How a Democrat turned independent could shake up a key governor's race
Good morning, Early Birds. Congrats to the formidable Coco Gauff — and to Spike Lee, who somehow attends every sporting event. Send tips to earlytips@washpost.com. Thanks for waking up with us.
In today's edition … The Detroit mayor looks to go statewide … A ski manufacturer jumps into a run for Congress … Trump's price promises take center stage in a new digital ad campaign … but first …
President Donald Trump bypassed California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) this weekend by ordering the deployment of 2,000 California National Guard troops to quell protests against immigration raids in the Los Angeles area. The move was swiftly condemned by political leaders in the state and across the country and is the latest sign of how Trump plans to push the envelope on nearly every power afforded to the presidency.
Justin Jouvenal and Alex Horton reported that Trump 'invoked a section of the Armed Forces Act that allows the president to bypass a governor's authority over the National Guard and call those troops into federal service when he considers it necessary to repel an invasion or suppress a rebellion.' Newsom 'formally requested' that the Trump administration return the troops to the governor's command Sunday, labeling its moves 'the acts of a dictator, not a President.' Newsom also said he would file a lawsuit Monday against the Trump administration over the deployment, which he called 'immoral' and 'unconstitutional.'
This will probably be the story of the week, with Trump's use of this power increasing the likelihood that he does it again in other cities and jurisdictions. 'We're going to have troops everywhere,' Trump said Sunday when asked about sending soldiers to California. Pressed on 'what's the bar for sending in the Marines,' Trump said, 'The bar is what I think it is.'
Michigan's gubernatorial election next year was always going to be one of the most closely watched contests in the nation.
And that was before the popular mayor of Detroit, a former Democrat, launched an independent bid.
'I think about the 2016 convention and the whole thing was Love Trumps Hate. And you look at what the Democratic Party has become, it has become a party of intolerance,' said Mike Duggan, the Detroit mayor who left his party late last year to announce a third-party bid. 'If you don't agree with the exact doctrine, you know, you are vilified, you are left out. And I think it has just been turning off more and more Americans, more and more Democrats.'
Duggan added that Republicans 'of course have a lot of anger,' too. So it 'felt like a time in this country where people might want a different choice.'
Duggan, who was first elected in 2013, has long been seen as a likely candidate for governor. But with a crowded Democratic primary — including Jocelyn Benson, Michigan's secretary of state, and Garlin Gilchrist, the state's lieutenant governor — Duggan opted for a third path, leading Democrats to accuse him of political expediency. (U.S. Rep. John James and Michigan Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt are the leading Republicans in the contest.)
No matter his reasons, Duggan could be a threat to shake up the race.
'Right now,' Duggan told us, 'my goal is 20 percent from the Democratic side, 20 percent from the Republican side, and win with 40 percent of the vote.'
Duggan's mayoral tenure has been defined by a rebirth of Detroit, with a focus on bringing in new jobs, greening the economy and reversing a decades-long population trend. He told us he 'would have been supportive' of Trump's tariff plan 'if it were done right' by targeting manufacturing jobs that fled to Mexico and China, but that the 'Canada tariffs made no sense.' 'Trump has zeroed in on an issue that needs to be addressed,' he said, but the president went too far in his plan. Duggan was a vocal surrogate for the Joe Biden and Kamala Harris presidential campaigns in 2024, regularly touting the Democratic duo for bringing 'Detroit's recovery back 10 years ahead of time' and even posting weeks before he left the party that 'KAMALA HARRIS is the LEADER we need to build on the progress we've made!'
Duggan says he thought at the time that Harris was a 'better choice' and that he still believes it. But he now says he campaigned for her while harboring serious doubts about her and the state of his former party.
Democrats are taking note of his campaign. Last month, the Democratic Governors Association timed the release of a digital ad accusing Duggan of corruption to the mayor's keynote speech at the Mackinac Policy Conference. The ad centers on a story from the Detroit News tying the mayor with 'events that outed a confidential FBI informant.'
The attack raised eyebrows in Michigan, signaling that his former party is at least mildly concerned about what he could mean to the contest. Duggan hit back at the conference, calling his former party 'predictable.'
'Mike Duggan is already cracking under pressure and lashing out on the campaign trail,' said Sam Newton, a spokesperson for the DGA. 'The DGA beat attention-grabbing third-party candidates in Kansas in 2018 and Oregon in 2022 — and we're confident that we'll do it again in Michigan this cycle.'
A spokesperson for the Republican Governors Association declined to comment on Duggan's campaign.
Duggan told us he 'couldn't stop laughing' when he first saw the ad. 'It does seem kind of early,' he said. 'They only know one play. This is like the old Michigan football teams that ran the ball up the middle all the time. They only know one thing.'
Polls show the mayor pulling support from Democrats and Republicans, something Duggan and his team regularly bring up. It's early, however, and not only has neither party selected a nominee, but the tens of millions of dollars that will be spent on this race have yet to harden voters' partisan preferences.
Duggan has a tall hill to climb, both because he is, in his own words, basically unknown by people outside the Detroit metropolitan area and because history does not favor independent candidates for governor.
The last time an independent won a governor's mansion was over a decade ago — Bill Walker, a Republican turned independent, won in Alaska in 2014 — and while there are high-profile examples of success, like independent Jesse Ventura in 1998, there are plenty of failures. In 2022, for example, independent Betsy Johnson garnered considerable attention as a possible spoiler for the Democratic candidate in Oregon, typically considered to be a safe blue state. Johnson wound up winning only 8.6 percent of the vote, not enough to stop Democrat Tina Kotek from defeating her Republican opponent by about 3.5 percentage points.
'Voting for an independent hasn't been people's experience, but I am finding … the idea is appealing to people,' Duggan said. He noted that when he declared for mayor ahead of the 2013 campaign, people counted him out before they got to know him because Detroit hadn't had a White mayor since the early 1970s. 'I can feel the same thing happening here. People are now really starting to understand.'
Hi, it's Jacob Bogage from the economic policy desk diving into a key question surrounding Trump and Republicans' massive tax and immigration bill.
Will this bill really reduce the national deficit?
That's been Republican leaders' talking point the past week:
There are two issues at play here. The first is Vought and Johnson's claims about spending cuts.
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act cuts $1.3 trillion in spending over 10 years, according to the Congressional Budget Office — there's additional savings if you count new revenue, too. Johnson and Vought are asserting that by enacting those budget cuts, Republicans will 'bend the curve' on the national debt, or get the trend line on the debt (it's basically a vertical line now) to flatten out.
But spending cuts in and of themselves are not deficit reducers when they are paired with new spending. The bill increases spending by hundreds of billions of dollars and cuts taxes by $2.4 trillion (plus another $500 billion, if you factor in interest costs), according to the Congressional Budget Office. That's more than enough to wipe out the projected savings and add significantly to the deficit.
The other issue is Thune's claim about projected growth. That is based on the Laffer curve, a popular conservative economic theory that posits there's a Goldilocks zone for tax rates that maximizes government revenue and private-sector growth. Beyond that zone, high tax rates crowd out growth, according to the theory, and actually diminish government revenue because of smaller economic output.
Like every economic theory, there's some truth and some problems with the Laffer curve. The bigger issue is how it's applied to this bill. The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act was loaded with more growth incentives than the current bill, and it still came up short on paying for itself by stimulating economic activity.
Help me cover the tax fight, the IRS, DOGE and more. Follow me on Bluesky: @jacobbogage.bsky.social. And send news tips securely on Signal: jacobbogage.87.
Can we make a deal?
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will meet with representatives from the Chinese government today to discuss a possible trade deal between the two superpowers.
While the Trump administration promised in April to strike 90 trade deals in 90 days — a goal it is dramatically behind on — no deal would be more significant than one with China.
Somos Votantes, an organization focused on civic and voter engagement within Latino communities, tells us it is kicking off a six-figure bilingual digital ad today focused on Trump's failure to live up to his promise of lowering prices.
'Donald Trump promised to lower prices on day one — groceries, health-care costs — but what has he actually delivered?' a narrator asks in the ads titled 'Promised'/'Prometió' that will run on YouTube and digital streaming services in Arizona, Nevada, Michigan and Wisconsin. 'Ridiculous trade wars with allies like Mexico, Canada and now the world, making prices go up for everyone.' The ad also hits Trump for 'letting Elon Musk slash good jobs and destroy cost-saving programs. … This is not what he promised.'
'This isn't about partisanship,' said Melissa Morales, founder and president of Somos Votantes. 'It's about promises that were made and broken.'
Many of you are open to voting for candidates outside the traditional two-party system.
'We should all be voting 'Independent,'' said Terri McKenney, a Realtor in Gilbert, Arizona. 'The current two-party system is like a ballgame where the players are only interested in winning. Neither team particularly cares about the fans and their fate.
Courtney Marsh, a reader in Springfield, Virginia, remembered studying former independent governor Jesse Ventura when she was in high school in Minneapolis. 'We studied the election in school, and I remember collectively my class was stunned by the results but intrigued by what would happen next,' she wrote. 'It has since made me at least take a deeper look at independent candidates, especially for state-level offices.'
And Kristen Smith contributed the viewpoint of the two main parties: 'In a two-party nation like the USA, Independent voters are wasting their votes.'
West Central Tribune (Willmar, Minnesota): When the Trump administration put out a list of immigration sanctuary jurisdictions, officials in Stearns County, Minnesota, were surprised to be on it.
Las Vegas Review Journal: Nevada's legislative session did not end well, highlighting the partisan divisions in a state that will be home to a competitive gubernatorial contest next year.
Ventura County Star (Camarillo, California): The feud between Donald Trump and Elon Musk — in addition to playing out like a juicy political drama — could have a dramatic impact on California and the state's electric vehicle market.
We plan to write about how cuts to Medicaid could have a dramatic impact on rural hospitals later this week. Do you rely on a rural hospital to get care? Do you worry about the solvency of that hospital? Do you use Medicaid to get care from that hospital? Let us know at earlytips@washpost.com.
Thanks for reading. You can follow Dan and Matthew on X: @merica and @matthewichoi.
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