National Hurricane Center keeping eye on system off coast. See what Florida can expect
Chances for tropical development from a system off the coast of Florida dropped to zero Wednesday morning.
Chances for development were low Monday and Tuesday, but were dependent on the system of low pressure remaining over open water.
By 8 a.m. June 4, forecasters were expecting development of a non-tropical area of low pressure to occur inland over South and North Carolina.
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The National Hurricane Center said showers and thunderstorms associated with the system currently are located over Florida and warned heavy rain associated with the system could bring heavy rainfall and some flash flooding to portions of the southeastern coast June 4 and June 5.
Saharan dust moving across the Atlantic and moving into Florida has helped keep the tropics quiet. The dust helps prevent storms from developing or strengthening.
Historically, tropical systems in June develop close to the U.S., off the southeast coast or in the Gulf of America or Caribbean. Later in the season, storms typically form out of tropical waves moving off the coast of Africa.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially began Sunday, June 1, and meteorologists from NOAA to AccuWeather are predicting an above-normal season.
The first named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will be Andrea.
Here's the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center as of 8 a.m., June 4.
Showers and thunderstorms located over the Florida peninsula, the southeastern U.S. coast, the northwestern Bahamas, and the adjacent Atlantic and Gulf waters are associated with a broad trough of low pressure.
A non-tropical low pressure area is forecast to form from this system on Thursday, but it is becoming increasingly likely that this development will occur inland over South Carolina and North Carolina.
As a result, the low's chances of acquiring subtropical or tropical characteristics have diminished.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could cause some flash flooding along portions of the southeastern U.S. coast today and on Thursday, June 5.
Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near 0 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days: low, near 0 percent.
The National Hurricane Center also is monitoring a tropical wave in the Atlantic southwest of Cabo Verde. It's moving west at 11 mph.
Forecasters urge all residents to keep an eye on the tropics and to always be prepared.
"The system poses no direct threat to Florida but could bring some elevated rain chances along the I-95 corridor and rough seas and a high risk for rip currents along Atlantic beaches mid-to-late week," according to the Florida Department of Emergency Management.
"Showers and thunderstorms located over the Florida peninsula, the southeastern U.S. coast, the northwestern Bahamas, and the adjacent Atlantic and Gulf waters are associated with a broad trough of low pressure," the National Hurricane Center said.
A tropical wave is a system of low pressure that moves westward across the tropics. Waves can lead to the formation of tropical cyclones, under the right conditions, according to the National Weather Service.
The majority of tropical cyclones develop out of tropical waves, which also are called easterly waves, according to NOAA. AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski said 85% of all tropical storms can trace their origins to tropical waves.
"If a tropical wave survives its journey westward, it will find increasingly warm waters and moist air as it approaches the Lesser Antilles, a group of islands in the Caribbean Sea," AccuWeather said.
Historically, named storms that develop in June pop up off the southeastern coast of the U.S. and the Gulf of America, according to data from NOAA and the National Weather Service.
By August, storms usually develop in the Atlantic or as they emerge as tropical waves off the coast of Africa.
AccuWeather meteorologists said showers and thunderstorms stretching from the Bahamas to South Florida and Cuba will slowly drift north-northeast into Thursday, drenching Florida, southern Georgia, and coastal areas of the Carolinas.
"Too much rain may fall too fast and lead to flash urban flooding. Cities such as Miami and Fort Lauderdale, Florida; Charleston, South Carolina; and Wilmington, North Carolina; should be prepared for flooding.
"Not only is urban flooding a concern, but building seas and local onshore winds from the budding low pressure area can lead to dangerous rip currents, coastal flooding, and beach erosion from the Florida east coast to the Carolinas."
Another area being watched for potential tropical development between June 8 and June 13 is the western and central Caribbean.
Saharan dust is moving into Florida and may hang around until Saturday.
➤ 'Wall of dust': See impacts of Saharan dust, smoke from Canadian wildfires in Florida
A flood watch is in effect for Broward and Miami-Dade counties, with an additional 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain expected June 4 and some isolated locations getting up to 6 inches, according to the National Weather Service Miami.
➤ Excessive rainfall forecast
Some areas in Southwest Florida could receive more than 2.5 inches of rain June 4, according to the National Weather Service Tampa Bay.
Heavy rainfall will be possible with a widespread 1.5 to 3 inches through Thursday with isolated higher amounts," according to the National Weather Service Tallahassee.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
We will update our tropical weather coverage daily.
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This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: Hurricane Center tracking system off Florida. See forecast, impacts
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