2025 NBA playoffs: Predictions for every first-round series

Yahoo

07-05-2025

The first round of the 2025 NBA playoffs begins Saturday. Who will advance to the conference semis? Here are our staff predictions for every series.
(Also check out our boldest predictions and NBA Finals picks.)
EAST
WEST
EASTERN CONFERENCE
(1) Cavaliers vs. (8) Heat
Dan Devine: Cavs in 5
Vincent Goodwill: Cavs in 5
Tom Haberstroh: Cavs in 4
Morten Stig Jensen: Cavs in 5
Kevin O'Connor: Cavs in 4
Ben Rohrbach: Cavs in 4
Dan Titus: Cavs in 4
The Heat have done commendable work to pull out of their post-Jimmy-trade tailspin and win two play-in games on the road to make the postseason proper. When it comes to lining them up against this Cavs team, though, all that commendable work will buy them is a gentleman's sweep. — Devine
Cleveland, OKC and Boston all sweep. We haven't seen three sweeps in Round 1 since 2020, but I have a feeling we'll see it outside the Bubble for the first time in almost a decade. They're that much better than their first-round opponents. — Haberstroh
Cavaliers-Heat series preview, key matchups and schedule
(2) Celtics vs. (7) Magic
Devine: Celtics in 4
Goodwill: Celtics in 5
Haberstroh: Celtics in 4
Jensen: Celtics in 4
O'Connor: Celtics in 4
Rohrbach: Celtics in 4
Titus: Celtics in 5
The Celtics have too much firepower. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, even at 80%, are better than Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner at this point. And then there is Boston's depth. How are the Magic going to score with them? — Rohrbach
Who's gonna challenge the Boston Celtics? They've toyed with the Knicks this year, their assumed second-round appointment unless Detroit crashes the party. So clearly the biggest challenge is the team that's led the East from end-to-end, those Cleveland Cavaliers. — Goodwill
Celtics-Magic series preview, key matchups and schedule
(3) Knicks vs. (6) Pistons
Devine: Knicks in 7
Goodwill: Knicks in 7
Haberstroh: Knicks in 6
Jensen: Knicks in 7
O'Connor: Knicks in 7
Rohrbach: Knicks in 7
Titus: Pistons in 7
BetMGM has the Knicks as heavy favorites (-425, 81% probability to win), but Detroit's Cade Cunningham has been a problem for New York all year. The Pistons are well-coached with a balanced roster that can knock down 3s, bang in the post and lock down defensively. It's Detroit vs. Everybody on the road to claim its first postseason series win since 2008. — Titus
The Pistons have been every bit as good as the Knicks for four solid months now — better over the past couple! — and are playing like a group with a defined identity that knows exactly who they are, what they need to do, and how they need to do it. ... That said: New York does have the talent advantage at the higher end — especially if Karl-Anthony Towns can replicate the kinds of postseason performances he turned in for the Timberwolves in last spring's opening rounds. — Devine
Knicks-Pistons series preview, key matchups and schedule
(4) Pacers vs. (5) Bucks
Devine: Pacers in 6
Goodwill: Pacers in 7
Haberstroh: Pacers in 6
Jensen: Pacers in 6
O'Connor: Bucks in 7
Rohrbach: Bucks in 7
Titus: Bucks in 6
Giannis Antetokounmpo reminds us that it is unwise to pick against him in the playoffs, averaging around 40 points per game in a seven-game victory against the Pacers, which would count as an upset, according to BetMGM. Will a first-round victory be enough to convince Antetokounmpo that Milwaukee is still a long-term home for him? That I don't know. — Rohrbach
Consecutive first-round losses to Indiana could prompt questions about Milwaukee's and Giannis' future. The Bucks can't waste another MVP-like campaign from Giannis, especially after beating the Pacers by an average margin of nine points in their three regular-season wins. — Titus
Bucks-Pacers series preview, key matchups and schedule
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(1) Thunder vs. (8) Grizzlies
Devine: Thunder in 5
Goodwill: Thunder in 5
Haberstroh: Thunder in 4
Jensen: Thunder in 5
O'Connor: Thunder in 4
Rohrbach: Thunder in 5
Titus: Thunder in 5
Can anyone take advantage of Oklahoma City's playoff inexperience? It matters whether you have been there before. Just look at the history of the league. But it may not matter for the Thunder. Led by a 26-year-old Shai Gilgeous-Alexaner, they could be too talented, too deep and too rabid to let anyone, even all-time greats, stand in their way of a title. — Rohrbach
Give the Grizzlies a game, just to be nice. But OKC is more concerned with the more serious teams it will face down the road in the West than it is with a Memphis team that cannot seem to get its act together. — Rohrbach
Thunder-Grizzlies series preview, key matchups and schedule
(2) Rockets vs. (7) Warriors
Devine: Warriors in 6
Goodwill: Warriors in 6
Haberstroh: Warriors in 7
Jensen: Warriors in 6
O'Connor: Rockets in 6
Rohrbach: Warriors in 7
Titus: Rockets in 6
Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. But I've yet to see this Rockets core win a seven-game series, and I've seen Steph and Draymond get a game on the road and eventually break a more athletic team, I've seen Jimmy tilt matchups against favorites, and I've seen both of those things a lot. Houston suffers the same fate as countless postseason debutantes across NBA history, and Golden State keeps rolling. — Devine
Are we sleeping on the Rockets? The Warriors, the second seventh-seeded team favored in a first-round series since 1988, bring unmatched experience and a championship pedigree. Then they added Jimmy Butler. However, Houston's top-five defense thrives on physicality, wearing opponents down. With a frontcourt edge and defensive grit, the Rockets could disrupt Curry's rhythm — something we've seen Houston do to Steph before. — Titus
Rockets-Warriors series preview, key matchups and schedule
(3) Lakers vs. (6) Timberwolves
Devine: Lakers in 6
Goodwill: Lakers in 6
Haberstroh: Lakers in 7
Jensen: Lakers in 6
O'Connor: Lakers in 6
Rohrbach: Lakers in 7
Titus: Wolves in 7
Luka Dončić owned the Timberwolves as a member of the Mavericks in last season's Western Conference finals, and now he has LeBron James at his side. Together they can solve Minnesota's defense. Barely. — Rohrbach
I don't know what to expect from JJ Redick, Luka Dončić, LeBron James and Austin Reaves in their first foray together. Same goes for Jimmy Buckets and the pressure cooker of playing in San Francisco with Draymond Green and Curry. All bets are off. — Haberstroh
Lakers-Wolves series preview, key matchups and schedule
(4) Nuggets vs. (5) Clippers
Devine: Nuggets in 7
Goodwill: Nuggets in 7
Haberstroh: Clippers in 6
Jensen: Nuggets in 7
O'Connor: Clippers in 7
Rohrbach: Nuggets in 7
Titus: Clippers in 6
This version of the Clippers absolutely can win this series, but this version of Nikola Jokić isn't outgunned against anybody. That, plus home court, tilts me slightly in Denver's favor. — Devine
Nikola Jokić and Kawhi Leonard engage the world in a battle of non-emotional chess and treat us to one of the most compelling first-round matchups we've seen in years. — Goodwill
Nuggets-Clippers series preview, key matchups and schedule