How political musical chairs empties Malaysian pockets

Free Malaysia Today

19 hours ago

From Ismat Qayum
Depending on who you asked in 2018, Malaysia either enjoyed or endured six prime ministers in six decades.
With another four prime ministers in the ensuing four years, some have argued that this is the lagging effect of a maturing democracy.
Others, however, bemoan that such musical-chairs politics will damage our country's standing.
When Anwar Ibrahim cajoled his motley crew into forming the unity government, there was an implicit promise to all of us.
With a supermajority in Parliament, they would have the political stability to enact overdue reforms.
Ever since the six state elections in 2023, the overarching view has been that while the government's performance is underwhelming, the stalemate result was expected.
Unfortunately, it also meant that any inkling of reformist sails had to be curbed by a don't-rock-the-boat mentality.
The government has, all but in name, implemented a Ming vase strategy.
Govern in caution, preserve the status quo, and this should result in success for the 16th general election. However, in this balancing act, there is a blind spot brewing within party politics.
Recently, we saw two of the biggest sins committed in coalition politics.
First, the ruling governing party, PKR, failed to take care of its own house. The party polls led to the unprecedented resignations of Rafizi Ramli and Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad from their ministerial posts. Rafizi has stepped down as the economy minister, and Nik Nazmi as the natural resources and environmental sustainability minister.
Historically, it has never boded well for Malaysia to see an incumbent deputy president ousted in such a manner – the current prime minister could tell you that firsthand.
The second sin was arguably the tipping point: enabling ministers to shift houses.
The impending entry of the investment, trade and industry minister, Tengku Zafrul Aziz, who quit Umno and wants to join PKR, marks a worrying development in the story of this government.
Already, the ever-opportunistic Dr Akmal Saleh, the Umno Youth chief, has challenged Tengku Zafrul to resign as a minister.
If this rift between the two houses continues to widen, it will bring the question of stability to the forefront.
If there's one thing I have learnt from fund managers, sovereign wealth funds, and development banks, it is the art of managing optics and expectations.
Government is a test of credible commitments. That credibility boils down to a few key ingredients: sound macroeconomic fundamentals, a healthy business environment, and robust governance.
In other words, credible commitments are a test of predictability. You need predictability in your policies. But, more importantly, you need predictability in your politicians.
In 2011, an IMF working paper demonstrated that political instability negatively affects economic growth. This is unsurprising: can we name a single high-growth economic policy from the lame-duck period of 2020-2022?
What's more shocking is that for every additional Cabinet change, a country's annual growth rate decreases by 2.39 percentage points!
If even Malaysians are unsure about the policy priorities (or lack thereof) of incoming ministers, how are foreign investors supposed to feel comfortable about deploying capital?
More pressing is the question of the people's pockets. For every ringgit we are being taxed, how much are we getting in the quality of public infrastructure and services?
Governments have to increase their revenues to increase the amount being redistributed to public goods. There are fundamentally two ways to do that: either increase taxes or have sustainably high growth rates.
As the pie (read: economy) continues to grow, a bigger amount can be given to build better schools and hospitals.
And make no mistake, the Madani government has performed well on most economic indicators.
Inflation has dropped to 1.4%, 2024's GDP growth was a robust 5.1%, and FDI is at the highest in the nation's history. The trouble is, this performance is confined to a single year.
For the wave to cascade equitably across society, one must patiently build it over several years.
Yet, we are already seeing the wave slow down: Malaysia's Q1 GDP 2025 performance was below expectation at 4.4% – the third straight quarter of slower growth.
Factor in the disruption of US president Donald Trump's tariffs, and political instability becomes something the government cannot afford. It would dry the taps of FDI inflows, reduce high-value job creation, and impede wage growth.
Just think about how Malaysia's wages have barely inched since the fallout of the Asian Financial Crisis.
Without a predictable environment, the government would fail in its test of credible commitments. History would repeat itself: the pockets of everyday Malaysians will feel the same, or even worse, 25 years from now.
There is a caveat to the Ming vase strategy: it rarely works for incumbents. When US vice-president Kamala Harris campaigned on a platform against alienation, her message failed to resonate with everyone.
Contrast that to the decisiveness of the Canadian Liberals, who in the final stretch, ousted Justin Trudeau with Mark Carney, resulting in a general election victory.
The unity government must heed this lesson. Incumbents only win if they are willing to be bold. If they stand any chance of stopping their sliding popularity, they must restore stability and enact their implicit promise of reforms.
The worry is that even then, it might be too late.
Ismat Qayum is an FMT reader.
The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of FMT.