Homicides in the Triangle fall, after an uptick during the pandemic
After spiking after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, homicides are declining in the Triangle's two biggest cities.
Why it matters: The trend appears to match a decline in violent crime, especially homicides, across the country after a sudden increase after 2020.
An Axios analysis of the preliminary crime data for 2024 from 69 self-reporting large police departments in the U.S. found that violent crimes decreased overall by 6%, Axios' Russell Contreras writes.
By the numbers: In Raleigh and Durham, homicides increased in the years following 2020, but those numbers have been dropping over the past two years.
Raleigh's homicides peaked in 2022 with 49 — including five associated with the Hedingham shooting — but were down to 27 last year, a 44.9% decline.
In Durham, post-pandemic homicides peaked in 2021 at 49. The number was down 20.4% from that high to 39 last year.
In addition to a drop in homicides, Durham saw a 24% decrease in shooting incidents from 2023 to 2024 — though the number of people shot increased 6.8%, according to Durham Police Chief Patrice Andrews.
"What that tells us is that in any one of these shootings, we generally have more than one person shot," Andrews told the Durham City Council this month. "I think we're averaging just over 1.14 people shot during" an incident when someone is struck by gunfire.
Zoom in: A report in December found that the homicide surge of 2020 was primarily driven by men and teen boys who were laid off or saw their schools close during pandemic shutdowns, Russell wrote.
That pattern has been seen in Durham, where crimes by teenagers have increased and the number of children being killed from gunfire more than doubled between 2018 and 2022, according to WRAL.
State of play: The declines come as both Durham and Raleigh's police departments deal with officer shortages.
Both cities have increased pay for their officers, in an attempt to boost staffing. So far, those efforts have worked, according to each city department.
Raleigh Police said earlier this month that it has 51 vacancies, though it expects to fill all of those positions by this summer, outgoing Raleigh Police Chief Estella Patterson told Axios.
Patterson, however, says she is pushing the Raleigh City Council to budget even more positions to match Raleigh's population growth.
In Durham, the police department had 149 vacancies at the end of 2024, Andrews told the Durham City Council.
Andrews said that staffing has held steady since salaries were increased, with fewer officers leaving for other cities. She added that Durham's police academies are growing and applications are up.
What's next: The Raleigh Police Department will soon have a new chief, with Patterson expected to depart next month.
The city is currently interviewing three finalist candidates for the job, including Rico Boyce, Raleigh's current deputy chief; Sonia Russell, the Detroit Police Department's commander of crime control strategies; and Joshua Wallace, the Chicago Police Department's commander of the criminal network group.
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