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US-Russia talks on Ukraine war: What's on the table in Saudi Arabia?

US-Russia talks on Ukraine war: What's on the table in Saudi Arabia?

Al Jazeera24-03-2025

Negotiators from the United States and Russia have started talks in Saudi Arabia as they aim to make progress towards a broad ceasefire in Ukraine, with the resumption of the Black Sea grain deal and a continued pause in attacks against energy and civilian infrastructure high on the agenda.
The peace talks are being held in the Saudi capital, Riyadh, a day after negotiations between the US and Ukrainian delegations as part of President Donald Trump's push to end the more than three years of war between Ukraine and Russia.
Russia's team is headed by Sergei Beseda, a veteran of Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB), and diplomat Grigory Karasin who has previously been deputy foreign minister and ambassador to the UK.
The US Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, who has also been leading the Russia-Ukraine negotiations, voiced optimism that talks could pave the way for a 'full-on' ceasefire.
'I think you're going to see in Saudi Arabia on Monday some real progress, particularly as it affects a Black Sea ceasefire on ships between both countries. And from that you'll naturally gravitate to a full-on shooting ceasefire,' he told Fox News on Sunday.
But the Kremlin has downplayed expectations. 'We are only at the beginning of this path,' spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Russian state TV on Sunday. 'There are difficult negotiations ahead.'
The latest round of talks comes amid heightened diplomatic efforts by the Trump administration to broker a peace deal.
So what was discussed between the US and Ukraine, and what is on the table for the US-Russia talks?
The peace talks between the US and Ukrainian delegations in Riyadh concluded late on Sunday.
Ukrainian Defence Minister Rustem Umerov, who led the delegation, said the talks were 'productive'. He added that the two groups discussed the protection of critical and energy infrastructure from attacks. However, what infrastructure the truce would specifically cover is uncertain, with Russia and Ukraine stating different parameters.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Sunday in his nightly video address that the two delegations were working and the conversation was 'quite useful'.
'But no matter what we say to our partners today, we need to get [Russian President Vladimir] Putin to give a real order to stop the strikes. Whoever brought this war must take it back.'
On the eve of the latest round of talks that began on Sunday, Russia carried out attacks across Ukraine, including the capital Kyiv, killing seven people. Also on Sunday, Ukrainian state railway operator Ukrzaliznytsia came under a 'massive targeted cyber attack' on its online services.
The US-Russia talks began at about 10:30am (07:30 GMT) on Monday, according to the Russian state news agency TASS.
Here is what is expected to be on the agenda of the talks:
US National Security Advisor Mike Waltz told CBS News on Sunday: 'We are now going to talk about a Black Sea maritime ceasefire so that both sides can move grain, fuel, and start conducting trade again in the Black Sea.'
On Sunday, the Kremlin spokesman also said the resumption of the 2022 Black Sea grain deal will be the 'main' focus of the talks.
'On Monday, we mainly intend to discuss President Putin's agreement to resume the so-called Black Sea initiative, and our negotiators will be ready to discuss the nuances around this problem,' Peskov said.
Moscow pulled out of the deal – brokered by Turkiye and the United Nations – in 2023, accusing the West of failing to lift sanctions on Russia's exports of farm produce and fertilisers.
Last week, Putin and Zelenskyy agreed to a 30-day limited ceasefire, pledging not to attack energy infrastructure in each other's territories after separate phone calls with Trump. However, the US president was unable to get Putin to agree to a complete 30-day ceasefire, including a cessation of hostilities in the Black Sea.
Trump's calls came a week after Washington and Kyiv announced 'an immediate, interim 30-day ceasefire'. 'The ball is now in Russia's court,' Marco Rubio, the secretary of state, posted on X after meeting with the Ukrainian delegation on March 11 in Riyadh.
However, since the March 18 agreement, Russia and Ukraine have accused each other of attacks on energy sites.
Discussions about energy infrastructure will likely surface in Monday's discussions.
Putin has previously said while Russia supported the idea of a complete ceasefire, there were some issues that needed to be ironed out with the US.
One of the questions Putin raised was about how the ceasefire would be monitored. The Russian president said during a news conference on March 13: 'Who will give orders to stop hostilities? … Who will determine where and who has violated a possible ceasefire agreement for 2,000km [1,243 miles]?'
The Russian leader has also demanded a halt of arms supplies to Kyiv and a suspension of Ukraine's military mobilisation.
NSA Waltz hinted that the two sides plan to iron out these technicalities during their meeting on Monday.
'We'll talk the line of control, which is the actual front lines, and that gets into the details of verification mechanisms, peacekeeping, you know, freezing the lines where they are,' he told CBS.
The US-Ukraine ceasefire statement from March 11 stressed 'the exchange of prisoners of war, the release of civilian detainees, and the return of forcibly transferred Ukrainian children' during those 30 days.
Waltz told CBS that the return of these children is among several 'confidence building' measures that could be discussed.
Last month, after his first call to Putin, Trump announced the immediate start of peace talks without involving his European allies. The overture to Putin peeved European leaders who scrambled to get a seat at the table in Ukraine peace talks.
North Atlantic ties have since been strained as Trump has not taken European concerns on board. European leaders, who talked about security guarantees from the US, have since been forced to increase their defence budgets amid threats from Russian aggression.
Ahead of Monday's meeting, Waltz did not talk about the role of Ukraine's European allies, including European peacekeeping forces.
United Kingdom Prime Minister Keir Starmer on March 2 declared that a 'coalition of the willing' would devise peace terms and present them to the US.
However, Trump's envoy Witkoff deemed the coalition 'a combination of posture and pose' in an interview with conservative journalist Tucker Carlson on Saturday.
Witkoff, who met Putin in early March, rejected allies' concerns about the Russian leader's aspirations for European territory.
'I just don't see that he [Putin] wants to take all of Europe. This is a much different situation than it was in World War II. 'I feel that he [Putin] wants peace,' he told Fox News on Sunday.

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World on the cusp of a new nuclear arms race, says SIPRI
World on the cusp of a new nuclear arms race, says SIPRI

Al Jazeera

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  • Al Jazeera

World on the cusp of a new nuclear arms race, says SIPRI

The world is becoming more unstable, and the likelihood that nuclear weapons may one day be used is increasing, despite the wishes of humanity. That is the broad conclusion of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute's (SIPRI) Yearbook, published on Monday. It is a compilation of SIPRI's recent research into conflicts, arms transfers and military expenditure, but it places particular emphasis on what SIPRI sees as a dawning new arms race among the nine nuclear-armed states – the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea and Israel. Although the number of nuclear warheads in the world is declining as the US and Russia gradually dismantle 1,000 retired warheads, new warheads are entering stockpiles and will eventually outpace these in the absence of any treaties reducing or limiting stockpiles, said SIPRI. Improvements in potency, delivery and accuracy are also bringing about a new nuclear era, it said. 'We are at a step change, which has been going on since just before the pandemic,' SIPRI director Dan Smith told Al Jazeera. 'It's not just little bits and pieces here and there. It's everybody moving in that direction of upgrading, including the new nuclear weapon state of North Korea and the relatively new ones of Pakistan and India, who went nuclear in the 90s.' China is building 350 new launch silos in its northern deserts and mountains. It has assembled 100 new warheads in the past year to reach 600 and is likely to continue expanding at that pace. Although China has a no-first-use policy, it may be developing a launch-on-warning capability – a sort of reflexive counterstrike. China and India may both now be deploying warheads on missiles during peacetime, changing a longstanding policy of keeping warheads and missiles unmated. India may be developing longer-range missiles as it broadens its traditional focus on Pakistan to include China. North Korea is estimated to have refined enough fissile material to build 40 bombs in addition to the 50 it possesses, and has said it is about to launch tactical nuclear weapons. Pakistan, too, is stockpiling fissile material and its 'nuclear weapon arsenal … [is] likely to continue to expand over the next decade', wrote SIPRI. The UK is raising its stockpile from 225 warheads to 260 and building a new Dreadnought class of nuclear-capable submarines. France, too, is building a third-generation submarine and designing an air-launched cruise missile, both nuclear-capable. Israel is thought to be able to launch nuclear missiles from torpedo tubes in its existing submarines, but its latest, the Drakon, is believed to have a vertical launch system as well. All these nations, however, represent just 10 percent of the nuclear arsenal. The remaining 90 percent belongs to Russia and the US, with more than 1,700 deployed warheads each, and 4,521 in storage between them. In addition to being in the process of upgrading its nuclear-capable missiles, submarines and bombers, the US last year took delivery of 200 'modernised' nuclear warheads, the most in one year since the end of the Cold War. Russia, too, is modernising its air- and sea-based delivery systems, and may have placed nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus. Last year, it expanded its nuclear doctrine. Previously, the use of nuclear weapons was authorised when the very existence of the state was in jeopardy. Now it is authorised when there is a 'critical threat' against Russia's sovereignty or territorial integrity, or if there is a 'massive launch of air and space attack means' crossing the state border. Those means include unmanned aerial vehicles, which Ukraine often launches in dozens into Russia at a time. Russia's new doctrine 'could be interpreted to mean that Russia has lowered the threshold for the use of its nuclear weapons', wrote SIPRI. 'The mixed performance of Russia's conventional weapons in its war against Ukraine could reaffirm, and potentially even deepen, Russia's reliance on nuclear weapons in its national security strategy.' These changes are happening against a backdrop of intensifying conventional armed conflict in the world. 'The estimated overall number of fatalities rose from 188,000 in 2023 to 239,000 in 2024,' said SIPRI, citing five major conflicts: Israel's war on Gaza, the Russia-Ukraine crisis, civil wars in Myanmar and Sudan, and 'subnational armed conflicts' in Ethiopia. World military spending rose by 37 percent in the past decade, and by 9.4 percent last year alone, to $2.7 trillion, said SIPRI. The combination of greater nuclear range, firepower, accuracy and survivability and intensifying conventional conflict feeds a desire for proliferation, said Minna Alander, a fellow with the Transatlantic Defense and Security programme at the Centre for European Policy Analysis (CEPA). 'The situation has triggered a nuclear debate even in unlikely parts of Europe: the idea of a 'Nordic bomb' has become a morning radio topic in Sweden and Denmark's ex-Foreign Minister, Jeppe Kofod, recently described a Nordic defence union with own nuclear weapons as 'not only a dream but a strategic necessity',' she said. 'This is a remarkable and indicative development, given that Denmark and Norway have had limitations on NATO's nuclear presence on their territories and Finland and Sweden have a history of nonproliferation advocacy.' Finland and Sweden have signed bilateral military agreements with the US that came into force last year, allowing the US to place troops and weapons, including nuclear weapons, on their soil. Poland has also signalled it is open to US nuclear weapons sharing. Now the US security guarantee has been weakened, said Smith, by US President Donald Trump, making NATO's mutual defence clause conditional on an arbitrary level of defence spending. 'It's very muddy now what the response is, because on the one hand, there's a quite clear line of 'the USA is no longer a reliable ally'. So that is the new reality as far as the security planners and strategists are concerned,' he said. 'Once you introduce one condition, any amount of further conditions is thinkable, and soon the deterrent has lost its credibility,' said Alander. The French and UK independent deterrents came out of doubt whether a US president would 'sacrifice New York or even Akron, Ohio, for Berlin', he said, but the US stance vindicates France's choice of complete autonomy. Of the world's 193 UN members, 178 have now ratified the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), said SIPRI. Last year, four countries ratified the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), which aims to ban all nuclear weapons, bringing the total to 73. Another 25 have signed the TPNW, but have not ratified it. These efforts at curtailment and elimination stem from the argument that nobody can win a nuclear war, said SIPRI's Smith. 'Eighty years into the nuclear era, it still makes absolutely no sense whatsoever to launch a nuclear war under any circumstances,' said Smith. 'I'm pretty sure that Israel would use nuclear weapons if there was a serious existential threat. But it would achieve nothing. It wouldn't save Israel to do that. It would be basically revenge at best.'

Wagner vs Africa Corps: The future of Russian paramilitaries in Mali
Wagner vs Africa Corps: The future of Russian paramilitaries in Mali

Al Jazeera

time3 hours ago

  • Al Jazeera

Wagner vs Africa Corps: The future of Russian paramilitaries in Mali

This month, the Russian mercenary outfit Wagner Group announced its total withdrawal from Mali, claiming it had completed its mission after three and a half years of operations in the West African country. For years, Wagner had been battling rebels and armed groups on behalf of the Malian government, as well as asserting Russia's interests in the Sahel. But as Wagner leaves, security advisers from the Africa Corps, a Kremlin-controlled paramilitary group, will remain in their place, ensuring a lingering presence of Russian forces. So, what does this change mean for Mali, and is there a difference between the two Russian paramilitary groups and their mission in Africa? Mali's government has, for decades, been embroiled in a conflict with ethnic Tuareg separatists in the Sahara Desert, as well as fighters affiliated with ISIL (ISIS) and al-Qaeda. Previously, French forces assisted the Malian government, but they withdrew after a military coup in 2021. The latest round of fighting erupted in 2023 when Bamako's military government mounted a new offensive against the rebels. 'The Malian junta invited Wagner and Russia to support them in Mali – this really stemmed from frustration with the [military] support provided by France and other Western partners,' Flore Berger, a senior analyst at the Global Initiative's North Africa and Sahel Observatory, told Al Jazeera. 'They felt that, despite years of help, the security situation hadn't improved, and Western countries kept pressuring them to return to civilian rule, organise elections, etc. Russia, through Wagner, on the other hand, offered support without those conditions. It was seen as a more respectful and reliable partner that wouldn't interfere in Mali's political choices.' The separation from France also appeared to bolster Malian sovereignty. 'France is Mali's former colonial overlord and there's a tense relationship, to say the least,' International Crisis Group's Sahel researcher Franklin Nossiter told Al Jazeera. 'Long story short, they break up, and Mali kicks out the French troops … The deployment in Mali was pretty opportunistic, upstaging the West; it was a big black eye for France.' While Moscow maintained an active presence in Africa during the Cold War, its footprint diminished in the post-communist collapse of the 1990s as Russia dealt with its own problems. But it has been revived in recent years, as President Vladimir Putin has sought a more assertive role on the world stage. 'The original push into Africa largely came through Wagner,' said John Lechner, author of Death Is Our Business: Russian Mercenaries And The New Era Of Private Warfare. 'Over time, as the programme became successful … the interest within the Kremlin more broadly grew, especially after the full-scale war in Ukraine in 2022, when it was a useful narrative that not only is Russia not isolated, but there are African countries that continue to seek its assistance.' Experts say mercenaries have been a tool of Russian interests in Africa, capitalising on discontent with the former colonial and neocolonial powers, as well as offering security in exchange for resources, especially in the Central African Republic. This was less so in Mali, however, where, despite some small-scale gold mining operations, some Wagnerites were so hard-pressed for cash they were purportedly pictured selling discount canned sardines at local markets. There, the priority was seemingly more about Russian influence over the Sahel. 'Now, it is exclusively a question of geopolitics, ousting the collective West from Africa, creating an anti-Western coalition,' explained Sergey Eledinov, a former Russian peacekeeper turned independent Africa specialist based in Dakar, Senegal. Last year saw another foreign player appear in the Malian conflict. A contingent of Wagner and Malian troops was ambushed by Tuareg rebels in Tinzaouaten, near the Algerian border, in July, claiming the lives of 84 Russian mercenaries and 47 Malian soldiers, including Nikita Fedyanin, a blogger behind the Wagner-linked Telegram channel, Grey Zone. Ukraine's spy agency, the GUR, admitted it provided crucial intelligence to the rebels against Russia. There were also reports that Ukrainians taught the rebels how to operate drones. In response, Mali broke off diplomatic relations with Ukraine. 'We're not really sure if it's still ongoing,' Nossiter said about Ukraine's support. 'At the time, there were reports that other Ukrainian allies were pressuring Ukrainians not to do that,' he explained, noting that the perceived 'close ties between the jihadist groups and some of the separatists' may have made Kyiv's Western backers nervous. Now, given recent upsetting defeats against Malian and Russian troops, and the intensifying violence in northern Mali, it's questionable to many whether Wagner's mission was a success. 'The biggest crowning victory of the Malian military in the last couple of years was retaking this town, Kidal [in 2023], which was a long-time separatist stronghold,' Nossiter said. 'It's the kind of victory people point to and say: without Wagner, it wouldn't have been possible.' But at the same time, insecurity continues to be a major challenge, the Sahel researcher emphasised. 'The jihadists, just in the last two weeks, have attacked three major Malian military camps. They also attacked the city of Timbuktu, and they put an IED [improvised explosive device] at a joint Malian-Wagner training camp just outside of the capital city of Bamako,' he said. Meanwhile, the mercenaries have been accused of the deliberate deaths and disappearances of civilians in their counter-rebellion campaign. In February, a Tuareg convoy returning from a wedding reportedly came under fire from Wagner and Malian forces, killing at least 20 civilians, including children and elderly people. 'Overall, the Russian presence has helped the junta stay in power and appear strong, but it hasn't solved the deeper security problems, and it's led to more isolation from the West and international aid,' added Berger. The Russian position has also been weakened by developments elsewhere. 'Russia's position has become more precarious following the collapse of key logistics hubs in Syria, specifically the Tartous port and Khmeimim airbase, after the downfall of its protege Bashar al-Assad,' noted Alessandro Arduino, author of Money for Mayhem: Mercenaries, Private Military Companies, Drones, and the Future of War. In 2023, then-Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin mutinied against the Russian military leadership before he subsequently perished in a suspicious plane crash in August that year. Fearing another uprising, the Kremlin reined in Wagner and other paramilitaries, which have since been more tightly integrated into the command structure and the Africa Corps rose to prominence. According to Eledinov, this sparked some tension. 'Some of the Wagner fighters went over to the Africa Corps, but most of them stayed to serve in the assault squads,' he said. 'After the death of Prigozhin, the majority of fighters and commanders did not want to go over to the Africa Corps, as a result of which the Wagner assault squads remained in Mali to this day. I assume that now they had no choice [but to withdraw].' While there's substantial overlap between the two paramilitary groups, with some estimates claiming 70-80 percent of Africa Corps personnel being Wagner veterans, they are different organisations. 'A lot of reporting on this – especially in the early months after Africa Corps was first announced – assumed that Africa Corps and Wagner were the same thing, and that AC was just Wagner 'rebranded',' said Julia Stanyard, another analyst at the Global Initiative. 'In fact, they are separate entities. Africa Corps is more closely managed by the Russian Ministry of Defence and [Russia's military intelligence agency], the GRU, than Wagner ever was. However, they do have similarities, and many of those recruited to Africa Corps, including many of their commanding officers, are former Wagner mercenaries.' While Wagner actively engaged on the battlefield, the Africa Corps is set to serve in a more advisory capacity. 'Even after the death of Prigozhin and his mutiny, the Russian government is formalising its presence in the Sahel,' Lechner observed. 'It will be interesting to see how, now that Africa Corps is fully taking over the mission, to what extent Russia's military presence will have a different character within Mali. The Wagner units were extremely aggressive, operationally very often independent, often going out in direct combat on their own without even being accompanied by [Malian soldiers]. Africa Corps has been designed as more of a training mission, a force that is supposed to protect fixed assets. And it will probably be more bureaucratic because it's part of the MOD and risk-averse.' Although Wagner served Russian interests, as mercenaries, they still allowed the Kremlin plausible deniability. 'If earlier, everyone understood that Wagner was Russia, but formally, it was a private company, now, it is entirely Russia. And accordingly, Russia bears much more responsibility [for] all the ensuing consequences, namely purges of civilians, looting and so on,' said Eledinov. 'There is no military resolution to this conflict by force. Without negotiations, it only escalates the degree of the conflict.'

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