Iron ore markets head for shake-up as Singapore-linked Simandou nears production
[SINGAPORE] Global iron ore trade is facing a pivotal shift as Simandou, a massive iron ore mine in Guinea being developed by a Singapore conglomerate, is about to ramp up supply of the ferrous mineral.
Estimated at 2.4 billion tonnes of high-grade iron ore as one of the world's richest untapped deposits, and projected to start production by end-2025, Simandou is a strategic project for China as it aims to diversify its suppliers from Australia and Brazil – the two countries together accounting for about 80 per cent of seaborne iron ore exports.
As a long-anticipated supply disruptor, the project is closely monitored by the iron ore industry, which is also betting on India to absorb demand lost in China, based on panel discussions during Singapore International Ferrous Week.
Two blocks of the mining concession are being developed by Winning Consortium Simandou (WCS), a joint venture led by Singapore-based mine-to-shipping conglomerate Winning International Group. This is in partnership with China Shandong Weiqiao Group and state-owned China Baowu Steel Group.
The remaining two blocks are under a Simfer joint venture, led by British-Australian mining giant Rio Tinto, in partnership with China's Chalco Iron Ore, and the Guinea government.
At full capacity, the mine is projected to produce up to 120 million tonnes of high-grade iron ore (about 65 per cent iron content) annually.
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Trade implications
Cheong Jin Yu, head of Baltic Exchange Asia, told The Business Times that Baltic Exchange is keeping an eye on the development of Simandou as a key force to change trade routes of iron ore.
'What I would imagine would happen is that, if and when Simandou becomes a consistent supplier into the iron ore market, the (Baltic Exchange's) advisory council will tell us it's time to start pricing a route out of. So it will be a West Africa-to-China route,' he said.
He added that once an index is established, the exchange would then develop different tools such as futures for the new index for market players to manage freight volatilities.
The impact of Simandou's supply on key iron ore routes such as China-Australia hinges on actual cargo flows, Cheong said, with markets awaiting clarity.
Vamsi Goutam, chief commercial officer of Tata Steel Minerals Canada, said during a panel that Simandou's supply could push up volumes and potentially freight rates in the Atlantic trades.
He expects 'freight balancing' as shipping capacity might not pick up at the same rate as the steep increase in dry bulk volume.
De-risking for iron ore producers
The expected influx of high-grade iron ore from Simandou might worsen an oversupply situation as China's demand growth softens, which would put more pressure on iron ore producers.
'A lot of producers who are high on the cost curves will come under pressure,' said Claire Chong, senior analyst of Thurlestone Shipping, noting that their operational resilience will come into play.
Francois Lavoie, senior vice-president of sales of technical market and product development at Champion Iron, said that as Simandou is 'mixing things up', small producers such as Champion Iron are trying to diversify offerings as part of their de-risk strategy.
This includes converting production into iron ore of even higher grades and lower impurities, he noted.
India's rising appetite
Baltic Exchange's Cheong noted that the industry is also monitoring how iron ore imports to India would evolve, as the second-largest steel producer in the world ramps up its production.
Paul Bartholomew, lead analyst of S&P Global Commodity Insights, noted that India is expected to emerge as a major iron ore importer, with the import forecast in 2026 to more than double from 2024's imports.
However, Thurlestone Shipping's Chong noted that despite a rising projection, India's iron ore imports are still 'too small to compare with China's'.
While India's iron ore import is expected to hit more than 130 million tonnes, China's iron ore imports are projected to stay above 1.1 billion tonnes to 2035, S&P Global indicated.
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ST PHOTO: ARIFFIN JAMAR Mr Chua Tiang Hee, 74, owner of Fosters Steakhouse, believes the new developments - One Holland Village, which opened in December 2023, and Holland Piazza, launched in 2018 on the site of a former mall that featured an iconic windmill at the top - have diluted the area's uniqueness, making it more like other neighbourhoods with malls housing familiar retail chains. In the past, "Holland Village had this indescribable charm", Mr Chua recalls. Fosters Steakhouse, located in Holland Avenue, had outdoor seating surrounded by greenery. "It fits my concept of building an English greenhouse restaurant perfectly. I would sit outside, watching the trees and feeling as though I am not in Singapore." The British-themed restaurant moved out in October 2022 and reopened three months later, as a modest cafe tucked inside YewTee Point. But in just two years, Mr Chua closed the business for good. 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A spokesperson for the SLA says it proactively seeks innovative ways to further unlock the potential of state-managed properties. On top of rental prices, tender proposals are also evaluated based on their creativity, contribution to the precinct's vibrancy and incorporation of green and sustainable initiatives. The goal is to enhance community engagement and ensure Chip Bee Gardens remains interesting and relevant to the evolving lifestyles of both locals and international visitors. Terraced houses and walk-up apartments in Chip Bee Gardens are state properties managed by the Singapore Land Authority and are let out on a two-year lease via open tenders. ST PHOTO: ARIFFIN JAMAR Another business that has adapted to the changes is Joo Ann Foh. Nestled within Holland Road Shopping Centre, it has evolved significantly since it was established as a Chinese medicinal hall in 1906. In the 1960s when the British military forces moved into the area, the medicinal hall expanded its offerings to include daily goods and provisions for the new community. This continued until the 1990s, when the second generation took over, turning it into a photography and printing service shop. "The only constant in Holland Village is change," says Mr Kenneth Ng, 48, a third-generation owner. "It's not something we love, but something we have learnt to accommodate." His younger brother Adam, 46, weighs in: "We are doing our best to keep the business going because our customers already see us as part of Holland Village... they trust us, and they recommend us to their friends." Holland Village used to have a laid-back feel, he reminisces. There were shops selling rattan goods, antiques and party supplies - quirky, niche places that made the area special. "These unique offerings drew people in," he says. Brothers Adam Ng (left) and Kenneth Ng are the third-generation owners of Joo Ann Foh. ST PHOTO: TARYN NG "Now, whatever you find here... you can find elsewhere. There is nothing exclusive here to generate foot traffic." While they understand why landlords lease spaces to big-name chains with deep pockets, they believe this is neither sustainable nor beneficial for the neighbourhood. "We need to take a broader view," says Mr Kenneth Ng. "Imagine: Thambi now reopens at the front of One Holland Village. It is just a modest magazine stand, but it is also a beloved local landmark. So why not consider lowering the rent to bring in more businesses like this to make this place special?" The Ng brothers anticipate further shifts in the area's dynamics following the completion of the mixed-use development. "It is too early to say exactly how things will change, but we will see a new wave of residents moving in, and the office tower will be filled as well," says Mr Kenneth Ng. A family photo taken at Joo Ann Foh's original shop in Holland Avenue in the 1980s. A section of the shop carried photography-related products, while another section offered daily provisions. Seen here are business founder Ng Chin Wah (with glasses), second-generation owner Paul Ng and his wife Irene Mah, and the couple's young sons Kenneth Ng (left) and Adam Ng. PHOTO: COURTESY OF JOO ANN FOH Ms Clara Ong, who has a pet corgi with her boyfriend, were regulars at One Holland Village when it first opened as they were attracted by its pet-friendly appeal, but their visits have since tapered off. "Most stores still require pets to be in carriers or strollers and many restaurants allow them only in the outdoor seating areas," the 29-year-old marketing executive explains. "We usually end up going elsewhere like East Coast Park or places with more open space and a more relaxed vibe for pets." Ms Ong remembers Holland Village as a place once known for its hidden gems. "Now, it feels too commercial." Giving the space a chance If uncertainty breeds opportunity, it might explain why Mr Lee Joon Peng, 45, took a leap of faith three years ago in setting up That Wine Place - a restaurant-bar and wine academy - at 261 Holland Avenue. The very same address once housed Palm's Wine Bar, one of the first restaurant-bars in Holland Village, which helped shape its vibrant drinking and dining culture in the 1980s. A 1988 photo of Palm's Wine Bar (right), one of the first restaurant-bars in Holland Village. It helped shape the enclave's vibrant drinking and dining culture. The site is now home to That Wine Place. PHOTO: ST FILE Opening That Wine Place was a blend of two passions - his wife's nostalgic fondness for Holland Village and his love affair with wine bars. "Holland Village used to be very chill," Mr Lee recounts, sharing that his wife often lunched here during her PhD days at NUS. Meanwhile, his regular business trips to Taiwan exposed him to the island's buzzing wine bar culture, which inspired him with its warmth and charm. However, what began as a promising venture has become increasingly difficult to sustain. "Seriously, I also want to know why people are not coming to Holland Village," Mr Lee says. The busiest times are typically the first and last weeks of each month. "Midweek is usually quiet, we don't see many people, not even on the road," he adds. Mr Lee believes the slowdown is part of a broader shift across Singapore's food and beverage (F&B) industry. "We see the closure of many dining places. For wine, in particular, people are no longer buying them in Singapore, they would prefer to do it overseas." At the same time, diners are spoilt for choice and rising inflation has made them more price-conscious. It is little wonder, he adds, that some businesses are pulling out of Holland Village altogether or choosing to open second outlets closer to the city centre. Mr Lee Joon Peng says opening That Wine Place was a blend of two passions - his wife's nostalgic fondness for Holland Village and his own love affair with wine bars. ST PHOTO: JASON QUAH "Most of our customers here are families or couples. At most, they will open one bottle, maybe two," Mr Lee explains. "If I have an outlet in town, I could cater to business meetings and company events where we would sell more. Holland Village could do so much better if we manage to attract the office crowds from the nearby Star Vista area." Like other business owners, Mr Lee feels that the newer developments do not blend well with the character of the original Holland Village, and more importantly, that they lack a strong pull factor. One Holland Village may attract pet owners as a casual hangout, with a few go-to spots like Surrey Hills Grocer or Fireplace by Bedrock, he says. But beyond that, people come and go, and the crowds do not spill over. "I don't see it's a place that will bring more people in here... because there is nothing new and exciting to make them think, 'Oh, I need to come back again.'" That's why he calls his business venture a bit of a gamble. "It is a 'hit or miss'," he admits. "This place is not making a profit, but we are fortunate to have a reasonable landlord. I also believe F&B is the kind of business where you nurture and invest for the long run." One visitor who finds Holland Village worth discovering is Mr Maro, an Italian business consultant who has been visiting Singapore frequently since 2017. While the area does not draw the kind of crowds he sees at Orchard Road, he believes that has not affected the quality of what is on offer. "I still remember my first visit here - it was to 2am: dessertbar. The level of creativity and finesse in the desserts was something I had not seen elsewhere," says the 57-year-old, who did not give his full name. Lorong Mambong, home to a cluster of bars and restaurants. While Holland Village may not buzz with the same energy as Orchard Road, it has not affected the quality of what is on offer, says a regular visitor. ST PHOTO: TARYN NG More recently, he dined at Le Bon Funk and was equally impressed by its curated wine list. "I cannot speak about what Holland Village used to be, but there are some seriously high-calibre restaurants here - if you know, you know." Can Holland Village be revived? Mr Lee believes Holland Village still holds a lot of untapped potential. One idea is to spruce up Holland Village Park just outside That Wine Place. Outdoor seating, for example, could make the space more inviting without obstructing foot traffic. "I once spent an evening under those trees with my friends," Mr Lee recalls. "The breeze, the vibe, everything just felt perfect - like the old Holland Village coming back all over." He adds: "If we have more places like that, where people could sit, relax and unwind in the space... it could create a brand-new reason for people to stay longer and keep coming back." Mr Lee hopes outdoor seating can be added to the communal space in front of his restaurant-bar. ST PHOTO: JASON QUAH Some other tenants in Chip Bee Gardens told ST that they have been asking for a sheltered walkway linking the MRT station to the shops for a few years. Instead, they were offered a piecemeal solution: the option of installing standardised clear shelters in front of each store. But the tenants worry these static structures will create new problems - collecting leaves, heating up under the sun and making outdoor seating uncomfortable. Summing up the general frustration, Mr Hadley says: "If Holland Village is a brand, then right now, no one is managing it." Mr Lee adds that the lack of serious discussion about the area's commercial direction is hurting businesses and customers alike. As for Mr Quan, he believes the area needs better curation. "Many of the stores here are service-based. If you were a tourist or a local from another neighbourhood, would you come all the way to visit a dentist, a pet shop, a pilates studio or a kitchen supply store? Probably not." But he acknowledges the other side of the coin. "They have been here for 10, 20 years and their loyal customers keep them going. The question then becomes: Should Holland Village be a hub for services or a place for unique small local businesses?" For the Ng brothers, the answer lies in embracing Singapore's retail heritage. Business owners believe there is a lack of serious discussion about the area's commercial direction, and that if Holland Village is a brand, no one is managing it at the moment. ST PHOTO: TAYRN NG "Some people don't even realise we have been around for so long," says Mr Kenneth Ng. "Others come in and tell us they are third-generation customers. That says a lot." He is committed to business growth, but says there is only so much he and his brother can do. He notes that even some popular home-grown names, like Charles & Keith and TWG, had to reinvent themselves to survive. "They have gone international and polished up their image, but they don't feel local any more," he observes. "They are selling a lifestyle, an idea, rather than holding on to their original identity. "It seems like this is the reality for local brands - you either pivot, sell the business or franchise, or you risk getting left behind." Ms Chan says the perception of local brands has changed over the past decade. More Singaporeans now embrace them for their thoughtful design and small-batch craftsmanship. Ironically, this has led to fewer home-grown brands eyeing Holland Village. "In the past, when there was little awareness of supporting local brands, it was hard for them to enter major shopping malls, so they turned to niche areas like Holland Village. Now, many malls open their doors to local brands, promising them better foot traffic and visibility," she says. "So, where do the local brands prefer to be - there or here?" Still, some believe there is room for revival - and it may lie in collaboration. Mr Hadley suggests establishing a merchant association to give business owners a platform to voice concerns, propose improvements and initiate partnerships with others in the neighbourhood. Past efforts fell through due to disagreements between small businesses and franchise operators, which he believes could be resolved by a neutral body - likely a government body - with a clear mandate to represent all parties. Mr Lee has already teamed up with nearby Wala Wala Cafe Bar to run cross-promotions: buy a specific wine at one venue, get perks at the other. "These are the kinds of ideas that bring energy back to the village," he says. "Business owners should be brainstorming together: What do people want and how can we offer it? These innovations will only make Holland Village more lively and exciting." At Bynd Artisan's 10th anniversary party, Ms Chan had a poignant exchange with her mother, who asked why she was celebrating the closure of the Chip Bee Gardens outlet. Her reply? "Because there is beauty in difficult moments." Ms Chan believes such times are exactly when resilient entrepreneurs shine - finding creativity in chaos and growth in challenge. "Running a business involves more than sentiments. We may not always know how things will turn out, so this chaos - unexpected and demanding as it is - is something we have learnt to relish."
