NHL Draft Confidential 2025: What insiders think of Matthew Schaefer, goalies and more

New York Times

a day ago

Today, we bring you our annual NHL Draft Confidential. You know where people like me stand on the players and the draft, but today we turn to the NHL, and the people who will ultimately decide where these players land, for their thoughts on the big questions facing this draft class. Numerous NHL evaluators were surveyed for this article. As a note, 'Scout 1' in a given question does not refer to the same Scout 1 in another question.
Scouts and executives were granted anonymity in order to speak freely about the prospects in question.
The most interesting debate in this year's draft, as it is with most drafts, is what happens at the very top. Most expect Erie defenseman Matthew Schaefer to be the first pick. Then there's a big group of forwards after him. Who will be the first forward taken? How close is the grouping? Does anyone have a forward ahead of Schaefer? We asked the NHL.
Scout 1: 'Misa would be our top forward followed by (James) Hagens but there's a sizable gap from Schaefer to those guys.'
Scout 2: 'We have Schaefer, then a gap. (Anton) Frondell is No. 2 for us. He's a potential (Aleksander) Barkov/(Anze) Kopitar type of forward.'
Scout 3: '(Michael) Misa should be No. 1, even ahead of Schaefer. I don't understand why he's not getting as much hype as previous top OHL guys, when he's been just as good, if not better, than some of the top Ontario kids in recent years. He could be an NHL superstar.'
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Executive 1: 'Schaefer is the best player in the draft. It's not close, quite frankly. After that, Misa is the top forward, but it's close. He has the best chance to be a No. 1 center, all-around player who scores a lot.'
Scout 4: 'Schaefer is the top player by a good margin, then it would either be Frondell or Hagens. Misa I think is getting overrated — his compete level is average and he's not as dynamic as some portray.'
Scout 5: 'Martone is the best forward in this draft, and I think in the playoffs he will show he has as much value as Schaefer. He's a competitor who plays a style that will translate to success when the chips are down.'
Scout 6: 'Misa and Schaefer would be neck and neck for me. I would lean Misa. Misa has the potential to be a star No. 1 center, and that's the harder player to find compared to a No. 1 D, even if both are very valuable. (Caleb) Desnoyers would be third, then. He's a great all-around center, a guy you win with.'
Executive 2: 'Schaefer, then a gap to Misa, then a gap to the rest. (Roger) McQueen would have been in the group with Misa if he was healthy.'
Executive 3: 'Schaefer and Misa are clearly ahead of the rest of the pack. Then it would be some order of Hagens, (Jake) O'Brien and Martone. Desnoyers and Frondell are nice players, but we worry about their offensive upside.'
Executive 4: 'Schaefer and Misa distinguished themselves from the pack. Then it's Desnoyers and Frondell in a group with Martone on the edge of that group. I expect that combination of players will make up the first five picks.'
Scout 7: 'It goes Schaefer, then O'Brien, and then Frondell. O'Brien is so talented, has a lot of upside, and a lot of physical development left to go.'
Scout 8: 'Schaefer is in a group by himself, then I would have Desnoyers, Hagens, Martone and Misa all closely bunched together. My lean would be towards Desnoyers as the best of that bunch. He's a winner who does a lot of things very well.'
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Scout 9: 'Schaefer is the top player. Misa could get close, he is extremely talented, although he is inconsistent and has some bad habits. The top forward is between Misa and Desnoyers, but you have to take Misa after the year he had.'
Executive 5: 'After Schaefer/Misa, Brady Martin is right in the mix with that next group, may even be at the top. He looks very similar to what Sam Bennett has become.'
Scout 10: 'Schaefer and Misa are the clear top two players. After that I would have Desnoyers, Frondell, O'Brien and Martin in a close group together.'
Scout 11: 'Schaefer is the best player in the draft, then I would have Desnoyers at 2. He does so much well, he could be a player you build around.'
Executive 6: 'Schaefer is the clear No. 1. Then it would be a group of Misa, Desnoyers, Frondell and Martin for me. It's funny because I think Hagens could potentially outscore all of those forwards by the end of their careers, but you're trying to build a team that wins playoff rounds, and those guys bring different elements.'
Schaefer is by leaps and bounds the top defense prospect in this draft. No other defenseman is expected to go in the top five. But the second defenseman to be picked will be interesting, and we expect another one will go in the top 10. So we asked people in the league for their second-ranked defender.
Executive 1: 'Kashawn Aitcheson is an apex predator. He knocks a guy out with a hit, and then he knocks out the guy who comes calling for the fight afterwards. There's nobody in a top four in the NHL who plays like him. If you want his attributes, it's normally in a No. 6 or 7, but he is a top-four defenseman, a better version of Radko Gudas.'
Scout 1: 'Mrtka will give you the least headaches of the top candidates. He's poised, makes good plays at both ends, just a very good all-around defenseman. Aitcheson's and Smith's hockey sense are concerning.'
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Scout 2: 'Mrtka is clearly the top guy. He transformed Seattle when he got there.'
Executive 2: 'Smith. He's a better skater than Aitcheson or Mrtka. He has the most skill of all of them. His decisions aren't the best, but he has the most pro potential.'
Executive 3: 'Smith. He's big and such a good skater, competes, has offense. There's no miss factor with him.'
Scout 3: 'Mrtka is going to play 1,000 games and just eat up minutes. You wished he played a bit harder, but he has successful pro written all over him.'
NHL teams will at least somewhat follow public discourse. So I asked people around the league who are some top prospects for this draft that they feel the public is overrating.
Scout 1: 'Victor Eklund. He's a small winger without elite offense, those types tend to fall. He's top 10 on almost every list, but I can almost guarantee that won't happen on draft day.'
Scout 2: 'Lynden Lakovic. His compete is an issue, doesn't get to the middle and lack of physical engagement, and his hockey sense is ordinary. He's more of a late first-rounder than a top-15 pick.'
Scout 3: 'Cullen Potter is a one-dimensional offensive guy. His skating is elite, but his compete is average and he doesn't make many plays.'
Scout 4: 'Cameron Schmidt. The lists that have him as a first-rounder are way off. He's talented, but he has a lot of issues in his game. He's probably going in the third round.'
Scout 5: 'Schmidt. He's not special enough of a scorer for where people have him rated. He's skilled and can shoot, but he slowed down a lot in the second half, and his hockey sense is questionable. I'm not even sure I would draft him.'
Executive 1: 'Ivan Ryabkin. We wouldn't even draft him. His compete and habits are pretty bad, and he's not a great skater for his size.'
Scout 6: 'Radim Mrtka. He's not that smart or competitive. I get he's big and skates well, but he's nothing special other than that. More of a teens pick than a top-10 type.'
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Scout 7: 'Kashawn Aitcheson has major questions for us in terms of his hockey sense and decisions. You love how hard he plays, but he's not that big either. He's good but nothing special.'
Executive 2: 'People need to slow down on the Brady Martin hype because he had a good U18s. He's super likable because he hits a lot of guys and has skill, but he's not a smart player and probably a middle-six wing in the NHL.'
Executive 3: 'Desnoyers and Frondell are both being oversold a bit. They're good players who compete but don't have high-end hockey sense. They are second-line centers at best in the NHL. I would much rather bet on guys like Hagens, Martone or O'Brien.'
On the other side of the coin, who does the league feel is not getting enough love?
Scout 1: 'Cameron Reid. He's an elite skating defenseman with good enough skill and sense. He's not a big points guy in the NHL, but he can be successful in the NHL.'
Scout 2: 'Caleb Desnoyers. See him listed often as a 6-10 guy, would say he's a lot closer to top five. He's a well-rounded center with very good puck play and size — he will go in the first few picks.'
Scout 3: 'Cole McKinney. Don't see him talked about a lot. He was very good the last few months of the season, helped turn that NTDP team around.'
Executive 1: 'Blake Fiddler has a lot more of an identity than some of the other top-ranked defensemen. He's not flashy, but he's hard and can skate and has enough skill. I bet NHL coaches will love him even if he's not a big points type.'
Scout 4: 'People are underrating how high (Justin) Carbonneau in Blainville will go. He does a lot of things NHL teams will love and will translate to the playoffs. He's a handful to contain, he hits guys, skates well and has legit offense.'
Scout 5: 'Jack Nesbitt had a bad U18s, but before that, I thought he had a chance to be a top 10-12 pick. I bet he still goes top 20. He's a big, heavy center with a lot of skill who did a lot of important things for that Windsor team.'
One of the more fascinating prospects in this year's draft is Mason West. He is a 6-foot-6 center who played high school hockey in Minnesota. He's a projected late first/high second-round pick by NHL teams. However, he also has offers to play college football as a quarterback.
Scout 1: 'He's a fantastic athlete. Go look up highlights of the way he can throw a football. He's just so talented. If he commits to hockey and can iron out some details, he has a lot of NHL potential. He's a first-round talent if he's a hockey player.'
Executive 1: 'We're just not in love with the hockey player. He's tall and fast, but he plays on the outside a lot, and he's not overly physical. He's at best a second-round talent who you're now not sure if he's playing hockey or not. He's telling everyone he intends to play football in the fall, then go to the USHL.'
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Scout 2: 'He didn't have a great overall season, but the way he ended it was very convincing between his high school playoffs and in the USHL. He looks like an NHL player.'
Executive 2: 'It seems he's trending towards being a hockey player. He doesn't have QB offers from major schools. But that could change. My biggest concern is you use a high pick on him and then Minnesota offers him a scholarship to be their QB, and then I think he would go that way.'
Executive 3: 'It doesn't seem like he's a premier quarterback recruit. His combine interview will be critical. If he switches positions in football, he could be a higher-tier recruit. What sport is he truly invested in?'
We are near the end of the survey by quickly hitting on the goalie crop. Almost everybody agrees Joshua Ravensbergen is the top goaltender this year. We asked where teams would be comfortable taking him, and who would be their next name.
Executive 1: 'Ravensbergen is a late one/high two type of goalie. The two Russian goalies, Semyon Frolov and Pyotr Andreyanov, look so good on video. If we felt comfortable taking Russians, we would have them as second-round picks.'
Executive 2: 'We don't love Ravensbergen like some others. He's a maybe first-rounder for us. The London guy, Alexei Medvedev, would be our next guy. He's very athletic. I wouldn't say he's truly elite at anything but very good at everything.'
Scout 1: 'Ravensbergen is a late first type of goalie. He's so big and athletic. Then there's a drop to Frolov, then a drop to everyone else.'
Executive 3: 'Ravensbergen is a mid-first. We think he has starting goalie potential. Then it's Frolov, who I love. If we got live views I could see us talk him into a first-rounder. He has a ton of talent and structure in his game.'
Executive 4: 'I'm a little hesitant on the Ravensbergen hype. He had a lot of tough stretches this season. We don't have any goalie rated in the first, but the closest would be one of the Russian goalies, and we would lean towards Frolov.'
Finally, we end on a flash poll, where I ask evaluators who are the best prospects in the class at various traits.
• Matthew Schaefer (Unanimous vote)
• James Hagens (Unanimous vote)
• Jake O'Brien (Majority votes)
• Matthew Schaefer (Multiple votes)
• Brady Martin (Majority votes)
• Kashawn Aitcheson (Multiple votes)
Best shot
• Anton Frondell (Majority votes)
• Kashawn Aitcheson
• Victor Eklund
• Cameron Schmidt
(Illustration: Kelsea Petersen / The Athletic; photos of Radim Mrtka, Matthew Schaefer, Joshua Ravensbergen: Michael Miller / Getty, Leila Devlin / Getty)