In Desmond Bane trade, Grizzlies and Magic make opposite bets for the future

New York Times

11 hours ago

You normally wouldn't suspect the Orlando Magic and Memphis Grizzlies to be trade partners, since in many ways, the teams are birds of a feather. Both teams weathered multiple injuries en route to first-round playoff exits, both teams have young-ish rosters they're still figuring out but have now become expensive and, most importantly, both teams have the same strengths and weaknesses: A lot of defense and not much shooting.
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Nonetheless, the Magic and Grizzlies cut a big deal Sunday, one that may be revelatory about the next steps for both teams and the mindset of where they stand. In essence, it was a challenging trade regarding the value of Desmond Bane to a contender on his current contract. Orlando's project still felt too undefined as it waited and waited to push its chips in, with too many random guys and not enough starter-level talent; Memphis, on the flip side, felt too boxed by Bane's salary and the team's lack of transactional flexibility.
Before we go further, the details: The Grizzlies sent Bane to Orlando for guards Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Cole Anthony, the 16th pick in the 2025 draft, unprotected 2028 and 2030 first-round picks from Orlando, a top-two protected pick swap with Orlando in 2029 and an unprotected first in 2026 that could be Orlando's but may be involved in a complicated pick swap.*
(*That swap merits its own analysis. The worst-case scenario is that it's just an unprotected first from Orlando. However, the lesser of Phoenix's or Washington's picks can be swapped with Orlando's pick in 2026; if the Wizards remain bad and the Suns fail to improve, this is a potential late lottery pick for Memphis. However, this pick is also top-eight protected on the Washington side. Thus, if we presume the Wizards will be brutally bad again, the Orlando swap can only happen if the Suns don't luck into jumping the Wizards on lottery night, resulting in the Wizards' pick being swapped with theirs.
But wait, there's more! Additionally and confusingly, Memphis already owns another piece of this swap from a different trade, one that allows the Grizzlies to swap picks with whatever pick Phoenix has left after the Orlando swap … the same pick that was just traded to Memphis. So the Grizzlies now have the right to swap with a pick they already own.
TL;DR: Memphis had one first in 2026, and now it has two. This pick is most likely Phoenix's, but maybe not.
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So, back to the main question: Did the Magic really give up four firsts and a swap for Bane? And … why?
While the cost of secondary stars has gone up in recent years (see: Bridges, Mikal), Bane is an interesting choice for the Magic because he's not an All-Star, and his contract is expensive. Yes, the deal is cap-neutral for the coming season, and we have to acknowledge that part of the draft-pick cost is for suboptimal contract money going outbound.
However, the Magic are locked into four years and $163 million for Bane and are already facing an expensive roster in the coming years due to the max extension for Franz Wagner and the one likely coming for Paolo Banchero. That's the situation Memphis was trying to escape with Bane's deal next to Ja Morant's and a likely max deal for Jaren Jackson Jr. (more on that in a minute).
Adding Bane's salary to the 2025-26 cap doesn't alter the math much; Orlando is likely to dip into the luxury tax and flirt with the first apron. However, a likely supermax for Banchero would put Orlando above the second apron in 2026-27 if he makes one of the All-NBA teams in 2025-26. The Magic have some outs between now and then with non-guarantees and team options, but this Jalen Suggs-Bane-Wagner-Banchero-Wendell Carter Jr. core is pretty locked in. Any further additions will be at the margins with the tax exception or via trades.
Skill-wise, the Bane trade is significant for Orlando in one important respect: He's an awesome shooter with deep range, one who has made 41 percent from 3 for his career, and the Magic were last in the NBA in both 3-point makes and 3-point percentage in 2024-25. In terms of addressing a need, Orlando hardly could have done so with more of an exclamation point. Bane had been pressed into more on-ball reps the last two years in Memphis due to injuries and roster issues but should thrive playing off the ball next to Orlando's two high-usage forwards.
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Off the ball, he is particularly adept at shot-faking defenders closing out on his catch, then reloading and launching once they've finished vaulting themselves into the seats.
Like this. Adios, Ayo:
However, Bane's addition has the knock-on effect of making defensive stopper Suggs a full-time point guard. Is this something he can handle, even with Wagner and Banchero taking so many on-ball reps? Do the Magic still need a point guard who can push tempo and touch the paint in the half court? Is that type of player still gettable with their remaining exceptions and assets? That part, I would say, is more a leap of faith and might be the tipping point in how Orlando looks back on this deal. If the lineup doesn't work, Orlando's next moves become complicated, as the Stepien Rule will prevent the Magic from trading any firsts until 2032.
Bigger picture, the question is simpler: Was Bane the one? Orlando has been incredibly disciplined in keeping its powder dry while the Suggs-Wagner-Banchero trio developed. Setting sugarplum fantasies of Giannis Antetokounmpo aside, was this the best player the Magic could reasonably acquire with their pick haul?
I think that's where you can view this trade most favorably for Orlando. Four picks sounds like a lot, but keep in mind that their future picks weren't going to be highly valued in trade talks because of the presumption that the team will be good — Wagner is 23, and Banchero is 22.
Thus, the 16th pick in 2025 and the complex potential Phoenix swap in 2026 were their most valuable assets, and the first of those was about to die on the vine. Meanwhile, the team is about to get expensive and has expectations that come with that. If the time to push its chips in and make a move wasn't right now, it was certainly now-adjacent. The Magic didn't need to add more developmental players in the next two drafts.
Bane, who turns 27 this month, is also a much better timeline fit in Orlando than some of the other trade prospects out there. Plus, the fact that he's a guard means he doesn't mess with the Wagner-Banchero forward lineup.
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Finally, the other aspect we can't ignore is the state of the Eastern Conference. With injuries to Jayson Tatum and Damian Lillard, the East seems wide open for 2025-26. Orlando has to be looking at the Indiana Pacers and thinking, 'Why not us?' Even the biggest skeptic of the price the Magic paid has to acknowledge that this roster, at worst, should be one of the four best in the East next season.
That takes us to the flip side of this trade: If Bane is so good, why was Memphis willing to move on from him?
First things first: The Grizzlies aren't tanking or tearing things down or anything close to that. In fact, they theoretically are in just as much of a win-now mode as the Magic. They just changed coaches because they 'only' won 48 games and have two All-Stars in their mid-20s in Morant and Jackson.
Agreeing to this deal had to hurt a little. A homegrown development project after the Grizzlies stole him with the 30th pick in the 2020 draft, Bane was the best shooter on a roster that mostly lacked shooting and a tireless worker with unimpeachable character.
And yet … when I talked to other executives about the Grizzlies for this story in April, Bane's contract was seen more as a problem than a positive. A non-All-Star on a near-max deal, he can't fit into every salary structure and will push most good teams into the tax aprons, as he will in Orlando.
This trade gives Memphis a reset of sorts. The Grizzlies get a short-term replacement in the 3-and-D role in Caldwell-Pope and, in the longer term, a clearer pathway for Jaylen Wells to play shooting guard, where Memphis prefers him. The Grizzlies will get a potential swing in the draft at No. 16 after their pick went out in the Marcus Smart salary dump and a big dollop of future draft capital.
That last part is perhaps the most important element of that story, as I don't think the Grizzlies made this trade because they were fired up about the 2030 draft. Memphis made this deal to get the assets and cap flexibility to make other deals; scuttlebutt already has the Grizzlies making calls about a few targets.
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In the short term, the Grizzlies are likely to use cap space to renegotiate and extend Jackson's contract — this deal was cap-neutral* in that respect — and then use their room exception for frontcourt help.
(*The trade reduced Memphis' available cap room by $2.2 million, for the moment. Memphis has $4.5 million in room, including Santi Aldama's $11.88 million cap hold. The magic number the Grizzlies are trying to get to is likely at or near $13 million, which would allow them to renegotiate and extend Jackson with a four-year max at 30 percent of the cap. They can hit that number by trading John Konchar and moving down from the 16th pick to the last couple of spots in the first round, or by trading Konchar and Jay Huff to move down only a few spots.)
The Grizzlies can't aggregate the salaries of Anthony or Caldwell-Pope until late in the summer, but Anthony in particular could be involved in deals right away given his de facto expiring contract. (He has a $13.1 million team option for 2026-27.)
For instance, it's quite possible that the Grizzlies make small salary moves that let them use cap space on the Jackson extension, then turn around in July and use Anthony's contract and one or more of the future picks to take money back. Even after they extend Jackson, pay Aldama and use the projected $8.8 million room exception, they'll have at least $15 million in float below the projected tax line.
Anthony can be traded for up to $20.6 million in returning salary, which would put him in range for players such as P.J. Washington, Daniel Gafford, Deni Avdija, Keegan Murray, Cam Johnson, Jakob Poeltl and Isaiah Stewart, to name a few possibilities from a quick trawling session through the league's cap sheets. Anthony could also be used in a sign-and-trade for a player who made up to that amount, such as Naz Reid or Nickeil Alexander-Walker.
Big picture, here's the important takeaway: The Magic were OK overpaying for Bane in raw terms because they felt the fit was one of the last pieces in their build-a-contender puzzle. The Grizzlies, despite their recent success, felt the opposite and took a deal that seemed too good a value to pass up.
Finally, get your popcorn: Memphis has maximized its available assets — the Grizzlies have 10 firsts and three swaps in their war chest — for the moves that will inevitably follow as it retools the supporting cast around Morant and Jackson; starting-caliber small forwards and centers likely top the shopping list. Look for Orlando to stay active, too, playing small ball around its suddenly defined core. It's a great way to kick off transaction season because it sets the table for more deals to come.
(Top photo of Desmond Bane and Franz Wagner: Justin Ford / Getty Images)