Wild ride for Liberal MP Dan Tehan from potentially losing seat to possible leader

Australia Broadcast Center

04-05-2025

When the polls closed on Saturday evening, many pundits and pollsters predicted senior Liberal party MP Dan Tehan might lose his 15-year hold over the south-west Victorian electorate of Wannon.
Within a matter of hours and a stunning reversal of fortune, his name was in the mix to lead the Liberals.
It was expected to be a nail-biting race in Wannon, with pre-election polls suggesting a few hundred votes might decide whether the incumbent Mr Tehan would serve a sixth term, or independent candidate Alex Dyson would up-end the historically safe Liberal seat.
Election essentials:
Counting is still underway, but the shadow minister for immigration and citizenship is projected to hold Wannon by a margin of about 3.5 per cent.
As the Liberal party seeks a new leader following Peter Dutton's shock loss to Labor's Ali France in the seat of Dickson, a number of media outlets are reporting Mr Tehan is a real contender for the top Liberal job.
So how did Mr Tehan go from being tipped to lose his seat to being discussed as a possible opposition leader?
And is he a serious challenger for the gig, or is it simply a matter of there being so few senior Coalition MPs left after Labor's wipe-out federal election win?
The campaign
Wannon voter Tim Reesink volunteered for the Tehan campaign, hanging up corflutes and handing out how-to-vote cards on election day.
Tim Reesink was relieved and excited the long-time MP would continue representing Wannon.
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Supplied: Tim Reesink
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Mr Reesink said he believed Mr Tehan was able to win a sixth term because his approach to politics reflected the priorities and values of Wannon voters.
"I think, over the course of the campaign, people might have realised that Dan Tehan is a bit understated and likes to serve people in the background," he said.
"I was overwhelmed by how many people I spoke to who had such a positive impression of Dan Tehan because he had visited their club and supported them and remembered them from previous interactions.
"Often that's not public, so people don't see that he's doing these things.
"But when it comes to voting they realised that actually he is a fantastic local MP."
Australian National University political marketing lecturer Andrew Hughes said he believed Mr Tehan's old-fashioned campaigning, including meet-and-greets, doorknocking and attending community events, was key to his success in Wannon, in contrast to the Coalition's national defeat.
"He's probably one of the hardest-working candidates this election to keep his seat — Alex Dyson threw everything at taking that seat," Mr Hughes said.
Mr Tehan beat eight other candidates to keep the Wannon seat.
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ABC News: Emily Bissland
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While Mr Tehan was campaigning hard on the ground, his party also spent big to keep the seat.
In the lead-up to the federal election, local media reported the Liberal party was on track to splash about $750,000 on the Wannon campaign, about five times more than the usual spend.
While the independent candidate also ran a grassroots campaign, Mr Hughes said the entrenched voter support for the Liberal party in south-west Victoria was ultimately too much for an independent to overcome.
Pamphlets dropped in mailboxes included AI imagery of Mr Dyson, depicting him as a closet Greens candidate.
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ABC News: Olivia Sanders
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The Liberal campaign also played into some community fears that Mr Dyson was a Greens candidate in disguise, with residents bombarded with anti-Dyson flyers even months before the election was called.
Mr Hughes said the 13 per cent swing towards Mr Dyson might indicate people were embracing positive and aspirational campaigning.
"People are being turned off by negative campaigning," he said.
"They understand it's part and parcel of politics, but that doesn't mean we accept or like it."
Rebuilding after 'earthquake' result
Photo shows
A composite image of Andrew Hastie, Sussan Ley, Angus Taylor and Dan Tehan
The loss of Peter Dutton's seat has forced the question of his replacement.
While Mr Tehan is considered a
"I haven't had any time to think about the future," Mr Tehan told the ABC.
"
You need time to consider, time to think and get an understanding of what has occurred.
"
Mr Hughes said the Liberal Party needed to rethink its messaging, policy, and leadership following the opposition's poor election result.
"It's earthquake stuff," he said.
"It wasn't just one state or area that went hard against the Coalition — it was everywhere."
Mr Hughes said he did not believe Mr Tehan was a good choice to lead the Liberals, as the party needed to distance itself from the 2025 election outcome to show voters it was listening.
Peter Dutton delivers his concession speech at the 2025 election with his family by his side.
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ABC News: Matt Roberts
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"Dan Tehan might be too closely linked to Peter Dutton to be able to get that," Mr Hughes said.
"But he would be a steady pair of hands if he was leader."
Mr Hughes said the party should consider a younger, potentially female, leader in order to have a shot at winning government.
"[Tehan] might be good as a deputy leader, but they still need to change their leadership structure and style,"
he said.
"They have to rebuild, reconnect, and re-strategise — that's harder to do with an existing person, and easier to do with a new person."
Photo shows
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Deakin University senior politics lecturer Geoff Robinson said it would be a judgement call within the Liberal party as to whether Mr Tehan would make a good leader.
"People thought that Peter Dutton had leadership potential, but he failed badly at the electoral test," Mr Robinson said.
He said while Mr Tehan's experience and positive performance in the Wannon electorate made him a safe choice to lead the opposition, his name had likely been thrown in the ring only because of the lack of senior MPs in the Liberal party ranks.
"He's very much a generic Liberal who's been able to hold a variety of portfolios. I don't think he stands out as a tremendous talent,"
Mr Robinson said.
"I'm not sure if he has the ability or the talent to bring the party back from the wilderness."
Mr Robinson said rebuilding the party would require a total rethink of policy and approach, and the Liberals could be tempted to elect Sussan Ley as their first female leader to symbolise these changes.

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