Women TDs less likely to retain seats than male counterparts, study shows
Sitting TDs who are women are significantly less likely to retain their seats when they seek re-election than their male counterparts, according to the findings of new research on Irish election results.
Gender emerged as strongly influencing the chances of an outgoing TD being returned to Dáil Éireann in a study which established a number of important factors in determining the re-election success of politicians.
Most notably, being a woman reduced a sitting TD's chances of re-election by 10 percentage points even after controlling for a wide range of other potentially important factors.
'The gender gap in re-election rates appears to be consistent with Ireland's historic underrepresentation of women in politics,' the study noted.
Before last year's general election, females had never accounted for more than 25% of all TDs.
Although legislation was introduced in 2016 which required 30% of a party's candidates running for election to be female which was increased to 40% since 2023, the study said the effectiveness of gender quotas may be limited if there exists 'an inherent disadvantage for women facing re-election.'
The study also found that being a senior Government minister will significantly boost an incumbent's re-election prospects.
However, being a junior minister appears to have no impact on the likelihood of a TD retaining their seat.
The research also offers little comfort for Government backbenchers as it found that TDs who are members of a ruling party but who are not in the Cabinet have a lower probability of re-election success.
It is estimated their reduced likelihood of retaining their seat at being approximately 18 percentage points.
The authors of the study explained that, unlike ministers of state, senior ministers appear to benefit from a re-election boost that is more than sufficient to offset a general anti-government vote.
They calculated that being a senior minister is associated with a 24 percentage point increase in the probability of getting re-elected.
The research – whose findings are published in the latest edition of The Economic and Social Review – examined the performance of incumbent TDs in seven general elections between 1992 and 2020 – a total of 1,140 sitting TDs over the timeframe.
It found that 85% of sitting TDs contested the following general election over the period with 75% being successfully re-elected.
Female TDs only accounted for 15% of incumbents, while just under 10% of sitting TDs held a senior ministerial position.
The average age of sitting TDs was 53 years and the average number of previous terms served in Dáil Éireann was 3.7.
It also found that a sitting TD's ranking in the previous election, in terms of the order in which they were elected, is also an important predictor of future success.
The analysis established that an incumbent member of Dáil Éireann who was elected first in a five-seater constituency is 14 percentage points more likely to be re-elected than a TD elected last in a similar size constituency.
When it comes to the age of a sitting TD seeking re-election, it has a positive effect on the probability of running and winning re-election for each extra year up to the age of 65, after which the effect changes and age becomes a negative factor.
The research found that more competitive elections – in terms of the number of candidates – also reduces an outgoing TD's chance of being returned to the Dáil.
For example, an incumbent in a five-seater constituency with 10 candidates has an 8 percentage points greater chance of being re-elected than one in a constituency with the same number of seats but with 15 candidates.
The results also revealed that incumbents are less likely to run for re-election in more competitive constituencies.
One of the report's authors, Paul Redmond, of the Economic and Social Research Institute and Trinity College Dublin, acknowledged that there were other variables that could be relevant to the success of re-election that were not included in the study such as campaign spending and the quality of non-incumbent candidates.
The study also analysed the impact of voter turnout but found only weak evidence to suggest that an increase in turnout (due to greater participation by peripheral voters) had a negative impact on the re-election prospect of sitting TDs.
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