Euro Rising to $1.30 Is Reasonable Target: 3-Minute MLIV
Anna Edwards, Tom Mackenzie, Guy Johnson, and Mark Cudmore break down today's key themes for analysts and investors on "Bloomberg: The Opening Trade." For up to the minute market intelligence and insight, click MLIV . (Source: Bloomberg)
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Hedge Funds Face California Rebuke Over Role in Wildfire Claims
(Bloomberg) -- Hedge funds are facing pushback in California as their bets tied to insurance claims stemming from the Los Angeles wildfires are attacked as unethical. Next Stop: Rancho Cucamonga! Where Public Transit Systems Are Bouncing Back Around the World ICE Moves to DNA-Test Families Targeted for Deportation with New Contract Trump Said He Fired the National Portrait Gallery Director. She's Still There. US Housing Agency Vulnerable to Fraud After DOGE Cuts, Documents Warn The transactions in focus are tied to so-called subrogation claims, which hedge funds, private equity firms and other alternative investment managers have been buying from insurers over the past few months. Subrogation kicks in if a third party such as a utility is suspected of being responsible for losses covered by insurers. Hedge funds buying these claims from insurers are now under attack from the California Earthquake Authority, which is the administrator of the California Wildfire Fund. It has described such transactions as 'opportunistic, profit-driven investment speculation,' and says it's planning to take on 'hedge funds and other speculators' that it claims 'are actively seeking to profit from California's devastating wildfire catastrophes.' In practice, that means the authority will try to block the payout of what it says could end up being 'billions of dollars' to the investors that bought the claims, according to materials prepared ahead of a meeting that took place last month with the California Catastrophe Response Council, which oversees the fund. To that end, it plans to engage California's state legislature, according to a transcript of comments made during the meeting and seen by Bloomberg. A spokesperson for the authority declined to comment. Bradley Max, a director at Cherokee Acquisition, a New York-based investment bank that trades and invests in subrogation claims, says the development has 'put a chill on bidding,' which is already visible in pricing. Subrogation rights tied to the Eaton Fire that ripped through Southern California in January were trading as high as 50 cents on the dollar at one point, but have now dropped 'at least a few points lower,' Max said. Still, even though the political development has led to lower prices on the subrogation claims, it hasn't held back transactions, he said. Cherokee said in April it had brokered deals linked to the Los Angeles fires for 'larger, more sophisticated distressed debt hedge funds.' And by April 15, investment bank Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. had executed 10 transactions tied to the Eaton and Palisades fires totaling over $1 billion worth of recovery rights, Ronald Ryder, co-head of special assets at Oppenheimer, told the California Earthquake Authority. That includes over $125 million in claims traded in just one day, Ryder wrote. A spokesperson for Oppenheimer declined to comment. Cherokee didn't name the hedge funds for which it brokered deals. In an email to the California Earthquake Authority, Ryder said that as catastrophic weather events become 'more prevalent,' insurers are increasingly resorting to 'recovery subrogation in the secondary market to fortify the balance sheet.' There's a growing consensus that insurers can't cover the rising costs of weather-related catastrophes alone, especially as climate change fuels more extreme events. For that reason, the industry is looking for ways to shift part of its financial risk over to capital markets, with alternative asset managers often the only investor class willing to step in. Efforts to prevent investors from profiting from the subrogation claims they've bought represent 'a politically motivated attempt to not pay legitimate obligations,' Max at Cherokee said. They're 'trying to beat up deep-pocketed hedge funds, despite the ethical and legal implications,' he said. Recovery of subrogation claims is costly and can take years to play out, which is why insurers have started selling them in exchange for an upfront cash payment. The hedge funds buying them are betting that the recovery sum at the end of the process will exceed the amount they paid the insurer to buy the claim. The market for investing in subrogation claims is characterized by over-the-counter deals with little to no transparency. Subrogation deals had a seminal moment more than half a decade ago, when faulty power lines and equipment failures at California utility PG&E Corp. were blamed for wildfires in the state. Back then, hedge fund Baupost Group LLC purchased claims against PG&E worth $6.8 billion. Bloomberg has previously reported that Baupost may have generated an estimated $1 billion of profits. The California Wildfire Fund, which is administered by the state's Earthquake Authority and overseen by the California Catastrophe Response Council, was set up in 2019 to help reimburse claims arising from wildfires caused by utility companies. If hedge funds prevail in their subrogation claims, some of the money could end up coming from the California Wildfire Fund. The fund, which sits on about $13 billion in liquid assets, is partly capitalized by three utilities — San Diego Gas & Electric Co., Edison International's Southern California Edison and PG&E. While the cause of the January fires remains under investigation, it's already clear that the Eaton Fire started inside the service territory of Edison and therefore leaves the fund potentially exposed, the authority said. With current estimates for insured losses as high as $45 billion, the January Southern California wildfires are expected to be the costliest in US history, according to the California Earthquake Authority. The Earthquake Authority and Catastrophe Response Council are now reviewing claims and administration procedures as they take the matter to the state legislature. Cavs Owner Dan Gilbert Wants to Donate His Billions—and Walk Again The SEC Pinned Its Hack on a Few Hapless Day Traders. The Full Story Is Far More Troubling Is Elon Musk's Political Capital Spent? What Does Musk-Trump Split Mean for a 'Big, Beautiful Bill'? Cuts to US Aid Imperil the World's Largest HIV Treatment Program ©2025 Bloomberg L.P.
Bloomberg
2 hours ago
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How Will Private Equity Change Big Law?
Wall Street Week Big law is going through a transformation as private equity sees the investment potential in law firms. For an industry built on tradition and ethics, how will non-lawyers change the business? (Source: Bloomberg)
Yahoo
2 hours ago
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Corporate Cash Levels Are Starting to Fall
(Bloomberg) -- The latest earnings period brought what might be an early warning sign about credit quality for high-grade US companies. Next Stop: Rancho Cucamonga! Where Public Transit Systems Are Bouncing Back Around the World ICE Moves to DNA-Test Families Targeted for Deportation with New Contract US Housing Agency Vulnerable to Fraud After DOGE Cuts, Documents Warn Trump Said He Fired the National Portrait Gallery Director. She's Still There. Cash levels at blue-chip companies are shrinking, when excluding results from the most-cash-rich corporations. Among members of the S&P 500 that have posted results, cash levels for the latest quarter fell nearly 1% compared with the last three months of 2024. That's according to a Bloomberg News analysis that focuses on non-financial companies with less than $30 billion of cash. The group's cash holdings, now at $1.14 trillion, have broadly been declining since the third quarter of 2023, when they peaked at $1.21 trillion. While companies are still generally performing well, shrinking cash levels can be a sign of business slowing and profits falling. That's a particular concern now as escalating trade wars potentially boost the cost of foreign inputs, weigh on profits, and increase inflation. Bond prices for many US companies leave little room for error. Spreads, or risk premiums, on US high-grade corporate debt averaged just 0.85 percentage point on Friday, the tightest level since March. The average level for the last two decades is closer to 1.5 percentage point. 'It's actually a dangerous position to be in,' said Michael Contopoulos, deputy chief investment officer at Richard Bernstein Advisors. 'If you bring down cash balances and you find yourself having to deal with higher inflation and higher volatility, your debt is going to get punished.' For the biggest cash generators, the story is different. Giants from Meta Platforms Inc. to Microsoft Corp. and Nvidia Corp. generally posted strong earnings this quarter. The top 12 biggest holders of cash saw their holdings rise about 1.4%, to around $756.7 billion. The dozen companies, which also include companies outside of the technology industry like Johnson & Johnson, each have more than $30 billion of cash and marketable securities on their books, and hold in total about 40% of the S&P 500's cash. The biggest companies can distort averages, and by some measures many high-grade companies aren't looking great. Leverage levels, for example, have been better about 80% of the time over the last two decades, a UBS Group AG analysis found. But by other measures companies are still performing well. Investment-grade firms are holding more cash as a share of their assets than they have on average over the past decade, according to data from S&P that analyzed North American companies. It's likely the behavior that has contributed to the declines in cash — such as boosting share buybacks — has reversed this quarter as companies prepare for a slowdown, Bank of America credit strategist Yuri Seliger said. That's why some money managers are stopping short of saying that it's time to prepare for the worst. 'You still want to be positioned in companies that have the ability to weather a range of scenarios, but at the same time, I don't think you want to price your entire portfolio to the worst possible outcome,' said Maulik Bhansali, senior portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments. If any credit weakness were to hit, it would likely start with smaller companies, and in leveraged finance or even private credit, said Matthew Mish, UBS' head of credit strategy. A close look does show some signs of weakness, at least in the smaller firms. Corporate profits for domestic, non-financial companies declined by about 3% in the first quarter compared to the previous period, Bureau of Economic Analysis data shows. 'The large liquid megacaps have certainly outperformed,' Mish said. 'Under the hood, there certainly is a little bit more weakness.' Week In Review Elon Musk is selling $5 billion of debt to help fund his artificial intelligence startup xAI Corp., the latest in a series of fundraising efforts across his business empire as the billionaire pivots away from politics and returns to running his companies. As part of that bond and loan sale, xAI opened its books to investors, showing the company generated about $52 million of gross revenue in the first quarter, and lost $341 million before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization. The sale may be complicated by a very public feud between Trump and Musk. Hong Kong developer New World Development Co. is sliding deeper into distress after its recent decision to delay interest payments on some bonds, marking the latest flashpoint in a years-long crisis in China's property market. Hedge fund founder George Weiss filed personal bankruptcy months after a federal judge ruled he's liable for more than $100 million in debt his eponymous firm owes Jefferies Financial Group Inc. JPMorgan Chase & Co. is sounding out investors for an almost $2 billion loan for Trucordia, the latest instance of a Wall Street bank refinancing debt that insurers initially secured from private credit firms. A group of Wall Street banks, led by Jefferies Financial Group Inc. and UBS Group AG, have started pre-marketing more than $1 billion of debt to fund Bain Capital's acquisition of restaurant chain operator Sizzling Platter. Owens & Minor, a distributor of medical supplies, canceled its planned purchase of Rotech Healthcare Holdings, sending its bonds on a wild ride. Notes it sold in April, with a 10% coupon and due 2030, dropped, because they can be redeemed at par and had been trading above face value. Many other securities the company had sold rallied. Banks and private credit funds are competing with each other to provide as much as €2.5 billion ($2.9 billion) of debt to insurance broker Diot-Siaci Group. Clearlake Capital-backed Wellness Pet Company snagged fresh financing and completed the first step of a debt deal that involves creditors taking a reduction in the value of the original amount they lent. German autoparts maker ZF Friedrichshafen AG pulled in more than €4.5 billion ($4.6 billion) in orders for a new bond sale, signaling strong investor support for shoring up its finances during a rocky stretch for the sector. Delta Air Lines Inc. sold $2 billion of investment-grade bonds Thursday to help repay a government loan it took out during the pandemic to pay employees. A $2.15 billion leveraged loan has been launched to help fund the planned acquisition of Colonial Enterprises Inc. Bankrupt genetic analysis company 23andMe will hold a second auction for its cache of DNA data with an opening bid of $305 million from a group led by the company's former chief executive officer, Anne Wojcicki. A subsidiary of Sunnova Energy International Inc. filed for bankruptcy in Texas as its parent struggled to convince creditors to give it funding to turn around its business in an out-of-court process. EchoStar Corp., the wireless and pay-TV operator controlled by billionaire Charlie Ergen, has decided to skip interest payments on three bonds after skipping another late last week. On the Move MUFG Securities Americas Inc. has hired two longtime leveraged loan bankers — Adam Hoffman and Roger Gilbert — as it continues to grow that business. Hoffman joins as head of loan trading while Gilbert will serve as head of loan sales. Both previously worked at Macquarie Group Ltd., which shuttered its US debt capital markets arm earlier this year to focus on private credit. Lane42 Investment Partners founder Scott Graves is building out his senior leadership team, hiring former CVC Capital Partners and Oaktree Capital Management employees to add to the asset manager he founded earlier this year. London-based hedge fund Redhedge Asset Management LLP has hired two portfolio managers amid growing US investor interest for European credit. Won Choi joined from Maven Investment Partners to oversee credit opportunities and special situations. Nick Campregher, formerly at ExodusPoint Capital Management, started last month and is focusing on financials. Before moving to the asset management industry, he had spent about a decade at UBS Group AG as a trader and risk manager. --With assistance from Tom Contiliano. Cavs Owner Dan Gilbert Wants to Donate His Billions—and Walk Again The SEC Pinned Its Hack on a Few Hapless Day Traders. The Full Story Is Far More Troubling Is Elon Musk's Political Capital Spent? What Does Musk-Trump Split Mean for a 'Big, Beautiful Bill'? Cuts to US Aid Imperil the World's Largest HIV Treatment Program ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
