Syrian government's failure to protect minorities leaves door open for Israeli destabilisation

The National

06-05-2025

Israel is exploiting the Syrian government's failure to secure minority rights in Syria by presenting itself as a protector of the Druze community, analysts and regional military experts told The National, after a wave of brutal sectarian violence by troops loyal to the new authorities left more than 100 people dead in Druze-majority areas. 'We saw clear sectarian chants like 'We're going to genocide the Druze' in Hama and Homs for example. The government has not through statement or practice been trying to stop this kind of harassment or incitement or attacks,' Joseph Daher, a Syrian academic and analyst told The National. The violence was caused by a voice recording which circulated on social media purportedly showing a Druze cleric insulting the Prophet Mohammed. It was debunked by both Syrian authorities and Druze religious leaders. Leaders of the minority sect, an offshoot of Islam, said the recording was fabricated: blasphemy against the Prophet Mohammed is antithetical to the Druze faith, they said. However, that did very little to calm the situation. Islamist militants, some of whom are affiliated with the current Syrian government, converged on Druze-majority towns of Jaramana and Sahnaya, as well as Suweida province, while Druze gunmen rallied to deter attacks on their towns. Israel's rapid entry into the conflict, through a series of air strikes- including near the Presidential Palace – marked its most significant escalation on Syria since December. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed the attacks were aimed at 'protecting the Druze community' and preventing Syrian troop posting south of Damascus. Israel's timing is no accident, analysts say. With Syria's central authority weakened by infighting and sectarian violence, Israel sees a rare chance to reshape post-Assad Syria's borders and political order in its favour. 'Israel wants to see a weak central government or a Syria fragmented along sectarian lines,' according to Riad Kahwaji, head of the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis. 'A Druze state, a Kurdish state, and an Alawite state reinforce the legitimacy of a Jewish state.' According to Mr Kahwaji, Israel's primary objective is to carve out a Druze-controlled buffer zone between itself and Damascus. This strategy, he said, is rooted in a broader geopolitical calculation: Israel wants to pre-empt the rise of a strong, Turkish-backed Syrian government that could eventually support hostile armed groups. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's support for the Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamist groups has deepened Israeli anxieties, particularly over the possibility that post-conflict Syria could become a base for anti-Israel operations under Turkish patronage. Israel is also eyeing full annexation of the Golan Heights, a region of strategic and symbolic significance. It already controls two-thirds of the territory – unilaterally annexed in 1981 in a move rejected by the international community – and occupied the remaining third following the collapse of Bashar Al Assad's regime in December 2024. 'Israel will try to keep as much of the land it has grabbed and will try to get concessions from the Syrians to accept Israeli sovereignty over the whole of Golan-heights,' Mr Kahwaji said. Syrian authorities have condemned Israel's attacks as a 'flagrant violation of international law' and a 'direct threat to regional stability,' while clarifying that they do not seek conflict with Israel. They also accused 'outlaw groups' of instigating the sectarian attacks and posting troops in Druze-majority towns. But the Syrian government – led by Hayat Tahrir Al Sham, a group once affiliated with Al Qaeda – has failed to prevent sectarian attacks since its inception, following the ouster of Bashar Al Assad in December of last year. Many activists and residents accused the government of standing by while radical groups, using the fabricated voice recording as a pretext, assaulted Druze towns last week. Mr Daher described the government's behaviour as part of a broader power-recentralisation strategy. 'It's a strategy to retake or consolidate areas that are not in control of the government. The government blames extremists for the violence, and then it says we'll take control to pacify things.' 'The vast majority of Syrian Druze refuse Israeli instrumentalisation of sectarian issues,' he added. 'The problem is that the government's behaviour will be fuel to people who say we need this kind of coalition [with Israel].' Syrian authorities employed a similar tactic in March, when pro-government forces and allies killed hundreds of civilians from the Alawite minority under the pretext of quelling an insurgency led by militants loyal to deposed president Bashar Al Assad, who is of the same sect. To date, despite government overtures to investigate violations, there has seen no accountability. 'The government cannot say it's trying to bring security when there has been no accountability from previous massacres,' Mr Daher told The National. 'Israel has been able to exploit the situation exactly because the government has been pursuing – directly and indirectly – sectarian policies.'