Shangri-La Dialogue starts as US and China struggle for dominance

BBC News

5 days ago

China does not want to go to war with anyone, especially the US.But Beijing does have aspirations to be the number one economic power in the world.And that means flexing its muscles to rid the seas around East and South East Asia of their US military presence, so it can dominate the shipping lanes so vital for global trade.By building up its nuclear and conventional arsenals, China aims to show the US that times have changed and that it's too dangerous a power to challenge.The US has long had the upper hand in the Asia-Pacific - with tens of thousands of troops based in Japan and South Korea, alongside several military bases.Trump's administration has clearly focused its energy on countering China - by initiating a trade war and seeking to strengthen alliances with Asian nations.The Shangri-La Dialogue has historically been the setting for top-level encounters between the US and China – an arena for the superpowers to set out their vision for security in the region.And it's opening again in Singapore on Friday. Here's what we can expect from the three-day event:
Struggle for dominance
The growing struggle for dominance between the US and China is undoubtedly the biggest issue in Asia-Pacific security.Gone are the days when China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) was characterised by outdated weaponry and rigid Maoist doctrine. Today it is a formidable force deploying state-of-the-art hypersonic missiles and fifth-generation warplanes like the J20.Its navy has the largest number of warships in the world, outstripping the United States.While China lags far behind the US and Russia in its number of nuclear warheads, it is rapidly expanding its nuclear arsenal, with missiles that can travel up to 15,000km, putting the continental US easily within range.The US Navy's formidable 7th Fleet, based in Yokosuka, just south of Tokyo, can no longer claim to have guaranteed naval supremacy in the region.China's array of Dong Feng missiles and swarms of explosive drones would make any approach to its shores extremely hazardous for US warships.Ultimately, Beijing is believed to be working to "push" the US military out of the western Pacific.
Taiwan and the South China Sea
Taiwan is a liberal, self-governing, pro-Western island democracy that China's President Xi Jinping has vowed to "take back" by force if necessary.It has an economic importance well beyond its geographic small size. It manufactures more than 90% of the world's high-end microchips, the all-important semi-conductors that power so much of our tech.Recent opinion polls have made clear that a majority of Taiwanese people do not want to be ruled by Beijing, but Xi has made this a key policy aim.The US has done much to help Taiwan bolster its defences but the key question of whether Washington would go to war with China over Taiwan has always been shrouded in something called "strategic ambiguity", i.e. keeping Beijing guessing.On more than one occasion President Biden indicated the US would respond militarily in the event of a Chinese attack on Taiwan. But the return of Donald Trump to the Oval Office has brought back a degree of uncertainty.
There are also major concerns in the region over China's attempts to turn the entire South China Sea into what some have called a "Chinese lake".The PLA Navy has established military bases on reefs, many artificially dredged, across the strategically important South China Sea, an area through which an estimated $3 trillion's worth of maritime trade passes annually.Today China deploys a vast, industrial fishing fleet across the South China Sea, backed by its fleet of coastguard ships and warships. These vessels clash frequently with Filipino fishermen, fishing close to their own country's shores.China frequently challenges planes and ships transiting the South China Sea, warning them they are entering Chinese territory without permission, when the rest of the world considers this to be international waters.
North Korea's nuclear ambitions
Donald Trump, when asked during his first presidency if North Korea could ever develop nuclear missiles that could reach the continental United States, vowed "it's never going to happen". But it has.In what amounts to a serious CIA intelligence failure, Pyongyang has demonstrated that it now possesses both the nuclear know-how and the means to deliver those warheads across the Pacific Ocean.Successive US presidencies have failed to curb North Korea's nuclear ambitions and this isolated, economically backward yet militarily powerful nation is thought to have at least 20 nuclear warheads.It also has an enormous, well-armed army, some of which its autocratic leader Kim Jong Un has sent to help Russia fight Ukraine.
Stopping another India-Pakistan clash
Defence analysts are still dissecting the recent, brief but alarming conflict between these two nuclear-armed neighbours. India's military far outnumbers Pakistan's and yet the latter was allegedly able to land an embarrassing blow against India's air force, when Pakistan's Chinese-made J10-C jets went up against India's advanced, French-made Rafales.Pakistan reportedly shot down at least one of the Indian warplanes, using Chinese-made PL-15 air-to-air missiles. The reports were denied in India's media.China's assistance to Pakistan in the conflict has reportedly been critical to Islamabad, including repositioning its satellites to provide it with real-time intelligence.Both India and Pakistan are expected to make high-level addresses at the Shangri-La Dialogue this weekend while the US and others will be looking for ways to prevent a repeat of their clash over Kashmir.
Is the US still a reliable ally?
All of this is happening in a dramatically changed US context.Donald Trump's sudden imposition of trade tariffs, while eventually modified, has caused many in the region to rethink their reliance on Washington. Would an ally that is prepared to inflict so much economic pain on its friends really come to their aid if they were attacked?China has been quick to capitalise on the confusion. It reached out to neighbours such as Vietnam - a country it went to war with in 1979 - to point out the People's Republic represented stability and continuity in an unstable world.Under the previous US administration, Washington signed up to a multi-billion dollar trilateral partnership between the US, UK and Australia under the acronym of Aukus.It aims to not only build Canberra's next generation of submarines but to guarantee freedom of navigation across the South China Sea using intelligence and naval force deployed by the three nations.President Trump, when asked in February about his commitment to the AUKUS pact, appeared not to recognise the term, asking in reply: "What does that mean?"But early this Saturday morning the US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth will be addressing the Shangri-La Dialogue, potentially offering some clarity on AUKUS as well as how the US plans to work with, and quite possibly against, China's interests across the Asia-Pacific region.