FBI Mishandled Investigating Congressional Baseball Shooting, House Committee Finds
The FBI mishandled its investigation of the 2017 shooting at a GOP practice one day before the annual Congressional Baseball Game—including not calling the incident domestic terrorism and not interviewing key figures, according to a report released on May 6 by the House Intelligence Committee.
Committee Chairman Rick Crawford (R-Ark.) criticized the FBI for withholding the report.
'There's no reasonable or acceptable explanation for why the FBI stonewalled the committee for so long,' he said during a press conference.
'In fact, it's taken so long to get this case file, many of those members at the field on that fateful day are no longer in Congress.'
The
Scalise was shot in the hip and seriously wounded, requiring several surgeries and a lengthy recovery.
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Former Rep. Mo Brooks (R-Ala.) was not interviewed despite being at the scene during the shooting.
The shooter, James Hodgkinson, was shot and killed by Capitol Police, who were already on the scene due to Scalise's presence as he was a member of House GOP leadership and therefore afforded a security detail.
The report also found that the bureau did not come up with a timeline of events surrounding the shooting.
Additionally, it said that the FBI incorrectly deemed the shooting was 'suicide by cop' instead of domestic terrorism.
In the
The Intelligence Committee report criticized the press release, saying it failed to include information that would have contracted the 'suicide by cop' narrative.
'To commit suicide by cop, the perpetrator needs to demonstrate hostile intent in the presence of police. In this case, there were no observable police officers present,' according to the report, which noted that the officers were dressed in plain clothes.
Instead, Hodgkinson's motive was 'to impact government policy or the political system by targeting Republicans,' the committee found.
Hodgkinson had a far-left motivation behind the shooting as he sought to kill GOP members of Congress, the report determines.
It said that the FBI's 'conclusions failed to follow the facts, as it reached an unsupported conclusion without completing even the most basic of investigative activities.'
Moreover, the FBI's 'intelligence analysis of Hodgkinson's communications, activities, and behaviors, and associations is strained and logically flawed,' according to the report.
As an example, the FBI cited that Hodgkinson's brother believed that the aim of the shooting was for Hodgkinson to die by suicide by cop.
However, this was merely an opinion and not based on any communications, according to the report.
Another flaw in the FBI's probe, according to the report, was stating that Hodgkinson's list of GOP congressmen was not a 'hit list.'
The list named six people with physical descriptions for each, including size or weight: Brooks, former Reps. Jeff Duncan (R-S.C.) and Trent Franks (R-Ariz.); and Reps. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), Morgan Griffith (R-Va.), and Scott DesJarlais (R-Tenn.).
The FBI at the time, said that Hodgkinson's search history included only two names.
The report points out that this is a false premise since there is more than one way to create a hit list, and therefore it does not have to be done by conducting online searches of targets.
Furthermore, it's factually inaccurate since the case file shows that Hodgkinson did do web searches for all six congressmen on the list.
Scalise was made aware of the report by the committee, according to Crawford, who declined to elaborate as he did not want to speak on Scalise's behalf.
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15 minutes ago
- Politico
Mike Crapo's megabill Mission: Impossible
Presented by IN TODAY'S EDITION:— What we expect on tax policy this week— Johnson's rescissions problem— The impact of Graham's Russia sanctions It's shaping up to be an enormously consequential week for President Donald Trump's legislative agenda, and there's one lawmaker at the center of it all: Senate Finance Chair Mike Crapo. This morning we're going to zoom in on the Idaho Republican and his mammoth to-do list, which includes resolving make-or-break fights over tax policy, Medicaid cuts and clean-energy credits. (Benjamin is out with an even deeper dive that our POLITICO Pro readers got first on Sunday.) The soft-spoken Crapo has been stealthily working to coordinate changes to the 'big, beautiful' bill. It's looking like he won't release his committee's piece of the package until next week, with several outstanding policy issues unresolved. Senate Finance is expected to begin going through bill text with members and staff beginning today, and Crapo is expected to brief the broader Senate Republican conference mid-week. 'We're working as aggressively as we can to move as fast as we can,' Crapo says. Crapo's leaning on a cadre of trusted advisers. Finance staff director Gregg Richard, chief tax counsel Courtney Connell and deputy chief tax counsel Randy Herndon are among his critical staff on the bill. Crapo is known for his spare words — trust us, we've tried to get more out of him — but also for his history of landing deals. One of his biggest wins was the 2018 law that eased the Dodd-Frank banking law — an effort that required bringing along Democrats to help serve up a Trump administration victory. He also flexed as a deal-killer last year, blocking a tax revamp negotiated by House Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith and then-Senate Finance Chair Ron Wyden. Last year's clash soured the relationship between Crapo and Smith, yet the two have found a way to work together to deliver Trump's latest round of tax cuts. 'We've been communicating very closely so we each know what the other is thinking,' Crapo says. Now Crapo faces his biggest test yet as he tries to resolve Senate clashes over razor's edge deals that Smith and other top House Republicans struck to pass their version of the bill. Some of those conflicts are within Senate Finance itself, with Sen. Thom Tillis pushing for changes to 'no tax on tips' and Sen. James Lankford wanting to scale back planned endowment taxes on private universities. Crapo's personal priority? He is the leading advocate for using a legislative accounting method known as current policy baseline that would treat the extension of Trump's 2017 tax cuts as costing nothing. This is a big flash point between him and fiscal hardliners. If he succeeds in the Senate, Crapo's compromise will have to survive the House. Some top House Republicans are urging him to go easy on them. 'Mike Crapo is a brilliant senator and he's instrumental on the tax stuff and everything else. You got to respect his opinion,' Majority Whip Tom Emmer tells Mia. 'But at the end of the day, I hope they leave it right where it's at.' Look for other Senate committees to release their megabill text this week: HELP and Energy on Tuesday; Agriculture on Wednesday; and Homeland Security and Judiciary on Thursday, according to our latest intel. Agriculture text though may slide to later this week or possibly into next week as several governors are now raising concerns about plans for federal food aid. GOOD MONDAY MORNING. Follow our live coverage at the Inside Congress blog at and email your Inside Congress scribes at bguggenheim@ mmccarthy@ lkashinsky@ and bleonard@ THE SKED The House is in session. Members are set to vote on resolutions denouncing the Boulder, Colo. terrorist attack and renaming the House Press Gallery the 'Frederick Douglass Press Gallery' at 6:30 p.m. — Rules will have a hearing on the HALT Fentanyl Act and a bill that would prohibit non-citizens from voting in Washington at 4 p.m. — Appropriations will hold a subcommittee markup for the fiscal 2026 DHS funding bill at 6 p.m. Bill text released Sunday night would provide DHS with $66.4 billion but doesn't have big increases for the department's immigration agencies as Republicans pursue billions for border security in the budget reconciliation bill. — House Republican and Democratic leadership will hold private meetings shortly before evening votes. The Senate is in session and voting on Brett Shumate's nomination to be an assistant attorney general and to end debate on David Fotouhi's nomination to be deputy administrator of the EPA at 5:30 p.m. — Senate Republican and Democratic leadership will hold private meetings shortly before evening votes. The rest of the week: The House will take up the rescissions package, HALT Fentanyl Act and immigration legislation targeting D.C. The Senate will work through Trump's nominations, including Stephen Vaden to be deputy secretary of Agriculture and Andrew Hughes to be deputy secretary of HUD. THE LEADERSHIP SUITE Johnson's rescissions problem House GOP leaders are planning a vote Thursday on a rescissions bill that would claw back $9.4 billion in funds Congress has approved for foreign aid and public broadcasting. But there's a new problem for Speaker Mike Johnson — at least 10 moderate Republicans have privately said they currently oppose the legislation, four people with direct knowledge tell Meredith Lee Hill. The holdouts have raised concerns about the impact of the cuts and questioned whether it's appropriate to let the White House slash funding that lawmakers approved. Johnson's leadership circle thinks they can flip the no votes and muscle the package through the floor this week. The first stop is the Rules Committee Tuesday. LA immigration clashes hit the Hill's agenda Escalating confrontations between law enforcement and protesters in Los Angeles over federal immigration policy are quickly being felt on Capitol Hill after Trump mobilized the National Guard to respond. Sen. Lindsey Graham and Stephen Miller, the deputy White House chief of staff, are among the GOP lawmakers and Trump administration officials using the clashes to call for passing the megabill to bolster immigration enforcement. Congressional Hispanic Caucus members talked through the situation in an emergency meeting late Sunday, our Nicholas Wu reports. And look for the issue to come up at tonight's House Appropriations subcommittee on DHS funding, which includes immigration enforcement. Johnson doubts Musk's megabill sway Johnson told ABC's 'This Week' on Sunday that he has texted with Elon Musk but not spoken with him since last Monday. But the speaker didn't appear worried about Musk's meltdown over the 'big, beautiful' bill. He said Republicans haven't received many constituent calls urging votes against the bill over Musk's complaints. Trump is warning Musk to back off of Congress, telling NBC News that he would face 'serious consequences' if he funds Democrats to run against Republicans who support the megabill. Sen. Cory Booker told NBC that he won't accept campaign contributions from Musk, but that the billionaire should 'get involved … in a more substantive way' against the budget reconciliation bill. ICYMI: House Republicans are making clear that they're sticking with Trump over Musk, Meredith reports with Hailey Fuchs and Ben Jacobs. 'Frankly, it's united Republicans even more to go and defend the great things that are in this bill — and once it's passed and signed into law by August, September, you're going to see this economy turning around like nothing we've ever seen,' House Majority Leader Steve Scalise said in an interview Friday. Stefanik returns to Intel Rep. Elise Stefanik, the chair of House Republican Leadership, is back on House Intelligence, where she served since 2017 before losing the assignment when she was tapped to be UN ambassador. To make the move work, the House is adding Democratic Rep. Steve Cohen to the panel rather than removing another Republican. POLICY RUNDOWN BANKING'S BYRD TEST — Senate Banking Chair Tim Scott is out with his panel's contribution to the GOP's megabill, amid concerns from his own Republican members that several provisions won't be allowed under Senate budget reconciliation rules, our Katherine Hapgood reports. A plan to zero out CFPB funding could run into problems with the so-called Byrd, which restricts proposals that have a negligible budget impact. ANOTHER CRAPO PROBLEM — Thirteen House Republicans led by Rep. Jen Kiggans are urging Senate leaders to rescue clean energy tax credits that the House-passed version of the GOP megabill would phase down, Kelsey Brugger reports. Most of the lawmakers supported the bill on the House floor. 'We believe the Senate now has a critical opportunity to restore common sense and deliver a truly pro-energy growth final bill that protects taxpayers while also unleashing the potential of U.S. energy producers, manufacturers, and workers,' they wrote to Crapo and Senate Majority Leader John Thune. THE IMPACT OF GRAHAM'S RUSSIA SANCTIONS — Graham's bipartisan bill to impose 'crushing' sanctions on Russia would cut the U.S. off from some of the world's largest economies with 500 percent tariffs on any country that buys Russian energy our Amy Mackinnon reports. Graham is proposing new carve-outs for countries that provide aid to Ukraine — a big help to the European Union — but some experts remain skeptical. The Trump administration is trying to get Graham to weaken the legislation, The Wall Street Journal reports. In the House, Pennsylvania Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick is holding off pursuing a discharge petition to force action on similar legislation, preferring to wait for the Senate to pass the bill, three people with direct knowledge of the plans told Meredith. Best of POLITICO Pro and E&E: CAMPAIGN STOP MEDICAID ADS FLOOD SWING DISTRICTS — TV spots mentioning Medicaid have already run in more Republican-held districts this year than they did all of last cycle as Democrats look to use GOP's proposed cuts to the program as a campaign cudgel, according to a new analysis from our Jessica Piper, Elena Schneider and Holly Otterbein. STOP US IF YOU'VE HEARD THIS ONE — Texas Republicans' messy Senate primary between Sen. John Cornyn and state Attorney General Ken Paxton is giving Democrats hope of finally flipping the Lone Star State, Nicholas and Liz Crampton report. Their logic: Paxton is leading Cornyn in polls, including, as Ben reports, among those who identify themselves as part of the 'Trump movement.' Democrats believe a Paxton general-election candidacy could divide Republicans and potentially even sway some to support a Democrat. But first Democrats need a viable candidate. Former Reps. Colin Allred and Beto O'Rourke have signaled interest in another bid, but some Democrats want the party to look elsewhere. Rep. Joaquin Castro is looking at the race, while Rep. Marc Veasey ruled out a run. TUNNEL TALK BABBITT SETTLEMENT — The Trump administration will pay a nearly $5 million settlement in the lawsuit over the wrongful death of Ashli Babbitt, who was killed by a U.S. Capitol Police officer after storming the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, our Ali Bianco reports. Lawyers reached an agreement last month for a settlement, but no final deal was publicly disclosed until Friday. LIBRARY OF CONGRESS MOVES — Acting Librarian of Congress Robert Newlen is making personnel moves while the institution's leadership remains in limbo after Trump's attempted takeover last month, our Katherine Tully-McManus writes in. Edward Jablonski will serve as senior adviser to the acting librarian and was previously the library's chief operating officer. The COO role will be filled by Roberto A. Salazar, who's been serving in an acting capacity since March 3. Jablonski is a Navy veteran who has been at the Library since 2006. Salazar was appointed by President George W. Bush to serve as national administrator of the USDA Food and Nutrition Services — but before that he was a Senate Page. Former Librarian of Congress Carla Hayden spoke to CBS over the weekend about her firing by Trump. She said no one from the White House has talked to her directly, besides the brief email she received about her termination. THE BEST OF THE REST Breaking With Trump, Bacon Says He Won't Follow His Party 'Off the Cliff', from Annie Karni at The New York Times MTG flirts with Georgia governor bid, from Greg Bluestein at the Atlanta Journal-Constitution Republicans and Economists at Odds Over Whether Megabill Will Spur Growth Boom, from Richard Rubin at The Wall Street Journal CAPITOL HILL INFLUENCE Jason McMahon will join Valinor Enterprises to build out its federal strategy and government relations efforts. He previously was a professional staff member on the Senate Appropriations Committee. JOB BOARD Kevin Orellana will be a legislative assistant for Rep. Vince Fong, handling his financial services portfolio. He previously was a legislative aide for Rep. Young Kim. Gavin Proffitt is now a health policy adviser for Sen. Ron Johnson. He previously was a health policy adviser for the House Energy and Commerce Committee. Julianne Heberlein is now a speechwriter and press adviser for Sen. Deb Fischer. She previously was comms director for Rep. Rob Wittman and is a Larry Hogan alum. Chelsea Blink is now legislative director for Rep. Lauren Underwood. She previously was director of farm animal legislation at the ASPCA. Reedy Newton is now director of operations for Rep. Russell Fry. She previously was scheduler for Sen. Tim Scott and is a NRSC alum. Martina McLennan is now director of policy comms for economic and health policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center. She previously was comms director for Sen. Jeff Merkley. Emily Druckman is now comms director and senior adviser for Rep. Kim Schrier. She most recently was communications director for the National Electrical Manufacturers Association and formerly led comms for Rep. Marc Veasey. HAPPY BIRTHDAY Former Rep. Kendra Horn … Ray Salazar of House Minority Whip Katherine Clark's office … Joe Curl … Susannah Luthi … Margaret Talev … Liz Mair … Yonathan Teclu of Rep. Ilhan Omar's office … DSCC's Laura Matthews … Jess O'Connell of NEWCO Strategies … Dante Atkins … Candi Wolff of Citi … Ria Strasser-Galvis … Alexandra Toma … Lori Lodes of Climate Power … Democracy Forward's Skye Perryman … Daniel Rankin of Rep. Don Bacon's office … Aryele Bradford of Rep. Shomari Figures' office … Zac Petkanas … Semafor's Sara Amin TRIVIA FRIDAY'S ANSWER: Albert Wolf correctly answered that Rep. Laura Gillen was a scuba instructor in Thailand before she came to Congress. TODAY'S QUESTION, from Mia: The Declaration of Independence painting in the Capitol Rotunda is painted by which American painter? How many paintings does this painter have on display in the Rotunda? The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Inside Congress. Send your answers to insidecongress@
Politico
15 minutes ago
- Politico
The stealth Senate dealmaker who could deliver Trump's tax cuts
Some of the most critical components of President Donald Trump's agenda are in the hands of a soft-spoken senator from Idaho who behind closed doors is one of Capitol Hill's most calculating dealmakers. Senate Finance Chair Mike Crapo is rushing to finalize his panel's portion of his party's massive legislative centerpiece. He could begin briefing colleagues on bill text as soon as Monday, according to a person granted anonymity to share an evolving schedule —while three people aware of the state of negotiations say a full tax package may not be ready for release until early next week. That package needs to unite 51 Republicans in the Senate without alienating more than three GOP members of the House. The fate of vast Republican tax cuts enacted in 2017, and set to expire at the end of this year, hangs in the balance. In interviews throughout the past several weeks in the halls of the Senate, as he shuffled between meetings and votes flanked by trusted advisers, Crapo played his cards close to his vest. Asked about how he planned to make sure a trio of expiring business tax cuts are made permanent, he replied, 'I'm just not going to comment.' On whether the Senate would make tweaks to controversial House Medicaid language: 'We're working that right now. I'm not going to get into the details.' On how negotiations were going over whether to lower the House agreement to increase the cap on the state-and-local-tax deduction to $40,000: 'We're looking at the entire bill.' Crapo is known for his spare words, but also for his history of landing deals — and squashing ones he doesn't like, such as last year when he tanked a bipartisan tax bill negotiated by then-Finance Chair Ron Wyden and the chair of the House Ways and Means Committee, Jason Smith. At the same time, longtime colleagues and aides say Crapo can sometimes play the role of committee consensus-builder to his detriment — and he may have to put that tendency aside as the clock ticks down to the GOP's self-imposed July 4 deadline to send Trump his 'big, beautiful bill.' The question is now whether Crapo can help broker an agreement at this political moment when he has never presided over a policy battle with such high stakes. 'Mike Crapo is probably one of the three most well-respected members of the Republican caucus. People trust him. He listens. He tells you the truth. He tries to be inclusive, sometimes to a fault,' said Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) in an interview. 'He's quiet. He's really, really smart.' People who have worked closely with Crapo say he likes to slowly build agreement among his committee members, has seemingly infinite patience to work out issues and most likely won't take a position with Senate leadership until he feels like all of his fellow panel Republicans are on board. 'Crapo is a very thoughtful and deliberate lawmaker who has strong views on tax policy himself, but also who cares about what his committee members want,' said Joe Boddicker, a former tax counsel for Senate Finance Republicans under Crapo, now of the law firm Alston & Bird. 'He will try to incorporate the feedback from them, and he puts a high premium on that feedback … so it'll be a group product, one that reflects the viewpoints of the committee membership.' He has previously walked political tightropes to pull off difficult legislative wins. Among the most notable was in 2018, when, as chair of the Senate Banking Committee, Crapo crafted a rare bipartisan deal with red-state Democrats to loosen Dodd-Frank regulations on banks — the most significant overhaul of the rules since they were first created after the 2008 financial crisis. '[He] puts the time in on it. He's low-key, but he is a connector, a facilitator,' said Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.), who worked closely with Crapo on the banking overhaul. 'He doesn't need the spotlight, but he is very, very effective.' But Crapo is getting an earful from his members right now about what the tax portion of the GOP megabill should look like. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) wants to make the 'no tax on tips' proposal — a Trump campaign promise — more fair for blue-collar workers in certain industries. Meanwhile, Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.) wants to scale back a tier of new endowment taxes on private universities, a favorite proposal from House Ways and Means Republicans. Crapo is fielding a host of concerns from an ideologically diverse group of Senate Republicans, from moderate Susan Collins of Maine to conservative Josh Hawley of Missouri, who say they won't vote for a bill that could result in people losing Medicaid coverage. And then there's Sen. Ron Johnson, a Finance member who has warned he could vote against the megabill if Republicans don't commit to massive reductions in spending. At the same time, Crapo has shown in the past he's not afraid to stand up for his own interests. He surprised his House counterparts last year when he quietly killed the bipartisan tax deal crafted by Smith and Wyden. He opposed many of the policies, including an expansion of the Child Tax Credit. But while he didn't know then how the 2024 elections would shake out, stymying that deal also left the door open for the scenario in which Crapo now finds himself: able to run point on a more sweeping, and wholly partisan, tax overhaul exercise under a GOP governing trifecta. The fallout, however, also soured the relationship between Crapo and Smith. Yet the two men have found a new way to work closely together over the last few months to deliver Trump's biggest legislative priorities through the filibuster-skirting budget reconciliation process. 'I think part of the problem is that Wyden and Smith got together and Crapo didn't feel like he was a full partner,' said Finance Republican Sen. John Cornyn of Texas regarding the prior episode. Cornyn added that the current political conditions have necessitated an accord between the two lawmakers. They'll have to work together. Their two committees differ on the questions of business tax permanence — which would cost around half a trillion dollars to implement — and how high to cap the SALT deduction — which all Finance Republics want lowered. And there's continued disagreement over using an accounting tactic to essentially paper over around $3.8 trillion of extensions of Trump's tax cuts. Smith says he's in favor of the maneuver, but House hard-liners are extremely skeptical of the idea. Senate Republicans, including Crapo, want to keep it in place. 'We've been communicating very closely so we each know what the other is thinking,' 74-year-old Crapo, who has served in the Senate for more than three decades, said in an interview of his working relationship now with 44-year-old Smith, who was elected to the House in 2013 and has a reputation for being more outwardly pugnacious. 'We each know what the other's politics are in their caucus,' Crapo continued, 'and we're trying to keep ourselves in a situation where there are as few differences as possible.' A spokesperson for Smith did not respond to a request for comment about the House member's rapport with the senator. The partnership will come in handy as Crapo faces enormous pressure from other members of House GOP leadership, who are urging the Senate not to make so many changes to the House-passed bill that it will slow down the bill's final passage — if not derail the effort altogether. 'Mike Crapo is a brilliant senator and he's instrumental on the tax stuff and everything else. You got to respect his opinion. But at the end of the day, I hope they leave it right where it's at,' said House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) in an interview last week. Crapo, meanwhile, has expressed quiet confidence he will deliver a viable product — even as he deals with the competing demands of House leaders like Emmer, his fellow Finance Republicans and even the Senate parliamentarian, whose rulings could complicate his efforts. Asked recently about an anticipated parliamentary ruling on the accounting tactic, he managed to sum up his whole approach: 'I never declare victory until the game is over.' Jordain Carney and Mia McCarthy contributed to this report.
Politico
16 minutes ago
- Politico
How Trump broke the politics of Medicaid
Republicans used to cheer the possibility of Medicaid cuts. Now, as the GOP advances President Donald Trump's 'Big Beautiful Bill' that would reduce Medicaid spending, they're rebranding it as making the program stronger. The shift reflects the striking new politics of Medicaid — and how dramatically the GOP's coalition has changed under Trump. Now Democrats are hoping Medicaid could be the issue that exposes the cracks in the Trump coalition. They have seized on a nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimate that the bill would cause 7.8 million people to lose access to the low-income health insurance program. At stake is whether Democrats can start to win back working-class voters who have shifted toward the GOP over the past decade. Medicaid provides health insurance for nearly 80 million people but was long the electoral forgotten sibling of Social Security and Medicare. It's clear in the ads: TV ads for House and Senate races last election cycle were 26 times as likely to mention Medicare, the health care program for seniors, as Medicaid, according to a POLITICO analysis of transcripts from AdImpact, which tracks political advertising. But that's already changing. 'I saw elections 16 years ago where people ran on cutting Medicaid, and there were folks who were on Medicaid who were in the crowd cheering them on,' said Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, a potential Democratic candidate for president in 2028. 'That's not the case of where we are today.' The Medicaid provisions in the GOP's budget bill have prompted new debate even among Republicans. To Beshear and others, that provides an opening. Democrats, he said, should stand in front of hospitals and 'talk about how important Medicaid is,' he said, while emphasizing 'the impact on specific communities.' Congressional Democrats have seized on the issue, with moderates and progressives alike speaking in defense of the program. The party's House campaign arm is prioritizing Medicaid in swing-district messaging. And TV ads mentioning Medicaid have already run in more Republican-held districts this year than they did all of last cycle. Republicans are cautious, with an ideologically diverse group of senators wary of cuts and poised to exert significant influence over the bill. Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), who warned that cutting the program would be 'both morally wrong and politically suicidal,' said last week that Trump had promised him no cuts to benefits. GOP lawmakers have largely rallied around Trump's bill by arguing the House legislation protects Medicaid by only removing people who do not deserve it in the first place. That careful messaging is a stark difference from a decade ago, when congressional Republicans explicitly prioritized cutting Medicaid and governors blocked its expansion. One reason for the turnaround: A series of red states expanded Medicaid by ballot initiative between 2017 and 2020 — largely with backing of Democratic-aligned groups — and GOP voters defied their state and local political leaders in large numbers to support the program. Nationwide, enrollment for Medicaid and the Children's Health Insurance Program rose from just shy of 70 million in 2014 to nearly 79 million at the end of 2024. And at the same time more people were entering the program, including Republican voters in red states, an electoral realignment was shifting working-class voters toward Trump. 'Medicaid has a broader and broader appeal the more people that are on it, and the more people who know someone who's on it. That's incredibly powerful politically,' said Kelly Hall, executive director of the Fairness Project, which backed state Medicaid referendums. The makeup of Medicaid users was changing — and so were its politics. For a long time, the program has been relatively absent from federal races. Even in the 2018 midterms, when defending the Affordable Care Act was central to Democrats' midterm messaging, only 30 TV ads across all congressional elections mentioned Medicaid, while nearly 500 mentioned Medicare, POLITICO's analysis found. But Medicaid expansion was a major issue in many gubernatorial and state legislative races in the 2010s. The success of ballot measures proved the program had a strong constituency, even in red states. And Trump's popularity with working-class voters also reshaped the GOP's coalition. Compared to Republican candidates before him, Trump's 2024 gains were strongest in counties with high Medicaid enrollment, a POLITICO analysis found. In the 2024 election, 49 percent of Medicaid recipients voted for Trump compared to 47 percent for Kamala Harris, according to Morning Consult polling. That means cuts to Medicaid or reductions in eligibility could now pose a political risk for Republicans. People who could lose benefits would not just be Democratic voters in blue states, but Republicans in red states and swing districts who supported Trump last year. Drew Kent, a GOP strategist whose firm recently polled Pennsylvania's voters, found a slight majority, including 30 percent of Republicans, disapproved of work requirements for Medicaid. 'These results are definitely a bit surprising to me,' Kent said. 'It clearly shows the challenges and importance, particularly in a political swing state like Pennsylvania, of getting the policy, messaging, and communications right on an issue of this magnitude.' Republicans are aware of the potential political liability: The GOP's argument about the bill, which could still face changes in the Senate, is that the changes to the program do not amount to cuts for voters. 'The President wants to preserve and protect Medicaid for the Americans who this program was intended for,' White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said at a press briefing last month. 'We want to see able-bodied Americans at least working 20 hours per week, whether that's part-time or full-time, whether that's even looking for work or volunteering for 20 hours a week, if they are receiving Medicaid.' A memo from the National Republican Campaign Committee last month advised the party to go on offense, saying the bill protects Medicaid by 'removing illegal immigrants and eliminating fraud.' Among its provisions, the bill would penalize states such as California that use state dollars to extend Medicaid benefits to undocumented immigrants. According to CBO estimates, of the nearly 11 million people who would lose Medicaid or other health insurance due to the bill, about 1.4 million are immigrants. GOP strategist Josh Novotney argued that approach is in line with what Trump's working-class base wants. 'Most blue-collar Trump supporters I have met or spoken with in large groups do not want their hard-earned taxes going to other people, whether that is student debt forgiveness or Medicaid abuse,' he said. 'That is not at odds with his supporters.' A Kaiser Family Foundation poll released Friday found a plurality of Republicans, 42 percent, believed the Trump administration's policies would strengthen Medicaid, with only 22 percent believing the program would be weakened. But Republican Medicaid enrollees were more split, with 35 believing Trump would strengthen the program and 34 percent saying he would weaken it. That is where Democrats see an opening. A nonprofit affiliated with Democrats' House campaign arm is already targeting swing-district Republicans with digital ads accusing members of cutting Medicaid to pay for tax breaks for the rich. And a flurry of other liberal groups have purchased TV or digital ads and planned billboards and other activist campaigns. 'To the extent that this is becoming a bigger political issue, it's simply because their efforts to destroy Medicaid are fundamentally more dangerous and more real than ever before,' said Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), whose PAC is helping fund a group that opposes Medicaid cuts. As the bill currently stands, the Medicaid work requirements would not go into effect until the end of 2026. That means Democrats largely won't be able to point during their midterm campaigns to people who have already lost access to Medicaid. Instead, they may rely on voter trust on an issue that has historically worked for them. While polls have found voters consistently prefer the GOP more on issues such as the economy and immigration — which helped propel Trump's win last year — health care has remained a rare bright spot for Democrats. 'If there is a debate or chaos or uncertainty about Medicaid cuts, then I think Democrats stand to benefit from that because of the brand advantage on health care,' said Democratic pollster Zac McCrary. 'One of the few places where we have maintained an edge.'
