NDP popularity rising as Tories fade: poll

Winnipeg Free Press

14 hours ago

Premier Wab Kinew and his NDP government are now the most popular party for both Winnipeggers and Manitobans across the province while Obby Khan has not been able to dent that popularity in the almost two months since he became Tory leader.
A Free Press-Probe Research poll has found the NDP, in seat rich Winnipeg, not only have the support of 62 per cent of voters, but, at 50 per cent, are now nine percentage points higher than the Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba beyond the Perimeter Highway.
University of Manitoba political studies professor Christopher Adams said while the Winnipeg number for the NDP is down slightly from the 64 per cent support the party received in the last Free Press-Probe poll in March, it is up a full 10 percentage points since the October 2023 swept it to a majority government.
At the same time, Adams said the Tory numbers in Winnipeg haven't budged in the last three months – they are still at 25 per cent of voter support – but that's down from the 32 per cent support they received in the election when they won only three of the 32 seats in the city.
'That's a seven point drop,' he said on Friday.
'The Progressive Conservatives can't afford to do that. And, with the NDP up 10 points since the election, there's no way the Progressive Conservatives can win an election with these types of numbers.'
The poll also show that, in what has for decades traditionally been the Tory heartland outside of Winnipeg, the Tories have tumbled in the weeks since Khan was chosen as leader on April 26.
The Tories are at 41 per cent in rural and northern Manitoba, which is not only down six percentage points since the last poll in March, but a precipitous drop of 15 percentage points from the support it received in the provincial election.
Mary Agnes Welch, a Probe Research partner, said the NDP leading by just shy of by double digits in rural and northern Manitoba, 'is a little unheard of.
'It could be because of the wildfire response and people wanting to rally around the government with so many evacuees here, but for the NDP to be that strong outside the Perimeter Highway is unheard of… if the election was held tomorrow, some of the rural ridings the NDP came close to winning would be real fights.'
Adams said he wonders if the drop in Tory numbers is a result of Khan being elected leader. While, under the Tory's weighted system for votes from constituencies, Khan received more points than Wally Daudrich, Daudrich actually received 53 more votes.
'Maybe some PCs have drifted away with Wally Daudrich being defeated?' he said.
'What strikes me is the slow continuing decline of the Progressive Conservatives in Winnipeg and, outside Winnipeg, the growth of NDP support. The NDP have climbed up most quarters (in the polls). The NDP must be happy about that.'
Whether it is gender, age, level of education, household income, Indigenous, all racialized or Caucasian, the NDP has a sizeable lead in all these categories over the Tories.
The poll also shows while 41 per cent say they would definitely vote for Khan or consider it, 42 per cent say they won't. Eighteen per cent say they are unsure.
But Adams said 'I think Obby Khan is quite secure in his leadership.
'It's too early to think about his leadership being precarious. He is one of only two (Tory) MLAs in Winnipeg.'
Welch said not only does Khan have 'a pretty tough road ahead,' he is also having to walk a tightrope to gain the Winnipeg voters his party needs to ever have a chance of becoming government again.
'He is getting squeezed by having to be open to Winnipeggers and women in Winnipeg, but also to try to get the Wally Daudrich voters back.'
As for Kinew, Adams said while he is still experiencing a honeymoon period, it's now for a different reason than the one which began when his government took over from the previous Tory government.
MIKE DEAL / FREE PRESS
'People are seeing Kinew's federal and provincial discussions of collaboration, his messaging to (U.S. President Donald) Trump's behaviour, and his handling of the crisis of the wildfires,' he said.
'With all three, it's seen as positive for Wab Kinew.'
Meanwhile, the Manitoba Liberal Party, under interim leader Cindy Lamoreaux, is at 11 per cent support in Winnipeg, up slightly from March, but still down four percentage points from the election, while outside Winnipeg, the party is tied at three percentage points with the Keystone Party of Manitoba.
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'Usually, when the federal Liberals brand is strong, it helps the provincial Liberals, but here we see they are not benefiting from the surge in Liberal support,' Adams said.
And, with the three percentage points going to the Keystone Party, which is seen as to the right of the Tory party, 'I'm sure that's three per cent Khan would like to have.'
Probe Research polled 1,000 Manitoba adults between May 28 and June 10.
MIKAELA MACKENZIE / FREE PRESS FILES
The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 per cent, 95 times out of 100.
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Kevin RollasonReporter
Kevin Rollason is a general assignment reporter at the Free Press. He graduated from Western University with a Masters of Journalism in 1985 and worked at the Winnipeg Sun until 1988, when he joined the Free Press. He has served as the Free Press's city hall and law courts reporter and has won several awards, including a National Newspaper Award. Read more about Kevin.
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