikes, CAG said it has been working proactively with airlines including Jetstar Asia to enhance productivity and cost-efficiency.
The operator also pointed to joint marketing efforts with Jetstar Asia over the years to stimulate demand and said it has worked with the carrier to identify new route opportunities.
But some analysts such as SIT's Prof Awad said Jetstar Asia's complaints about rising costs are valid.
He noted that costs in S ingapore - from fuel to airport handling and security - have risen sharply and have doubled in some cases.
'Given the scale of these hikes, other airlines at Changi Airport could be affected too. This raises valid questions about whether Changi Airport should reconsider its current fee structure,' he added.
Mr Mayur Patel, head of Asia at aviation data consultancy OAG Aviation, noted that AirAsia had also cited similar issues of high landing fees and passenger charges as the reason for cutting capacity on some of its routes out of Singapore, for instance to Bangkok and Phuket.
Effects on Changi?
Analysts said Jetstar Asia's exit will leave a void at Changi Airport, particularly at T4, where it is the anchor operator.
This means a reshuffling of carriers within the airport could be on the cards, and other low-cost or regional carriers could potentially be moved in to ensure T4 remains operationally viable.
Jetstar Asia's closure will also dent Changi Airport's connectivity, at a time when the air hub is looking to grow its number of air links, from more 170 cities today to more than 200 in the mid-2030s.
This is especially given the amount of transit traffic that Jetstar Asia facilitates, via its interline and codeshare agreements with more than 40 carriers, including Emirates and KLM.
Noting that Jetstar Asia's routes today make up 5 per cent of the flights at Changi Airport, Mr Mayur said replacing this will take time, especially in the current environment where planes and crew are hard to come by.
But he believes this also presents an opportunity for other carriers to expand and take over Jetstar Asia's landing and take-off slots, especially those during morning and evening peak hours, which are coveted and hard to secure.
Prof Awad had a similar view, noting that Scoot, and foreign budget carriers like AirAsia and Vietjet, could step in.
CAG said the take-off and landing slots that are returned by Jetstar Asia will go back to the pool for reallocation.
'The slots will be allocated to support Singapore air hub's connectivity, while taking into account Changi Airport's capacity considerations, as well as in accordance with the Worldwide Airport Slot Guidelines,' it added.
With Jetstar Asia's closure, Singapore Airlines Group's two carriers will be the only ones left that are based in the city-state.
But analysts generally agreed that there is sufficient competition from foreign airlines to keep the national carrier on its toes.
Still, NUS' Prof Tan said there will likely be a net reduction in competition, which will affect pricing and service frequency.
Prof Awad said the absence of a third homegrown carrier also reduces market diversity , which may prompt the Civil Aviation Authority of Singapore to consider granting a new airline licence, if a credible applicant emerges.
The future of low-cost carriers
The International Air Transport Association's Sheldon Hee said Jetstar Asia's closure highlights the challenging nature of the airline industry.
The regional vice-president for Asia-Pacific at the global trade body representing 350 airlines noted that the net profit margin for Asia-Pacific carriers is expected to be 1.9 per cent in 2025 - a 'very thin buffer', he added.
'With margins this low, any cost increase can impact an airline's viability,' Mr Hee added.
Mr Bauer expects more market exits or strategic retrenchments, especially in fragmented, over-served low-cost markets like South-east Asia. 'Carriers without scale, strong backing, or network differentiation are most at risk,' he said.
But Jetstar Asia's exit does not mean that Singapore is not a viable market for budget airlines, said Alton Aviation's Mr Lim. While Singapore is a high-cost market, there is a strong level of demand here compared to elsewhere in the region, he noted.
NUS' Prof Tan agreed that there is still demand for budget flights. He added: 'I am confident that the leading foreign low cost-carriers like AirAsia, Cebu Pacific and VietJet will continue their operations here, but increasing costs may mean that cheap fares on some routes can no longer be taken for granted.'
Kok Yufeng is a transport correspondent at The Straits Times.
Vanessa Paige Chelvan is a correspondent at The Straits Times. She writes about all things transport and pens the occasional commentary.
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[SINGAPORE] Nicolas Tam's journey as a Singaporean chef is an all-too-familiar tale, but with a storybook ending. Young, ambitious and full of creative energy, he wanted to open his own restaurant but could find no investor willing to put money on a local talent. Eventually, one took a gamble and helped him open his restaurant, Willow, in 2022. It paid off. By 2023, Willow had a Michelin star. Nicolas Tam of one-Michelin-starred Willow. PHOTO: WILLOW While he joins other Michelin star compatriots such as Han Li Guang, Malcolm Lee and Jason Tan, Tam is a rare success in a dining scene where Singapore-born chefs have barely made a dent despite the city's international status as a culinary destination. Unlike, say, Bangkok, Tokyo and Seoul – thriving gourmet hubs boasting legions of home-grown chefs lauded for their work with local ingredients and heritage – Singapore is largely dominated by foreign-born chefs, who have been credited with raising the bar and adding vibrancy to the local dining scene. Whether this puts local talent at a disadvantage is a topic for debate. Among other things, Singaporean chefs struggle with identity issues, and winning over diners or investors who are more enamoured of their 'imported' counterparts. As one pundit quips: 'When a Japanese man touches a slice of fish with his bare hands, it becomes gold. But when the hawker doesn't wear a mask, the diners complain to SFA (Singapore Food Agency).' 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Sign Up Sign Up Investing in local talent That investors are skittish about putting money on local talent goes without saying. Tam notes how he had approached two F&B groups with his idea for Willow, but did not hear from one and was rejected by the other for being too young. His luck changed when he met Lim Kian Chun, then in the early days of Ebb & Flow Group, but even he 'had doubts about me, being local and unproven'. After much convincing, Lim invested a modest amount, and the rest is history. Wee Teng Wen, the founder of The Lo & Behold Group who is known for his support of local talent, observes that 'it's not always a level playing field' when it comes to restaurant investment. 'For a long time, chefs with international experience or big-name mentors tend to get more attention, as larger hospitality players tend to rally around something familiar or already validated. 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It is 'very hard to nail down, but at the same time, there's a lot of content out there, and that's what helps to keep Labyrinth unique'. He notes that skills-wise, Singaporean chefs score highly, thanks to the many Michelin-starred restaurants that give them the exposure and the training. What they lack is Asian cooking skills, which Han gripes is missing from culinary schools – which still emphasise Western techniques. ' It seems like there's something about Singaporean culture that is unsure how to value things if there isn't some foreign pedigree burnishing its credibility or desirability. ' — Law Jia-Jun, chef-owner of Province 'I had two young chefs who quit after three months because they were trained in French cooking and couldn't get used to using a wok. So they wanted to return to their comfort zone,' he says. Which begs the question: Who is more Singaporean? 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Plus, there are platforms for local chefs to shine, says Nicola Lee, the South-east Asia academy chair for the World's 50 Best Restaurants guide as well as its Asian equivalent. While her role pertains to the voting for the guides, she is a staunch supporter of local talent. ' Investors today are increasingly interested in strong, distinctive chef-driven narratives, regardless of nationality. What matters is the authenticity of the story and the quality of execution. ' — Veteran chef Ace Tan Besides Han Li Guang and Jason Tan, pastry chefs such as Cheryl Koh of Tarte and Louisa Lim of Odette have been recognised among the 50 Best recipients, along with Janice Wong. ITE's Ian Goh was also the 2022 winner of the San Pellegrino Young Chef Academy for Asia. Not to mention the Singaporean chefs making waves overseas include Kenneth Foong of Noma (Denmark), Mathew Leong of Re-Naa (Norway), and Jimmy Lim of JL Studio (Taiwan). 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[SINGAPORE] Nicolas Tam's journey as a Singaporean chef is an all-too-familiar tale, but with a storybook ending. Young, ambitious and full of creative energy, he wanted to open his own restaurant but could find no investor willing to put money on a local talent. Eventually, one took a gamble and helped him open his restaurant, Willow, in 2022. It paid off. By 2023, Willow had a Michelin star. Nicolas Tam of one-Michelin-starred Willow. PHOTO: WILLOW While he joins other Michelin star compatriots such as Han Li Guang, Malcolm Lee and Jason Tan, Tam is a rare success in a dining scene where Singapore-born chefs have barely made a dent despite the city's international status as a culinary destination. Unlike, say, Bangkok, Tokyo and Seoul – thriving gourmet hubs boasting legions of home-grown chefs lauded for their work with local ingredients and heritage – Singapore is largely dominated by foreign-born chefs, who have been credited with raising the bar and adding vibrancy to the local dining scene. Whether this puts local talent at a disadvantage is a topic for debate. Among other things, Singaporean chefs struggle with identity issues, and winning over diners or investors who are more enamoured of their 'imported' counterparts. As one pundit quips: 'When a Japanese man touches a slice of fish with his bare hands, it becomes gold. But when the hawker doesn't wear a mask, the diners complain to SFA (Singapore Food Agency).' At the same time, a beleaguered food and beverage (F&B) industry – marked by restaurant closures, chefs dropping out to work in other fields or move into private dining, and the high costs of running a restaurant – further reduces the talent pool, making it even harder for existing and new chefs to thrive. ' Local chefs sometimes have to work harder to prove their ideas are worth backing, especially if they're trying to do something that doesn't fit neatly into existing categories. ' — Wee Teng Wen, founder of The Lo & Behold Group However, rewards await those who persevere, as in the case of Tam, who prides himself on being 'one of the few true-blue Singaporean chefs who worked from the bottom to where I am, in my own home country and in spite of all challenges'. A NEWSLETTER FOR YOU Friday, 2 pm Lifestyle Our picks of the latest dining, travel and leisure options to treat yourself. Sign Up Sign Up Investing in local talent That investors are skittish about putting money on local talent goes without saying. Tam notes how he had approached two F&B groups with his idea for Willow, but did not hear from one and was rejected by the other for being too young. His luck changed when he met Lim Kian Chun, then in the early days of Ebb & Flow Group, but even he 'had doubts about me, being local and unproven'. After much convincing, Lim invested a modest amount, and the rest is history. Wee Teng Wen, the founder of The Lo & Behold Group who is known for his support of local talent, observes that 'it's not always a level playing field' when it comes to restaurant investment. 'For a long time, chefs with international experience or big-name mentors tend to get more attention, as larger hospitality players tend to rally around something familiar or already validated. Local chefs sometimes have to work harder to prove their ideas are worth backing, especially if they're trying to do something that doesn't fit neatly into existing categories.' Law Jia-Jun, chef-owner of Province. PHOTO: PROVINCE 'There is pressure to prove that my food can be seen as comparable or equal to that of non-Singaporeans, especially those who are known at home and abroad,' says Law Jia-Jun, who opened his restaurant, Province, in 2023. 'Like it or not, platforms like the Michelin guide shape public and investor perception, and most of the Michelin restaurants here are helmed by foreign chefs.' So far, no Singaporean chef-fronted restaurant holds more than one star, and this feeds 'a certain perception about who is 'worthy' of recognition'. Province serves progressive Singaporean cuisine. PHOTO: PROVINCE He recalls a recent conversation with another chef who had plans to open an izakaya. 'Their investors felt that it would be easier to market the concept if it were fronted by a Japanese chef. That struck a chord with me, because it seems like there's something about Singaporean culture that is unsure how to value things if there isn't some foreign pedigree burnishing its credibility or desirability.' Defining a Singaporean chef For veteran chef Han Li Guang of the one-Michelin-starred Labyrinth, it has been a long journey of 11 years to evolve as a Singaporean chef. Even today, there is still a stigma about paying a premium for what locals see as 'mod-Sin', or elevated hawker food. 'While Singaporeans are becoming more receptive to modern ways of interpreting heritage food, it's not to the extent of Seoul or Bangkok, where the population is much bigger,' says Han. Also, Thai and Korean cuisines have longer histories as well as more defined characteristics and flavours, unlike Singapore cuisine which is 'all over the place'. It is 'very hard to nail down, but at the same time, there's a lot of content out there, and that's what helps to keep Labyrinth unique'. He notes that skills-wise, Singaporean chefs score highly, thanks to the many Michelin-starred restaurants that give them the exposure and the training. What they lack is Asian cooking skills, which Han gripes is missing from culinary schools – which still emphasise Western techniques. ' It seems like there's something about Singaporean culture that is unsure how to value things if there isn't some foreign pedigree burnishing its credibility or desirability. ' — Law Jia-Jun, chef-owner of Province 'I had two young chefs who quit after three months because they were trained in French cooking and couldn't get used to using a wok. So they wanted to return to their comfort zone,' he says. Which begs the question: Who is more Singaporean? One who is inspired by their roots, or one who rises to the top ranks of highly acclaimed Michelin-starred restaurants? The two are not necessarily mutually exclusive, says Law, who feels he would consider himself a Singaporean chef even if he had chosen to stay in a Western kitchen instead of striking out on his own with Province. He acknowledges he has chosen a more 'difficult' path because 'there is no clear blueprint for what we're trying to do. But that's also our mission – to discover what Singaporean cuisine is and develop an approach to cooking at a fine-dining level that is more local and regional'. Ng Guo Lun, head chef of Jaan by Kirk Westaway. PHOTO: JAAN For Ng Guo Lun, his achievement comes from making his way up from kitchen assistant at Willin Low's Wild Rocket after national service, to head chef at the two-Michelin-starred Jaan by Kirk Westaway, working next to its eponymous chef-owner. While other chefs have helped to shift mindsets about local food, 'I've chosen a different path, but not because I don't believe in Singaporean cuisine'. 'This is what I want at this point in my career, which is to excel in the kitchen while expressing my own style in other ways,' he adds. Winning the hearts of Singaporean diners While progress is still slow, 'there's a growing appreciation for chefs who are rooted here and have something original to say about Singaporean food', says Lo & Behold's Wee. A case in point would be the group's newest restaurant, Belimbing, helmed by 'new-gen' chef Marcus Leow. Marcus Leow of Belimbing. PHOTO: BELIMBING 'The response has been a lot better than expected,' says Leow, whose cuisine explores local recipes and South-east Asian ingredients. While he agrees that there is pressure on Singaporean chefs to reinterpret local cuisine, 'it gives me stronger motivation to get better at what I do'. Grilled firefly squid at Belimbing. PHOTO: BELIMBING Perhaps one of the biggest success stories would be Mustard Seed, the counter-only, perennially booked-out restaurant run by Gan Ming Kiat. The chef, who has won hearts with his unique version of Singaporean food with a Japanese accent, was recently joined by fellow local chef Desmond Shen – well-known for his innovative cooking style. Gan Ming Kiat of Mustard Seed. PHOTO: KERRY CHEAH 'Running a business with honesty and sincerity goes a long way,' says Gan of his success from Day One. 'When we started, there weren't many modern Singaporean tasting menu-style restaurants around, so we were able to start strong and build on that momentum.' Candied orange kuih bingka at Mustard Seed. PHOTO: KERRY CHEAH Schooled in kaiseki and Peranakan cuisine, he credits his training in Asian rather than Western kitchens for creating a cuisine that 'hits the sweet spot of being tasty and creative enough without being too intellectual'. 'Singaporeans relate to this better.' Market realities and carving out a niche While Gan had a first-mover advantage, 'to come out and do something of your own now is definitely much harder than when I first started out', he says. 'You're dealing with higher costs, increased diner expectations, a highly competitive dining scene, and also a dismal post-Covid climate. Dining out is now a lower priority.' MJ Teoh of the heritage-inspired Native got a full reality check when the restaurant closed down after three years, even though the original cocktail bar remains. One of the few female chefs in Singapore, Teoh laments that 'one of the mistakes we made was not to differentiate ourselves from the bar, because people thought we just did bar snacks and didn't bother to give us a try'. MJ Teoh, former head chef of Native. PHOTO: MJ TEOH She adds: 'We weren't making enough money and the rent was way too high. Amoy Street is very competitive and in the last few years, we noticed people are just not spending as much. A lot of us in the industry felt the shift – sales were down even in bars that were thriving.' MJ Teoh's cooking is inspired by her heritage. PHOTO: MJ TEOH Teoh is part of a cohort of young chefs who are trying to find their way in this uncertain climate, even going through a period of soul-searching. She was so burnt out, she says, that she stopped working for a few months. Recently, she started giving pasta-making lessons and does private dining in client's homes. The plan is to start a dining space in her own home and while she is not ruling out running a restaurant again with a new investor, she questions if it is a practical move in the current climate. Growing the talent pool While market uncertainty has led to attrition as chefs leave the industry completely to embark on totally different careers, the numbers enrolling in culinary schools have grown, says Ian Goh, a culinary arts lecturer at the Institute of Technical Education (ITE). Ian Goh, culinary arts lecturer at ITE. PHOTO: IAN GOH 'Cohort-wise, we've been seeing a consistent rise in the number of students enrolling in our culinary programmes,' he says. 'Over the past few years, there's been a noticeable shift where more (young people) are interested in building long-term careers in F&B.' The change was apparent after Covid-19, when home-based businesses sprouted up. That taste of entrepreneurship, Goh says, spurred their interest in making a career of it. The challenge, he adds, is matching chefs' passion with the realities of the industry – namely 'long hours, high pressure, and sometimes, toxic work environments'. Despite more work-life balance in some progressive kitchens, 'the industry still has a long way to go'. But he is also seeing how the younger generation is 'redefining what it means to be a culinary professional', going beyond conventional cooking to explore 'food styling, research and development, sustainable food systems, entrepreneurship and even food history'. Plus, there are platforms for local chefs to shine, says Nicola Lee, the South-east Asia academy chair for the World's 50 Best Restaurants guide as well as its Asian equivalent. While her role pertains to the voting for the guides, she is a staunch supporter of local talent. ' Investors today are increasingly interested in strong, distinctive chef-driven narratives, regardless of nationality. What matters is the authenticity of the story and the quality of execution. ' — Veteran chef Ace Tan Besides Han Li Guang and Jason Tan, pastry chefs such as Cheryl Koh of Tarte and Louisa Lim of Odette have been recognised among the 50 Best recipients, along with Janice Wong. ITE's Ian Goh was also the 2022 winner of the San Pellegrino Young Chef Academy for Asia. Not to mention the Singaporean chefs making waves overseas include Kenneth Foong of Noma (Denmark), Mathew Leong of Re-Naa (Norway), and Jimmy Lim of JL Studio (Taiwan). The way ahead 'We need to show that cooking local food, especially at a higher level, is a viable and rewarding career path,' says Wee of Lo & Behold. 'Young chefs often gravitate towards other cuisines... because of what they're exposed to or (because) certain cuisines are more globally recognised, and that makes hiring for local restaurants an even bigger challenge.' He adds: 'To shift that mindset, we need to spotlight chefs doing meaningful work with local food and show that there's creativity, depth, and a future in it. Visibility helps, but it needs to be matched by structural change. That includes reforming culinary school curriculums so local cuisine is taught with the same rigour as European cooking. 'We also need to shift the conversation from preservation to innovation, and cultivate an audience that's curious, open, and willing to value new expressions of Singaporean food.' For veteran chef Ace Tan, who launched his Chinese-inspired restaurant Asu last year, the key is not to pigeonhole the definition of a 'Singaporean restaurant'. 'It's more accurate to consider it as a Singaporean chef presenting their interpretation of Asian, cross-cultural cuisine. The landscape has evolved significantly since I started this path in 2015 (with the short-lived Restaurant Ards) – there's now a growing appetite and appreciation for contemporary Asian concepts across East Asia,' he says. 'Investors today are increasingly interested in strong, distinctive chef-driven narratives, regardless of nationality. What matters is the authenticity of the story and the quality of execution.'

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