Keir Starmer is in a hot mess - and I've never seen anything like it
Less than a year ago in Downing Street, the bunting was out, and Keir Starmer was walking into No 10 to a chorus of cheers after winning a landslide victory.
Now there's such a rebellion from his own MPs, he's being forced to climb down on his welfare reforms.
PM set to make serious concessions - politics latest
For a prime minister to face such a challenge so early in his premiership, with such a big majority, is simply unprecedented.
It is a humiliating blow to his authority from a parliamentary party that has felt ignored by Downing Street.
How has this happened?
The PM's entire focus for the past 12 days has been on international diplomacy.
He's gone from the G7 in Canada, trying to deal with Trump, trade deals, de-escalation; then Israel-Iran, he was at Chequers trying to deal with that crisis; and then he was straight to NATO.
You could forgive him for being pretty angry that those who should have been managing the shop back home have ended up in such an enormous blow-up with MPs. A PM needs to be able to trust his team when he's dealing with international crisis.
As I understand it, a month ago up to 140 MPs signed a private letter to the whips warning they would not accept the welfare reforms.
The whips told No 10 - and No 10 it seems stuck their fingers in their ears and didn't pay attention to it.
But this is really draining on the PM's authority. Ultimately, he carries the can.
What happens next?
As I understand it, he's now looking at serious concessions in order to get his welfare bill passed on Tuesday.
No 10 are considering whether they drop the PIP changes for existing claimants, and the health element of universal credit for existing claimants too.
Speaking to me on the Electoral Dysfunction podcast, Labour peer and ex-minister Harriet Harman said she expects concessions to be enough to appease enough of the rebels.
It will leave the chancellor needing to look somewhere else to make billions of pounds of savings.
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It's a hot mess, and it was avoidable. It has left very bad blood between the parliamentary party and No 10 and No 11. There's a lot of ire directed at Rachel Reeves at the moment too.
For a PM to be facing such an overt challenge to his authority with a working majority of 165, less than a year into his leadership, having to U-turn because he's facing defeat?
I've never seen anything like it.
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Sir Keir Starmer is understood to have offered concessions on his controversial welfare reforms in a Government climbdown that looks set to have won over leading Labour rebels. Number 10 had been locked in crisis talks with backbenchers after some 126 MPs within the party signed an amendment that would halt the legislation in its tracks. On Thursday night, sources said a deal was being thrashed out between rebels and the Government as it seeks to head off the prospect of the Prime Minister's first Commons defeat in a crunch vote next week. The Government's original package restricted eligibility for the personal independence payment (Pip), the main disability payment in England, and limited the sickness-related element of universal credit. Existing claimants were to be given a 13-week, phase-out period of financial support in an earlier move that was seen as a bid to head off opposition by aiming to soften the impact of the changes. However, concessions offered by the Government to save the Bill from defeat are understood to include a commitment that those currently receiving Pip will continue to get the allowance. This would protect some 370,000 existing claimants who were expected to lose out following reassessment. Ministers had hoped the reforms would get more people back into work and save up to £5 billion a year, but fresh changes such as these would leave Chancellor Rachel Reeves needing to find money elsewhere. Rebels had also been calling for ministers to row back on a freeze in the health element of universal credit, which was expected to lead to a £450 real decline in support for some 2.2 million existing claimants. It is understood that the Government has agreed to avoid such a reduction in support, as well as committing to a future consultation that would involve taking the views of disabled people about policy into account. The Universal Credit and Personal Independence Payment Bill has its second reading on Tuesday, the first opportunity for MPs to support or reject it. If the legislation clears its first hurdle, it will then face a few hours' examination by all MPs the following week – rather than days or weeks in front of a committee tasked with looking at the Bill. The Government had earlier said it was listening to suggestions to improve the legislation amid concerns about the swift timetable of the Bill. The so-called 'reasoned amendment' tabled by Treasury select committee chairwoman Dame Meg Hillier had argued that disabled people have not been properly consulted and further scrutiny of the changes is needed. While the expected concessions look set to have reassured some of those who had been leading the rebellion, other MPs remain opposed. Speaking to the PA news agency, Rachel Maskell said: 'As the Government is seeking to reform the system they should protect all disabled people until they have completed their co-produced consultation and co-produced implementation. 'I cannot vote for something that will have such a significant impact … as disabled people are not involved, it is just a backroom deal.' One MP said that ministers would need to 'go back to the drawing board' to make the Bill acceptable. Another said they expected the legislation would get through second reading if the Government conceded the key sticking points relating to existing Pip claimants, the health element of universal credit and a policy consultation. 'It would need to be in the Bill, not just a commitment,' they said. Speaking in the Commons on Wednesday, Sir Keir told MPs he wanted the reforms to reflect 'Labour values of fairness' and that discussions about the changes would continue over the coming days. He insisted there was 'consensus across the House on the urgent need for reform' of the 'broken' welfare system. 'I know colleagues across the House are eager to start fixing that, and so am I, and that all colleagues want to get this right, and so do I,' he said. 'We want to see reform implemented with Labour values of fairness. 'That conversation will continue in the coming days, so we can begin making change together on Tuesday.' There was mixed reaction among charities to the prospect of concessions. Learning disability charity Mencap said the news would be a 'huge relief to thousands of people living in fear of what the future holds'. 'It is the right thing to do and sends a clear message – cutting disability benefits is not a fair way to mend the black hole in the public purse,' director of strategy Jackie O'Sullivan said. But the MS Society urged rebels to hold firm and block the Bill, insisting any Government offer to water down the reforms would amount to 'kicking the can down the road and delaying an inevitable disaster'. Head of campaigns at the charity, Charlotte Gill, said: 'We urge MPs not to be swayed by these last ditch attempts to force through a harmful Bill with supposed concessions. 'The only way to avoid a catastrophe today and in the future is to stop the cuts altogether by halting the Bill in its tracks.' The Tories described concessions as 'the latest in a growing list of screeching U-turns' from the Government. Shadow chancellor Mel Stride said: 'Under pressure from his own MPs, Starmer has made another completely unfunded spending commitment. 'Labour's welfare chaos will cost hardworking taxpayers. 'We can't afford Labour.'
