Ethnic Hungarian, Moldovan voters saved Romania's democracy
Last week, just before midnight on Sunday, an important piece of news spread quickly around the world: The hard-right candidate George Simion has been defeated, democracy in Romania is safe, and the liberal, pro-European mayor of Bucharest, Nicusor Dan, will be the next president of Romania.
Another-important piece of news followed, which came as a surprise to many Romanian observers but was not as widely reported internationally: Romania's ethnic Hungarians and Moldovan citizens who also hold Romanian passports voted in record numbers for Nicusor Dan, making a decisive contribution to his victory.
Conservative estimates say that over 500,000 — perhaps even over 700,000 — of these voters voted for Dan, which would account for a large proportion of his 830,000-vote lead over his opponent.
In short, without the votes of these two groups, Dan could have lost the election.
Ethnic Hungarians in Romania? Moldovans with dual citizenship? For those who do not know Romania well, this might sound like a niche issue to be discussed by election buffs.
This probably explains why it received little international attention on the evening of the election.
The fact is, however, that both groups play an important role not only in domestic politics in Romania, but also, by extension, in Europe.
Hungarians have been a national minority in Romania since the dissolution of the Austro-Hungarian Empire after World War I, when Transylvania and other regions became part of Romania.
There are currently around one million ethnic Hungarians in Romania, which accounts for about 5.5% of the total population. Most of these ethnic Hungarian Romanians support Viktor Orban, the autocratic prime minister of neighboring Hungary.
Just a week before the second round of Romania's presidential election, Orban gave his backing to hard-right candidate George Simion, even though Simion has an explicitly anti-Hungarian stance and was in the news several years ago for violent actions that targeted the Hungarian minority.
Orban likes to portray himself as the protector of all ethnic Hungarians outside Hungary. Nevertheless, from his perspective, backing Simion in Romania's presidential election was logical and of a higher priority because a Simion victory would have strengthened the "sovereignist" camp — in other words, the autocratic, pro-Russian, anti-EU camp — in Europe.
For Romania's ethnic Hungarians, however, following Orban's lead and backing Simion was not an option. It would have meant voting for a politician with deep-seated anti-minority attitudes and, ultimately, against themselves. So, they didn't.
This became clear on Sunday evening, when Romania's central electoral commission, the BEC, published the figures for each district (judet).
Nicusor Dan received about 53.6% of the total vote, about 830,000 votes more than George Simion. The vote for Dan in all districts with a larger ethnic Hungarian population was massive.
Although there are no exact statistics on ethnic voting patterns, experts like the Transylvanian Hungarian sociologist Nandor Magyari estimate that Dan got between 550,000 and 600,000 votes from Romania's Hungarian minority.
"In this way, Romanian Hungarians voted for the preservation of liberal democracy and the continuation of Romania's Euro-Atlantic path," Magyari told DW.
Some fascinating records were broken in Sunday's election: In the Romanian district of Harghita, where 85% of residents are ethnic Hungarian, an incredible 91% voted for Nicusor Dan, his best result in any Romanian district.
Many Moldovans hold dual Moldovan–Romanian citizenship and are entitled to vote in elections in Romania.
These voters also voted for Dan in record numbers. The president-elect received about 135,000 votes in Moldova — some 88% of all votes cast there.
Most of what is now the Republic of Moldova and the Romanian region known as Moldavia were once both part of the Principality of Moldavia.
Three-quarters of the people in the Republic of Moldova are Romanian-speakers, and the country is occasionally referred to as the "second Romanian state."
Of the country's 2.45 million inhabitants, 640,000 hold dual Moldovan–Romanian citizenship. Many of this group live in western European countries and it is likely that they voted in large numbers for Nicusor Dan there, too.
The reason for this is that Dan's opponent, George Simion, is in favor of the reunification of Moldova and Romania and the creation of a "Greater Romania" — an idea that is not very popular in Moldova. Simion has been barred from entering Moldova since 2014.
What's more, Simion adopts a paternalistic tone towards Moldovans, which does not go down well with most of them.
The Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR), the party of Romania's Hungarian minority, has been part of almost every ruling coalition in Romania since 1996 and played a decisive role in fostering reconciliation between the two historical archenemies, Romania and Hungary.
Orban has, however, in recent years instrumentalized ethnic Hungarians abroad — especially those in Romania — to his own ends. Over 90% of those with dual Romanian–Hungarian citizenship voted for him and his Fidesz party in recent elections.
Indeed, up until last week, the UDMR had almost degenerated into a branch of Orban's party.
Then came a major change: The UDMR and its chairman, Hunor Kelemen, and the leadership of the Hungarian Churches in Romania all unequivocally opposed Orban's recommendation to vote for Simion.
"Orban made a mistake," Transylvanian-Hungarian lawyer and former UDMR politician Peter Eckstein-Kovacs told DW. "He believed that the Hungarians of Transylvania would swallow anything — even his international political nonsense — but he was wrong."
Nevertheless, Eckstein-Kovacs does not see a rupture between the UDMR and Fidesz. "It is a crack in the relationship, not a rupture."
Sociologist Nandor Magyari also believes that "overall, Hungarians in Romania will continue to be big supporters of Orban."
The Republic of Moldova is, after Ukraine, the country most affected by Russian aggression.
The Moldovan region of Transnistria is governed by a separatist, pro-Moscow regime. In addition, Russia has for decades been using energy supplies as a means of exerting pressure on Moldova.
In the interests of its own security and for other reasons, Romania has long been helping neighboring Moldova to loosen its economic ties with Russia and to counter Russian influence there. Sometimes, however, the support is sluggish.
Unlike his predecessor Klaus Iohannis, President-elect Nicusor Dan is interested in the Republic of Moldova and its welfare.
In his victory speech in the early hours of Monday, Dan expressly thanked those in Moldova who had voted for him.
Although he forgot to mention the ethnic Hungarians at the time, he did so in a television interview and a telephone call with the UDMR leader the next day.
This article was originally published in German.
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