How far was Iran from building nuclear arms before Israel's attack – 3 years or a few months? Depends on who you ask

Indian Express

4 hours ago

When Israel launched its aerial strikes on Iran last week, it claimed the attacks were a necessary preemptive move to halt Tehran's march toward nuclear weapons. But according to a detailed CNN report citing multiple US officials released Tuesday, American intelligence assessments paint a different picture: Iran may still be up to three years away from building and delivering a usable nuclear bomb.
While Israel's strikes have killed at least 224 people and caused major damage to the Natanz enrichment facility, the deeper, heavily fortified Fordow plant — Iran's most protected nuclear site — remains operational and unscathed. A satellite image reviewed by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed Fordow was not seriously impacted during the June 13–14 attacks.
A senior US official told CNN that Israel's campaign, despite its intensity, has likely only set back Iran's nuclear program by a few months. The official noted that while Natanz's centrifuges were hit, key infrastructure needed to enrich uranium at weapons-grade levels remains largely intact.
Iran: Based on continued analysis of high resolution satellite imagery collected after Friday's attacks, the IAEA has identified additional elements that indicate direct impacts on the underground enrichment halls at Natanz.
No change to report at Esfahan and Fordow.
— IAEA – International Atomic Energy Agency ⚛️ (@iaeaorg) June 17, 2025
US and Israeli intelligence have long diverged on the extent of Iran's nuclear ambitions. Trump's Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, testified in March that Tehran is not actively building a nuclear bomb and that Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei has not revived the weapons programme suspended in 2003. President Trump, however, contradicted his own intelligence chief, telling reporters: 'I don't care what she said. I think they were very close to having it.'
CNN quoted a senior US official as saying that Iran is 'about as close as you can get before building' a nuclear weapon, suggesting all necessary components are available, but a political green light is lacking.
US Central Command (CENTCOM), responsible for American operations in the Middle East, reportedly endorsed a more aggressive assessment, fearing that Iran could produce a usable weapon sooner if it decided to 'sprint' toward weaponisation. CENTCOM chief Gen. Michael Kurilla has requested additional resources and repositioning of US military assets in the region. The USS Nimitz carrier group is now headed to the Middle East 'without delay,' and two Navy ships have already intercepted missiles over the weekend in defence of Israel.
Analysts warn that while Israel can disable facilities like Natanz, it lacks the capability to strike Fordow without direct US military involvement. 'It comes back to one question: Fordow, Fordow, Fordow,' former diplomat Brett McGurk told CNN, adding, 'If this ends with Fordow intact, you could actually have a worse problem.'
Amid fears that Israel's offensive could prompt Iran to shift from nuclear latency to full weaponisation, US officials remain divided on the way forward. Trump, speaking from the G7 summit in Canada, said the US was not involved 'at this moment' but urged Iran and Israel to 'begin talks before it's too late.'
However, Iranian officials told Qatar and Oman that no diplomacy is possible while Israeli strikes continue