Parties' selection of candidates for Presidential election becoming a late late show

Irish Times

26-05-2025

By the end of May 1990, Mary Robinson had already been endorsed as the formal Labour and Workers' Party candidate for the presidential election in November of that year.
By contrast, coming into the last week of May 2025, just two independent candidates have declared they will seek to contest this year's November election: the Donegal businessman Peter Casey and the MMA fighter Conor McGregor.
While many names have been bandied around, political parties are only entering the foothills of their preparations. There has been a lot of shadowboxing and speculation, but little real movement so farto begin the process of choosing preferred candidates.
The pattern of when presidential candidates are announced is not consistent. In 1997, the identities of all six candidates were not revealed until late September. When Robinson stood in 1990, the Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael candidates, Brian Lenihan and Austin Currie, were not put forward until mid-September.
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In 2011, the last presidential election where an incumbent wasn't a candidate, most of the runners declared early. David Norris, the early favourite, announced his candidacy that January. The eventual winner, Michael D Higgins, was officially endorsed by Labour in June; Fine Gael's Gay Mitchell in July. By then, two Independent candidates, Mary Davis and Seán Gallagher, had also declared.
Bertie Ahern and former minister Mary Hanafin have been mentioned, but colleagues are concerned about their association with the era of economic collapse
What is evident this year is that the bigger parties are holding back. It looks very much like it could be late summer or September when they, and a combination of parties on the left, finalise their candidates.
Part of the waiting game is strategic. 'If we are running a candidate, we should not aim to have everything ready to go until early September,' says a senior Fianna Fáil source.
The other reason for tarrying is intrinsic to what the Fianna Fáiler has just said. The question the party has to put to itself is whether or not it runs a candidate at all. The last time there was an official Fianna Fáil candidate was 28 years ago in 1997, when Mary McAleese was its candidate.
Sinn Féin faces the same quandary for different reasons. It had a dismal presidential election campaign in 2018, with its candidate Liadh Ní Riada receiving only 6.4 per cent of the vote, well below her party's support levels.
Richard Moore is a political communications adviser with direct experience of two presidential campaigns, those of Gay Mitchell in 2011 and Gavin Duffy in 2018. He says the first crucial decision for all the parties is whether they will even go to the starting line.
'Will the party be willing to run a candidate and burn €500,000 on a campaign? There's a risk there unless they are satisfied that their candidate will outperform the party's support (levels),' he says.
At this moment, only one party, Fine Gael, is certain to run its own candidate. Its executive council said this week that it will 'decide in the coming weeks the timeline and process for the selection of a Fine Gael candidate for the forthcoming presidential election'.
The names of two prominent party members – Mairéad McGuinness and Seán Kelly – are frequently mentioned. Party grandee Heather Humphreys this week announced she will not put her name forward. The probable candidate is the former EU Commissioner McGuinness, who also sought a nomination in 2011.
And what of Fianna Fáil? When you speak to its TDs, there are mixed views. Some point to the lack of an obvious candidate. 'I don't think there is any benefit in us contesting the election,' says one Minister of State bluntly.
Theirs is a minority view, however. Another TD argued that Fianna Fáil, as the largest party, should run a candidate, but that finding one will be difficult.
There are many nuances. The electorate can switch very quickly to another candidate if you say something that is controversial or make a mistake
Former taoiseach Bertie Ahern and former minister Mary Hanafin have been mentioned, but colleagues are concerned about their association with the era of economic collapse, which caused huge reputational damage to the party. Either could face uncomfortable questioning during a campaign that is often fractious and quite personalised.
Former ceann comhairle Seán Ó Fearghaíl, who is respected across party lines, has been mentioned but he quickly dismissed the prospect. 'Not in a million years, not under any circumstances,' he said. 'It's for not me. It's not where I want to be.'
So where should Fianna Fáil go? Ó Fearghaíl expresses a view that is shared by many of his colleagues: 'I do think the party should run a candidate, but it may need to look outside the fold to find somebody.'
That somebody would not be the Fine Gael candidate, whoever emerges. 'We can't ask our supporters to vote for Fine Gael,' said a Dublin Fianna Fáil TD. 'I just don't see many of them voting that way in the first instance.'
But as yet, no high-profile person has yet been identified or targeted by the party.
An outside candidate is the route down which Sinn Féin might ultimately go. It has been seeking internal feedback this month, with a letter sent to the membership asking them to become involved in a process that would 'help inform the leadership on the proposed route forward in relation to the upcoming Presidential Election'.
Earlier this year, the party's MP for North Belfast, John Finucane, was mentioned as a possibility, but the party seems to have cooled on that idea.
Sinn Féin has been involved in talks with the Social Democrats, Labour, People Before Profit and the Green Party on exploring a possible consensus left-wing candidate. Several names have been mentioned: Senator Frances Black, SDLP leader Claire Hanna and Independent TD Catherine Connolly.
In mid-May, Dr Mike Ryan, former deputy director of the World Health Organisation, became the latest well-known figure to be targeted by political parties for a potential presidential run. It is understood he has not been approached and has not considered the question as he is taking some time off.
Another potential big-beast candidate, Independent Senator Michael McDowell, has ruled himself out. The former minister for justice told The Irish Times: 'I'm not going to run.'
He said he has come to the conclusion that the Upper House is the place where he could most usefully serve.
For Moore, the election is never about parties, or policies, or issues, it's about the qualities that mark out the best candidate.
'The tribal loyalty towards parties is well and truly shot,' he says. 'My own view is that it ended with Brian Lenihan in 1990 (when the Fianna Fáil candidate was caught out in a lie that put paid to his campaign, over his attempt to persuade president Patrick Hillery not to dissolve the Dáil back in 1982).
'The Irish electorate is sophisticated and understands politics. They want somebody as President who will be presentable and not let the country down.
'The candidate has to be authentic and genuine and be able to show their qualities in the heat of the battle and under fierce media scrutiny.'
Will the party be willing to run a candidate and burn €500,000 on a campaign? There's a risk there unless they are satisfied that their candidate will outperform the party's support
There are a litany of candidates who started off as favourites and became also-rans during the course of bruising and intrusive campaigns: Brian Lenihan, Adi Roche, Mary Davis, David Norris and Seán Gallagher.
'On the face of it, it looks like a simple election,' adds Moore. 'There are many nuances. The electorate can switch very quickly to another candidate if you say something that is controversial or make a mistake.
'It's a much more difficult election than a general election in my view.'
There is no hard and fast rule on the optimum time to declare. Several interviewees remarked that the name of the next President has not even entered the public domain yet. For observers like Moore, however, that should take place sooner rather than later.
'In September, you run the risk of leaving it too late unless you have a superstar. Sure, the campaign will be short and sharp for all candidates, but you need to have a profile established before that,' he says.