Russia's strong ties with both Israel and Iran could help it emerge as a power broker

Winnipeg Free Press

10 hours ago

Russia has maintained a delicate balancing act in the Middle East for decades, trying to navigate its warm relations with Israel even as it has developed strong economic and military ties with Iran.
Israel's military strikes this weekend on Iranian nuclear and military facilities, killing top generals and scientists, and Tehran's response with drones and missiles, put Moscow in an awkward position, requiring fine diplomatic skills to preserve ties with both parties. But it also could open opportunities for Russia to possibly become a power broker to help end the confrontation.
Some observers in Moscow also argue that the focus on the confrontation between Israel and Iran could distract global attention from the war in Ukraine and play into Russia's hands by potentially weakening Western support for Kyiv.
A Russian condemnation but little else
Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke to both Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, offering to help de-escalate the conflict.
In his call with Pezeshkian, Putin condemned the Israeli strikes and offered his condolences. He noted that Russia has put forward specific initiatives aimed at resolving the situation around the Iranian nuclear program.
Russia's Foreign Ministry issued a strongly worded statement condemning the Israeli strikes as 'categorically unacceptable' and warning that 'all the consequences of this provocation will fall on the Israeli leadership.' It urged both parties 'to exercise restraint in order to prevent further escalation of tensions and keep the region from sliding into a full-scale war.'
But despite the harshly worded condemnation of Israel's actions, Moscow hasn't issued any signal that it could offer anything beyond political support to Tehran despite a partnership treaty between the countries.
In his call with Netanyahu, Putin 'emphasized the importance of returning to the negotiation process and resolving all issues related to the Iranian nuclear program exclusively through political and diplomatic means,' and he offered his mediation 'in order to prevent further escalation of tensions,' the Kremlin said in a readout.
'It was agreed that the Russian side will continue close contacts with the leadership of both Iran and Israel, aimed at resolving the current situation, which is fraught with the most disastrous consequences for the entire region,' it added.
Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump discussed the escalating situation in the Middle East by phone Saturday. Putin's foreign affairs adviser Yuri Ushakov said the Kremlin leader emphasized Russia's readiness to carry out mediation efforts, and noted it had proposed steps 'aimed at finding mutually acceptable agreements' during U.S.-Iran negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program.
Moscow-Tehran ties: From tense to strategic partners
Relations between Moscow and Tehran often were tense in the Cold War, when Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi was a U.S. ally. After the 1979 Islamic Revolution, leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini branded the U.S. as the 'Great Satan,' but also assailed the Soviet Union as the 'Lesser Satan.'
Russia-Iran ties warmed quickly after the USSR's demise in 1991, when Moscow became an important trade partner and a top supplier of weapons and technology to Iran as it faced international sanctions. Russia built Iran's first nuclear power plant in the port of Bushehr that became operational in 2013.
Russia was part of the 2015 deal between Iran and six nuclear powers, offering sanctions relief for Tehran in exchange for curbing its atomic program and opening it to broader international scrutiny. It offered political support when the U.S. unilaterally withdrew from the agreement during Trump's first term.
After a civil war in Syria erupted in 2011, Russia and Iran pooled efforts to shore up Bashar Assad's government. They helped Assad reclaim most of the country but failed to prevent a swift collapse of his rule in December 2024 after a lightning opposition offensive.
When Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the West alleged that Tehran signed a deal with the Kremlin to deliver Shahed drones and later launch their production in Russia.
In January, Putin and Pezeshkian signed the 'comprehensive strategic partnership' treaty that envisions close political, economic and military ties.
Russia-Israel ties stay strong despite tensions
During the Cold War, Moscow armed and trained Israel's Arab foes. Diplomatic relations with Israel ruptured in 1967 but were restored in 1991. Russian-Israeli ties quickly warmed after the collapse of the Soviet Union and have remained strong.
Despite Moscow's close ties with Tehran, Putin has repeatedly demonstrated his readiness to take Israeli interests into account.
He has maintained warm, personal ties with Netanyahu, who frequently traveled to Russia before the war in Ukraine.
Russia and Israel have built a close political, economic and cultural relationship that helped them tackle delicate and divisive issues, including developments in Syria. It survived a tough test in 2018, when a Russian military reconnaissance aircraft was shot down by Syrian forces responding to an Israeli airstrike, killing all 15 people aboard.
And even though Russia supplied Iran with sophisticated S-300 air defense missile systems, which Israel said were taken out during its strikes last year on Iran, Moscow has dragged its feet on deliveries of other weapons in an apparent response to Israeli worries. In particular, Russia has delayed providing advanced Su-35 fighter jets that Iran wants so it can upgrade its aging fleet.
Israel, in its turn, appeared to take Moscow's interests into account by showing little enthusiasm for providing Ukraine with weapons in the 3-year-old war.
The Kremlin's friendly ties with Israel has fueled discontent in Tehran, where some members of the political and military leadership reportedly were suspicious of Moscow's intentions.
Possible Russian gains from Middle East tensions
Maintaining good ties with both Israel and Iran could pay off now, placing Moscow in a position of a power broker trusted by both parties and a potential participant in any future deal on Tehran's nuclear program.
Long before Friday's strikes, Putin discussed the mounting Middle East tensions in his calls with Trump, conversations that offered the Russian leader a chance to pivot away from the war in Ukraine and engage more broadly with Washington on global issues.
Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov suggested in recent days that Russia could take highly enriched uranium from Iran and convert it into civilian reactor fuel as part of a potential agreement between the United States and Iran.
Prospects for negotiating a deal under which Iran would accept tighter restrictions on its nuclear program appear dim after the Israeli strikes. But if talks resume, Russia's offer could emerge as a pivotal component of an agreement.
Many observers believe the Israeli attacks will likely fuel global oil prices and help enrich Moscow at a time when its economy is struggling.
'It will destroy the hopes of Ukraine and its allies in Western Europe for a drop in Russian oil revenues that are essential for filling the military budget,' Moscow-based military analyst Ruslan Pukhov wrote in a commentary.
Some commentators in Moscow also argue the confrontation in the Middle East will likely distract Western attention and resources from the war in Ukraine and make it easier for Russia to pursue its battlefield goals.
'The world's attention to Ukraine will weaken,' said pro-Kremlin analyst Sergei Markov. 'A war between Israel and Iran will help the Russian army's success in Ukraine.'