Nigel Farage's fan club is bullish about by-election chances

The National

01-05-2025

ENGLAND goes to the polls today in local and mayoral elections which are mostly in the south and Midlands of the country.
There's also a Westminster by-election in Runcorn and Helsby, called after the sitting Labour MP Mike Amesbury resigned as an MP following a conviction for assault which initially saw him sentenced to 10 weeks in prison, a sentence which was suspended for two years on appeal.
At last year's Westminster General Election Amesbury won the seat with 52.9% of the vote and a majority of 14,696 over the Reform UK candidate, who won 18.1% of the vote, pushing the Conservatives into a poor third place.
Nevertheless, Nigel Farage's fan club is bullish about its chances of pulling off an upset and snatching the seat from Labour. Polling suggests that Labour and Reform UK are neck and neck and the seat could go either way. Yet even if Labour does manage to hold on in the face of the surging far-right party, the result will be cold comfort for Labour.
In normal circumstances Labour should hold this seat, considered one of its safest, comfortably. Privately, Labour's strategists are bracing themselves for a loss. Labour have seen a precipitous fall from public grace since winning a landslide majority in the Westminster General Election last year. However, Labour's apparently massive win was an artefact of the unfair first past the post voting system employed in Westminster elections. It was a victory built on the shallowest of foundations, won on just 33.7% of the popular vote.
Labour promptly set about everyone who had voted Labour in the hopes of the promised change from the hideous and incompetent Conservatives they replaced, opening the door to the even more hideous Reform UK to pose as champions of ordinary people.
It's a sign of the unpopularity of Prime Minister Keir Starmer that he did not join Labour candidate Karen Shore on the campaign trail. It made him the first leader in almost two decades not to campaign in their party's first defensive by-election after a national vote. But right now Starmer is electoral poison to any Labour politician fighting for votes.
Anas Sarwar managed to get through his speech this week to the STUC in Dundee without mentioning Starmer at all.
It's the Tories whose election prospects have most to fear from Reform. There is the very real possibility that we will wake up on Friday and find that another Westminster seat and several English local authorities and mayoralties have fallen into the clutches of Donald Trump's English mini-mes. Nigel Farage will hail this as a sign that he's on course to become the next Prime Minister and pressure on the Tories to do a deal with Reform or to move even further to the right will only increase.
Trump wouldn't be too upset about breaching the constitution
Constitutional experts in the USA have warned that Donald Trump's efforts to pressurise the British Government into helping him secure the golf Open Championship for his Turnberry course on the South Ayrshire coast could be in breach of the American constitution. This would of course not concern the convicted criminal in the White House one bit.
The Guardian newspaper has reported that Trump and his aides have repeatedly raised the issue of holding the Open at Turnberry during Trump's phone calls and contacts with Keir Starmer. One person with knowledge of the discussions told the paper: 'The Government is doing everything it can to get close to Trump."
The Open has not been held at Turnberry since Trump took ownership of the course in 2014. The decision on where to hold the Open is taken by the Royal and Ancient Golf Club of St Andrews, which reportedly has concerns about access and facilities at Trump's Turnberry course which is over five miles away from the nearest train station at Girvan on the unelectrified and single track Ayr to Stranraer line and can only be reached by road along the single carriageway A77.
There are fears that Trump is pressurising the British Government to spend public money to allay the concerns of the R&A and get the Open held on his course, which would be immensely profitable and prestigious for the narcissistic money grubbing president.
Richard Painter, a law professor and former chief White House ethics lawyer from 2005-2007, said: 'This apparent pre-condition of government investment, along with the prime minister's role in trying to influence decisions of R&A about tournament location, looks like sufficient government involvement to meet the meaning of a foreign emolument under the emoluments clause.'
The emoluments clause in the American constitution prohibits an American president or government official from accepting payment in cash or kind from foreign governments.
Another expert, Jordan Libowitz at ethics watchdog Crew, said that while conflict of interest laws do not apply to the president, it was still 'highly unethical' to use the presidency to benefit your private business. He added: 'If moving the tournament there would result in British government funds being spent at the course, it would likely violate the constitution's prohibition on foreign emoluments."
While Trump will certainly not care, the issue here is the willingness of Keir Starmer and the British Government to abase themselves in their efforts to suck up to Donald Trump. At this rate we can expect Keir Starmer shortly to issue a statement saying that he supports Donald Trump as the next Pope.
Findlay even more boorish than Douglas Ross
Scottish Tory leader Russell Findlay has well and truly laid to rest any hopes that the Tories might behave less boorishly in Holyrood now that Douglas Ross is no longer leader. Findlay is if anything even worse. At today's FMQs Findlay, who is clearly rattled by the prospect of the even more right-wing Reform UK snapping at the Tories' heels, was told off four times by Presiding Officer Alison Johnstone for being disrespectful to Scottish Green MSPs.
During an exchange about the end of oil refining at Grangemouth, Findlay hit out at how the SNP brought the Greens into government when the Greens want to shut down oil and gas production, calling the Greens "dangerous fanatics." When the Presiding Officer intervened and told him to treat other members with respect he changed his insult to "dangerous cranks." Former Sun journalist Findlay thinks Holyrood exchanges are an exercise in finding Sun headlines.