Analysis: SST could cut plantation earnings by up to 11 pct annually
The biggest blow is expected to come from the purchase of external FFB by CPO millers and external PKO by downstream producers. — AFP photo
KUCHING: The plantation sector may see its earnings drop by as much as 11 per cent per annum due to the expanded Sales and Service Tax (SST) coming into effect on 1 July, according to RHB Investment Bank Bhd (RHB Research).
The house said the new 5 per cent tax will apply to several palm oil-related items including fresh fruit bunches (FFB), empty fruit bunches (EFB), palm kernel shells (PKS), palm fatty acid distillate (PFAD), palm kernel fatty acid distillate (PKFAD), and palm kernel oil (PKO), among others.
'We expect the expanded SST to be negative for the sector,' it said in a note on Thursday, adding that the estimated earnings impact could range from 0.3 to 11 per cent per annum for Malaysian plantation companies under its coverage.
It noted that FGV Holdings Bhd is likely to face the most significant hit given that about 70 per cent of its FFB is sourced externally.
The biggest blow is expected to come from the purchase of external FFB by crude palm oil (CPO) millers and external PKO by downstream producers.
'This tax is to be levied on top of all the other taxes the palm oil industry currently already faces – including windfall taxes, sales tax of CPO in East Malaysia, and export tax on all palm oil products.
'While there can be some offsetting factor in the form of additional tax to be levied on sales of EFB, PKS, PFAD, etc, we believe the nett earnings impact will still be negative,' it added.
RHB Research calculated the estimated earnings impact using a base price of RM850 per tonne for FFB and based it on the volume of external FFB purchases, though full figures for external PKO purchases and other sales were not available due to limited disclosures.
Despite the negative outlook from the new tax, RHB Research has kept its earnings forecasts unchanged for now, pending further clarification from the companies under its coverage.
The research house has also placed its sector rating under review, down from a previous overweight stance.
'Geopolitical risks have led to a CPO price destruction over the last couple of months and our price assumption of RM4,300 per tonne for the year is unlikely to be achieved,' it said.
The year-to-date CPO price is around RM4,400 per tonne, and analysts expects a potential recovery towards the end of the year as production slows.
Its top stock picks remain unchanged and include Johor Plantations Group, Sarawak Oil Palms, SD Guthrie, Bumitama Agri Ltd, and PP London Sumatra Indonesia Tbk. analysis economy expanded SST palm oil plantation SST
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