
Levy hike offsets fuel price drop
JOHANNESBURG - Motorists can expect a slight reprieve at the pumps in June.
But the increased fuel levy will offset this.
According to the latest data from the Central Energy Fund, petrol could decrease by a few cents.
WATCH: Budget 3.0 | AA warns consumers will feel fuel levy pain
However, diesel motorists could see a more than 30 cents per litre decrease.
The June fuel price adjustment will come into effect on Wednesday, 4 June.
But this will give little relief to cash-strapped consumers after the Finance Minister announced a fuel levy hike.

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The Citizen
20 hours ago
- The Citizen
Surprise that all MPC members were in favour of repo rate cut
Economists say they agree with the decision to cut the repo rate by 25 basis points, but only expect one more this year. After the MPC had a hawkish stance in the past few repo rate decisions, economists thought that another cut would not be on the cards today. But after inflation for April was still below 3%, they started to wonder if a cut could indeed happen. Tertia Jacobs, treasury economist and fixed income specialist at Investec, says the surprise was not the 25 basis points cut, but the fact that the governor of the South African Reserve Bank (Sarb), Lesetja Kganyago, was in favour of a 50 basis point rate cut. 'We would have concurred with the 50-basis point rate cut because we see that the Sarb is behind in the rate cutting cycle. It was interesting that there was a lot of time spent on discussing a lower inflation target. The Sarb really pushed hard for the lower target, but the governor said they need the buy-in from Treasury.' ALSO READ: Reserve Bank cuts repo rate thanks to lower inflation, stronger rand Unanimous decision to cut repo rate Jee-A van der Linde, senior economist at Oxford Economics Africa, points out that five members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted for a 25 basis points cut, while one member preferred a larger cut of 50. 'Although our subjective odds shifted in favour of a 25 basis points cut, our forecast for this meeting indicated an unchanged policy rate, with voting patterns remaining tight due to the exceptionally uncertain external environment.' He says the latest repo rate cut suggests that the Sarb is comfortable with South Africa's inflation outlook, including potential upside risks to prices. 'Looking ahead, we forecast headline inflation will consistently average above 3% from the second half of 2025, trending gradually higher over the near term. 'This suggests that monetary authorities will have their work cut out for them if they want inflation expectations to decrease from current levels (4.3% in 2025 and 4.6% in 2026) to 3%. The Sarb said it will consider scenarios with a 3% objective at future MPC meetings.' ALSO READ: Repo rate cut offers no shelter from Budget 3.0 fallout for consumers It was the right decision – economist Prof Raymond Parsons, economist at the NWU Business School, says he believes the MPC decision to resume its interest rate-easing cycle by reducing rates by another 25 basis points is the right one. 'It is a welcome recognition of the changed economic circumstances which have made this possible. 'The majority view of the MPC therefore recognised the other factors which made it both desirable and practical to further cut borrowing costs for business and consumers at this key juncture in South Africa's business cycle. 'At this stage even a small reduction in interest rates can have a big positive impact on the national economic mood and on confidence levels. Although it is recognised that monetary policy cannot do the heavy lifting in South Africa's growth performance, lower borrowing costs are nevertheless supportive of the country's incipient but weak economic recovery.' ALSO READ: Reserve Bank could cut repo rate on Thursday, but will it decide to? More positive inflation outlook can bring more repo rate cuts Harry Kellan, CEO of FNB, says the repo rate cut comes at a time when there is a more positive inflation outlook for the rest of the year, along with growing urgency to boost economic activity. He expects that the repo rate will be reduced once more this year. 'Interest rates and inflation must be viewed in a wider context. We saw a sharp decline in the FNB/BER consumer sentiment measure in the first quarter of 2025, driven largely by indications of a potential VAT hike which has been removed. 'While the VAT hike uncertainty has been resolved, the recent approved budget does continue to reflect continued fiscal pressures. Consumer sentiment is also impacted by the lower-than-expected inflation increases in house prices as noted in the FNB Property Barometer.' Mamello Matikinca-Ngwenya, chief economist at FNB, says the MPC's decision to cut the repo rate highlights a greater focus on domestic fundamentals. 'The outlook on interest rates will continue to reflect the risks. Should muted local inflation and expectations that the US Fed will resume its cutting cycle before year-end prevail, our current view that another 25 basis points cut is probable this year would be supported.' ALSO READ: Repo rate: Will Reserve Bank cut or err on side of caution? Low inflation and recovery in exchange rate to thank for repo rate cut Angelika Goliger, chief economist at EY Africa, says the decision to cut the repo rate was influenced by several factors, including South Africa's low inflation, a recovery in the exchange rate and declining fuel prices. 'Globally, the US Federal Reserve remains cautious due to uncertainties around government policies and their net effect on the economy, with only two rate cuts expected this year, starting in September. 'However, the outlook for US inflation has improved following yesterday's US Court for International Trade ruling that the reciprocal tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) by the Trump Administration are unlawful and subject to removal. By bringing more trade policy certainty, this could build a case for the US Fed to reduce rates sooner.'


The Citizen
21 hours ago
- The Citizen
Repo rate cut offers no shelter from Budget 3.0 fallout for consumers
Thursday's repo rate cut is unlikely to bring much relief to cash-strapped consumers, as any savings will be offset by the rising fuel levy eating into their income. Although the Reserve Bank's decision to cut the repo rate by 25 basis points on Thursday is good news for economists, it will not shield South Africans from the burden of the fuel and sin tax levies introduced by Budget 3.0. Neil Roets, CEO of Debt Rescue, warns that increased taxing of the workforce is not the answer and will put further financial strain on households, driving them to new depths of despair at a time when they are buckling under the weight of multiple unsustainable inflation-related living costs. 'The reality is that the finance minister's decision to impose new tax measures will hurt lower-income families most, as they will bear a proportionally higher burden, forcing them to make impossible lifestyle choices with the little disposable income they have left.' Before the South African Reserve Bank (Sarb) governor, Lesetja Kganyago, announced the repo rate cut this afternoon, economists polled by Reuters accurately predicted that the Bank would restart its repo rate cutting cycle this month, trimming the repo rate by 25 basis points to bring down the interest rate to 7.25% as the latest inflation data strengthens the case for monetary easing. ALSO READ: Reserve Bank cuts repo rate thanks to lower inflation, stronger rand Repo rate cut too small to matter for consumers 'While any cut in the repo rate benefits consumers, the change is simply not big enough to make any real difference in their lives, or to encourage growth in the economy. The impact on consumers will be minimal, as the 25 basis points cut will mean a tiny saving of R254 per month on a R1.5 million home loan and around R65 on a R500 000 car loan. 'Ultimately, a growing economy is the only solution that will slowly lift the weight of unsustainably high living costs from the shoulders of South Africans,' Roets says. Inflation currently remains outside the Sarb's target range of 3% to 6%, with the most recent data showing that consumer inflation was 2.8% in April, just slightly above March's 2.7%. However, Roets points out, inflation on food and non-alcoholic beverages was 4.0%, the highest it has been since September 2024. 'Overall, inflation is still considered low, which would have been a strong incentive to cut the current repo rate. The exchange rate of the rand also remains a key factor in economic stability and would have influenced the MPC's decision.' ALSO READ: Reserve Bank could cut repo rate on Thursday, but will it decide to? Move to lower inflation target will affect repo rate Kganyago is a longstanding advocate of shifting to a lower inflation target, arguing this would ensure South Africa is better placed to compete with its trading partners. He said earlier that a single-point target of 3% would be in line with South Africa's peers and lead to lower interest rates in the long term. However, his critics worry that reaching a lower inflation target will require tighter monetary policy that will impede growth and employment in a country with one of the highest jobless and poverty rates in the world. On Thursday, Kganyago reiterated his view, saying that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) believes that the 3% scenario is more attractive than the 4.5% baseline and would like to see inflation expectations move lower, towards the bottom end of their target range. He also said the MPC will consider scenarios with a 3% objective at future meetings. However, Annabel Bishop, chief economist at Investec, warns that a lower inflation target risks scuppering further interest rate cuts this year too. 'With a change to the inflation target reportedly occurring soon this year, the Sarb has chosen to cut interest rates this month to avoid the limitation of doing so in the future but then could easily be at risk of needing to reverse the cut.' ALSO READ: Salaries decreased by 2% in April, but higher than a year ago Slow pace of repo rate cuts perpetuates debt trap Roets says the reality is that the slow pace of the country's repo rate reductions is perpetuating the debt trap that millions of ordinary South Africans find themselves in, leaving millions with no option but to survive on credit. 'This scenario has been escalating since the prolonged tightening cycle began towards the end of 2021, when the MPC raised the repo rate by a cumulative 4.75% between November 2021 and May 2023, taking it from 3.50% to 8.25%, the highest level since 2014. ' Against this backdrop, the latest Statistics SA General Household Survey, released on Tuesday this week, reveals shocking statistics about hunger in the country. According to the survey results, almost a quarter of South African households did not have enough food to eat last year. This means that around 14 million people out of South Africa's population of 63 million went hungry. Of those polled, 22.2% of households considered access to food inadequate or severely inadequate. 'South Africans need real financial relief. This is a glaring red flag that should be at the top of the list of concerns for government. Sadly, this means more and more South Africans are relying on their credit and store cards to put food on the table and keep the lights on. 'The likelihood is that they will default on debt and fall into an even deeper trap, as the cost of credit increases due to existing debt. This is most evident with big purchases like home and car loans.'

IOL News
a day ago
- IOL News
A step backwards for the country's poor
SOUTH Africa's third iteration of the 2025 National Budget, colloquially referred to as Budget 3.0, is the consequence of the Government of National Unity (GNU) partners not being in agreement on the contents of the previous two versions of the budget. Historically, a most embarrassing time for the finance ministry, as the budget was not able to pass the approval of the house. In the past 30 years, when the ANC was in the majority, it was a fait accompli that the budget would be paraded through parliament without comment or question. Our GNU is essentially a partnership between several parties, some historically in opposition to each other, that are now unlikely partners that have come together to collectively form the government. One would have assumed that these parties would air out their difference behind closed doors and show the world a unified face, but this was a naïve assumption. The DA appeared to have suffered from amnesia, as a member of the GNU, well represented in the form of the Deputy Minister of Finance, who collectively crafted the budget, then opposed a VAT increase to fund essential spending. One can only describe the DA's behaviour as grandstanding during the first iteration of the budget, where they opposed the VAT increase of 1%. Enjoying their moment of the limelight, they opposed the revised VAT increase of 0.5% immediately and 0.5% in a year's time in the 2nd Iteration of the budget. Remarkably, their voters, generally the wealthy and the white community, may not have felt the impact of a VAT increase, but the sales tax would have impacted the middle-income earners, leaving the poor unscathed. Some have explained the real motive of the DA was to force the reduction of social spending to avoid a widening budget deficit. Budget 3.0 is the result of incredibly difficult choices trying to fund a R65 billion shortfall, which a VAT increase would have yielded. Our official unemployment rate of almost 33% , forces many South Africans to rely on Social grants. The Covid-19 Social Relief of Distress (SRD) grant, introduced to provide financial assistance to the vulnerable during the pandemic, was meant to be a temporary measure consisting of R370. The SRD and its poverty relief is cancelled from March 2026. This saving will add approximately R35 billion to next year's budget. Old age and other grants, which the treasury planned to increase over a 2-year period, will now increase only this year, saving the government R6.6 billion over three years. Motorists and Commuters will pay an extra 16 cents per litre on petrol and 15 cents per litre on diesel to help offset lost revenue from the withdrawal of the VAT rate increase. Passenger Rail Agency of South Africa (PRASA) would originally have received R19.2 billion over three years to assist with a turnaround at the shattered commuter rail company; this allocation will be reduced to R12.3 billion. R2.3 billion is saved by scrapping plans to digitalise Home Affairs over a 3-year period, which is a setback to its efforts to make the process of getting identity documents, passports and other documentation more efficient. The education department had a three-year budget to expand access to early childhood development and compensate employees at the provincial level, which has now been drastically reduced by R9.5 billion. The already understaffed health department will suffer further as funds allocated for salaries to hire unemployed doctors and to buy medical supplies are slashed by R8.2 billion. We have a huge National debt to service of R426 billion, translating to 20% of the revenue collected from taxes, which is currently spent on servicing interest and debt repayments on loans built from past budget deficits. Currently, we are growing at a very slow pace of 0.6%, while many emerging economies and our BRICS partners like India and China grow at rates of over 5%. Slow growth makes job creation, increased standards of living, including education and healthcare, impossible to achieve. One of the obvious solutions is promoting Trade. Our president's recent visit to the White House was aimed at trading more trade and lowering tariffs with the USA, while time will tell the consequence of BEE rules for Elon Musk's Starlink will be a small price to pay if we can retain a favourable trading relationship with our biggest trading partner. Strong trade relations help retain a healthy demand for Rand. Currency stability makes for easier National debt redemption and helps stabilise the price of Oil imports, calming inflationary and interest rate swings. As we reflect on a busy economic week of Budget 3.0 and Ramaphosa's White House visit, we spare a thought for the poorest in our land, who are now ever poorer after this budget. Budget Revenue = R2.2 Trillion Budget Expenditure = R2.6 Trillion Budget Deficit = R377.9 Trillion