Declining crop yields raise alarm

Express Tribune

12-03-2025

By the end of the season on May 30, there could be a shortfall of at least 3 MMTs, warned veteran agriculturalist Nabi Bux Sathio. photo: file
Listen to article
Progressive farmers have raised serious concerns that overall crop yields have been falling due to climate change, a lack of modern seed varieties, diseases, virus attacks, water shortages, excessive use of ineffective pesticides, and, above all, growers' disinterest due to low profit margins, while pesticide companies continue to multiply each year.
They said there are approximately 680 pesticide companies, half of which import 130,000 metric tonnes of pesticides worth about $360 million (around Rs10 billion), while the rest are engaged in formulation and marketing. Scores of new pesticides are introduced each year.
In the country, there are four major crops — wheat, sugarcane, cotton, and paddy/rice — and no more than 50 other consumable items, including vegetables and fruits. However, despite around 680 companies supplying a good variety of pesticide products, their efficacy and quality remain inadequate to protect standing crops from viral attacks and insects. There must be a ban on the registration of new pesticide companies, along with strict monitoring and vigilance of pesticide quality.
Farmers stressed that the government must focus on research and development (R&D) of new seed varieties to enhance crop yields on a war footing, provide compensation for growers' losses, and take action against fake or substandard pesticides, seeds, and fertilisers to ensure food security. Veteran agriculturalist Nabi Bux Sathio noted that as soon as the number of pesticide companies started rising, crop yields began to decline.
He said that 15-20 years ago, the minimum cotton yield per acre was around 30-35 maunds (one maund equals 40 kilograms), with maximum yields reaching 55-60 maunds. Currently, maximum yields are around 15 maunds, with minimum yields ranging from 6 to 10 maunds. The government set a target of 13 million bales of cotton for the 2024-2025 season, but only about 5.5 million bales have been procured — 2.8 million bales from Sindh and 2.7 million bales from Punjab. The country's cotton requirement is around 11 million bales. The government has already imported 3 million bales, with at least 2 million more to be imported soon.
Regarding wheat yields, he said that according to government calculations, wheat production may drop by 25-30% from the target of 30 million metric tonnes (MMTs), while national consumption stands at around 29 MMTs. By the end of the season on May 30, there could be a shortfall of at least 3 MMTs. Notably, wheat production areas also shrank as growers planted less wheat than last year due to unprofitable rates. Last year, farmers were forced to sell wheat at Rs2,200 to Rs2,500 per maund in Punjab's open market. However, wheat is now being sold at Rs2,900 per maund. There is no concept of a buffer stock in the country to manage emergencies such as torrential rains, floods, or other natural calamities.
Progressive farmer Dr Shakeel Palh from Tando Allahyar said growers are generally advised to adopt modern techniques to boost crop yields, yet they continue to face an influx of substandard seeds, fertilisers, and pesticides. The government neither invests in R&D nor monitors the quality of agricultural inputs. Farmers have repeatedly raised concerns with district deputy commissioners and officials of the Sindh Agriculture Department, but to little avail.
He stressed that the government must take strict action against various mafias in local markets that exploit growers through fraudulent seed, pesticide, and fertiliser sales. Unless authorities intervene and provide farmers with high-quality inputs, including better seed varieties, effective pesticides, and useful fertilisers, improving falling crop yields will remain a tall order. Poor yields could threaten food security, as the country's population continues to rise while agricultural output declines.