The chaos muppet California needed — but too late

Politico

a day ago

Presented by the Stop the Oil Shakedown Coalition.
With help from Camille von Kaenel
AT LAST: Has Elon Musk become the climate champion California wanted him to be all along?
The Tesla CEO's apparent pivot to self-interested electric vehicle policy advocate might be happening just in time to influence the Senate's direction on $7,500 electric vehicle rebates, which the House megabill gutted last week.
It's likely too late, though, to save the Clean Air Act waivers that let California enforce its stricter-than-federal clean vehicle rules. Those are sitting on President Donald Trump's desk after Congress voted last month to roll back the state's authority despite warnings that the move could be illegal.
And despite elected Democrats' seizing on Musk's sharp break with Trump as ammunition against the House bill, California climate advocates aren't following suit.
'He is certainly a chaos muppet, but whether he is the one California needs continues to be very much in question,' said Craig Segall, a former deputy executive officer at the California Air Resources Board and a policy consultant. 'He may sort of be blundering through a semi-appropriate door, but he doesn't really seem like someone people would want to keep company with.'
Musk had reportedly been trying recently to save the tax credit behind the scenes, despite having declared himself indifferent to its fate early in the campaign cycle. He denied having flipped Thursday, even after Tesla Energy, the company's solar and battery arm, began publicly opposing the bill's cuts to solar and battery tax credits last week.
'Keep the EV/solar incentives cuts in the bill, also cut all the crazy spending increases in the Big Ugly Bill so that America doesn't go bankrupt!' he said on X.
But it's California's clean-vehicle targets that famously made his company billions through the sale of credits to other automakers who needed to meet the state's zero-emission sales targets. He hasn't mentioned those publicly, despite claims by Trump that they were at the heart of their sudden split.
'I took away his EV Mandate that forced everyone to buy Electric Cars that nobody else wanted (that he knew for months I was going to do!), and he just went CRAZY!' Trump said on social media Thursday.
Regardless of his positions on electric vehicles, Musk's break from Trump world is a seemingly rational move as the company's sales have plummeted in recent months amid backlash over his role in slashing the federal workforce and supporting far-right candidates around the world.
In California, where high electric vehicle penetration has long made it a barometer of Musk sentiment, drivers have turned on Tesla. The company now represents less than 44 percent of the state's EV market, down from nearly 80 percent in 2020.
Mike Murphy, a veteran Republican consultant and EV advocate, said Musk's abrupt shift is likely to only harden Trump's resolve against EVs, which he bashed on the campaign trail.
'My guess is this spat has hardened the Trump administration's desire to punish the entire EV category,' Murphy said.
Another irony: He's alienating Trump to the point where Tesla's stock is dropping further on fears of regulatory retaliation. It fell nearly 15 percent today, with a big dip coming just after Trump's noon screed.
'The quickly deteriorating friendship and now 'major beef' between Musk and Trump is jaw dropping and a shock to the market and putting major fear for Tesla investors on what is ahead,' Dan Ives, an analyst with Wedbush Securities, said in a client note Thursday. — DK, AN
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HEATING UP: The ongoing fight pitting emissions reductions against affordability concerns is coming for SoCal residents' gas heaters.
The South Coast Air Quality Management District is set to vote Friday on a pair of rules aimed at phasing out gas space and water heaters across a five-county region — home to nearly 17 million residents — that's struggled to tackle nation-leading smog and persistent pollution.
The vote is expected to be close — and the episode could give the fossil fuel industry, business groups and Republican lawmakers a playbook for killing future climate policies.
The proposal, which would set zero-emission sales targets for manufacturers, ramping up from 30 percent of sales next year and to 90 percent by 2036, is weaker than the ban on new gas heater sales that Bay Area officials passed two years ago and will start in 2027.
But it's attracted a fierce lobbying campaign from SoCalGas and business groups, joined by former Los Angeles mayor and current gubernatorial candidate Antonio Villaraigosa.
'While we can't control Donald Trump's irrational impulses, California's leaders must prioritize affordability,' he wrote in an op-ed Sunday.
Longtime observers of the agency and even agency staff say the lobbying effort and focus on the gas heater rules are unlike anything they've ever seen.
'In my years of doing this kind of work, and I've had a lot of years of experience, both here and in other parts of the country, this is unprecedented,' said Sarah Rees, South Coast's deputy executive officer of planning and rules. — AN
GRID GAMES: It's good for Sen. Josh Becker that most of his Senate colleagues seem to like him because they didn't seem thrilled about the direction of his bill to pave the way to California's participation in a West-wide energy market, SB 540, in a floor debate Wednesday night.
The bill ultimately passed 36-0. But not before several Democratic senators said they were concerned about recent changes to the bill that would give more control over the transition to a new body made up of top energy regulators, the chairs of energy committees, and the attorney general.
Sen. Tony Strickland called the bill 'very problematic,' for example; Sen. Angelique Ashby said she was concerned because her district's utility, the Sacramento Municipal Utility District, has qualms about the changes; and Sen. Aisha Wahab said she would oppose the bill over concerns it cedes legislative oversight (she ended up not voting).
The lawmakers fell in line after Senate President Pro Tem Mike McGuire spoke in favor of the bill and Becker promised to keep amending the bill in the Assembly. — CvK
AD BATTLE: Environmental groups have a retort to oil and gas groups' seven-figure ad buy calling on state lawmakers to pledge they will not vote for policies that increase gas prices: their very own seven-figure ad buy.
The Campaign for a Safe and Healthy California, which includes dozens of public health, environment and labor groups, is airing its own TV broadcast ad, primarily in the Sacramento area. The ad calls the oil and gas industry's claims 'lies' and urges support for measures increasing fees on polluting companies to pay for climate damages. — CvK
THOSE DAMN DAMS: Assemblymember Diane Papan's bill to Trump-proof dam releases passed the Assembly largely intact Thursday, but know that it'll be amended later.
The California Chamber of Commerce, the California Farm Bureau and the Association of California Water Agencies said they'd stop fighting her AB 1146 on Thursday after she agreed to amend it to take out most of the penalties for federal officials who release water from dams under false pretenses, as the Trump administration did in January when it dumped water from two Central Valley dams and falsely claimed it would help fight the Los Angeles fires.
It's an old tale: Big legislative swings on California water issues almost always get caught up in the complexities of state and federal water law — and opposition from ag interests uber-sensitive over their most precious resource.
Papan agreed to drop the $10,000-a-day fines for federal officials in violation as well as the interim relief power for state water regulators, though she also added a provision making clear the attorney general could file for an injunction to stop the 'fraudulent' releases. The bill advanced to the Senate on a 45-15 vote. — CvK
— Lawmakers and Gov. Gavin Newsom are set to trim state incentives aimed at reducing demand on the grid when it's strained.
— A conservation group transferred 47,000 acres in the lower Klamath Basin to the Yurok tribe in the largest 'land-back' deal in state history.
— A New York Times energy reporter takes a ride in famously car-collecting Jay Leno's 1909 electric car.